Joined Oct 2011
351 Posts | 25+
Europe
begging for the shop to finish my bike this week, Brno is only a one hour ride from where I live. but ffs, I won't go there by train!
for the race I expect JL and especially DP to be in a much better position than they were in Indy. I think I'll bet 5 euro or so for a Pedrosa win.
for the race I expect JL and especially DP to be in a much better position than they were in Indy. I think I'll bet 5 euro or so for a Pedrosa win.
povol
And to think that Ducati could have aquired the Double M kid had they asked Audi for a cash advance during the takeover.
And to think that Ducati could have aquired the Double M kid had they asked Audi for a cash advance during the takeover.
A lot can change in a week but right now the Kid is on top of his game.
MM
JL
DP
then all the grid filling bikes
MM
JL
DP
then all the grid filling bikes
Joined Oct 2006
25K Posts | 4K+
Your Mom's House
whammy
Well. If the question were only who is going to win? The possibilities would be down to 3. Even though there are only 4 win worthy bikes, its much harder to predict the podium because there are about 6 possible podium finishers, the unpredictability coming from VR sucking and Bradl occasionally riding like he belongs in the class, and though Alvaro is not likely gonna podium this year, he is riding a podium worthy bike...the guys infront of him keep "holding him back." So we can rule out: Nicky, Dovi, Smith, Spies, Iannone, Espargaro, Hernandez, Edwards, DePuniet, Abraham, Petrucci, Corti, Aoyama, Barbera, Pesek, Staring and Lavery.
So there are about 120 possibilities to pick the possible podium combination, if we gave all 6 riders equal chance to win; but for .... sake we know its unrealistic, as only 3 of the 6 are going to win. So, this actually helps narrow it down, as the first two positions are for all intents and purposes only 6 permutations out of the three possible winners (I'm just gonna assume VR isn't going to win)...so the likelyhood is a combination of one of these to win: MurderMac, Pedrobot, and JLo, with the other 2 podium positions left to the other 2 non-winners on the win-worthy bikes, and Rossi, plus the other 3 possible podium contenders. I suppose we could calculate the permutation for slots 2-3 among the other remaining 5 riders but again this would simply give us raw possibilities without giving the important element of likelyhood. For example, Jlo, Pedro, and MurderMac is likely going to beat Cal and Rossi, but its a toss up between Cal and Rossi, though these 2 tossers are more likely to beat Bradl, while Alvaro is truly a long shot (assuming he doesn't try to torpedo everybody "holding him up".
Well. If the question were only who is going to win? The possibilities would be down to 3. Even though there are only 4 win worthy bikes, its much harder to predict the podium because there are about 6 possible podium finishers, the unpredictability coming from VR sucking and Bradl occasionally riding like he belongs in the class, and though Alvaro is not likely gonna podium this year, he is riding a podium worthy bike...the guys infront of him keep "holding him back." So we can rule out: Nicky, Dovi, Smith, Spies, Iannone, Espargaro, Hernandez, Edwards, DePuniet, Abraham, Petrucci, Corti, Aoyama, Barbera, Pesek, Staring and Lavery.
So there are about 120 possibilities to pick the possible podium combination, if we gave all 6 riders equal chance to win; but for .... sake we know its unrealistic, as only 3 of the 6 are going to win. So, this actually helps narrow it down, as the first two positions are for all intents and purposes only 6 permutations out of the three possible winners (I'm just gonna assume VR isn't going to win)...so the likelyhood is a combination of one of these to win: MurderMac, Pedrobot, and JLo, with the other 2 podium positions left to the other 2 non-winners on the win-worthy bikes, and Rossi, plus the other 3 possible podium contenders. I suppose we could calculate the permutation for slots 2-3 among the other remaining 5 riders but again this would simply give us raw possibilities without giving the important element of likelyhood. For example, Jlo, Pedro, and MurderMac is likely going to beat Cal and Rossi, but its a toss up between Cal and Rossi, though these 2 tossers are more likely to beat Bradl, while Alvaro is truly a long shot (assuming he doesn't try to torpedo everybody "holding him up".
Tongue in cheek povol --------- I was referring to the fact that Ducati can not fix the current bike and need a totally new design.
Until they can develop such they need to hire someone with talent and courage such as 3M to ride the present variation of failure. Is Cal that rider? The answer to that question is "NO". It took Cal 2 seasons to come to terms with the M1 and it is the most stable bike on the grid. CC managed to crash it quite frequently while he acclimated himself to the bike. Will he get the Duc (known for crashes when pushed) to the front? The answer is "NO".
To win on the Ducati it must be riden as Stoner and Marc ride. Push the bike until it begins to crash and then control it to keep it from crashing. This is often referred to by Brits as "win it or bin it" style. Also note that the two mentioned riders move their fear factor a little bit deeper into the corner than the rest of MotoGP riders. They are not opposed to riding off line or even creating new lines on any course. They study their opposition and look for weaknesses then exploit those weaknesses. They are relentless in seeking more speed from the bike instead of letting the bike dictate the speed to be ridden at. In one word confidence.
After watching Cal I do not see him doing any of these things and in my judgement he is a poor fit for Ducati because he is lacking these traits. Ducati made a bad choice in a rider. Now Cal made an excellent choice. He gets enough funds to build a home and set himself up in business. A single rider putting it over on Corporate Ducati. Corse needs to open their eyes and look at themselves instead of rubbing a lamp hoping for a second miracle (Stoner was the first). Which brings to mind the deaf pig finding a mushroom or some such.
Think these things over and you will realize why Ducati will never win with the present bike rider combo or all combos they have on track now. Wrong chemistry.
Until they can develop such they need to hire someone with talent and courage such as 3M to ride the present variation of failure. Is Cal that rider? The answer to that question is "NO". It took Cal 2 seasons to come to terms with the M1 and it is the most stable bike on the grid. CC managed to crash it quite frequently while he acclimated himself to the bike. Will he get the Duc (known for crashes when pushed) to the front? The answer is "NO".
To win on the Ducati it must be riden as Stoner and Marc ride. Push the bike until it begins to crash and then control it to keep it from crashing. This is often referred to by Brits as "win it or bin it" style. Also note that the two mentioned riders move their fear factor a little bit deeper into the corner than the rest of MotoGP riders. They are not opposed to riding off line or even creating new lines on any course. They study their opposition and look for weaknesses then exploit those weaknesses. They are relentless in seeking more speed from the bike instead of letting the bike dictate the speed to be ridden at. In one word confidence.
After watching Cal I do not see him doing any of these things and in my judgement he is a poor fit for Ducati because he is lacking these traits. Ducati made a bad choice in a rider. Now Cal made an excellent choice. He gets enough funds to build a home and set himself up in business. A single rider putting it over on Corporate Ducati. Corse needs to open their eyes and look at themselves instead of rubbing a lamp hoping for a second miracle (Stoner was the first). Which brings to mind the deaf pig finding a mushroom or some such.
Think these things over and you will realize why Ducati will never win with the present bike rider combo or all combos they have on track now. Wrong chemistry.
Joined Jul 2007
5K Posts | 1K+
unda cheese
povol
I find it silly how people seem to have some magical discernable eye when describing particular riders style. Unless youve spent years racing and can understand what the bike is doing, it pretty much looks the same for most of the riders. The problem is the camera only focuses on the top 3 riders which happen to always be the same 3 riders. This ragged and smooth quality could probabaly be applied to most of the guys out there but because their up front suddenly their the only ones doing it. .... even Pedro lights up the rear regularly. Can anyone explain Yonny Hernandezs style? I doubt it. How about Nicky? It used to be a great topic when he was in front of the camera every week. How many slo mo cams of stoner did we see with the bike out of wack and people talk like he reinvented the wheel. Also the top bikes are so dialed in and nannied they have the ability to push harder then everyone else. Put the same cam on everyone and youll see similar footage.
I find it silly how people seem to have some magical discernable eye when describing particular riders style. Unless youve spent years racing and can understand what the bike is doing, it pretty much looks the same for most of the riders. The problem is the camera only focuses on the top 3 riders which happen to always be the same 3 riders. This ragged and smooth quality could probabaly be applied to most of the guys out there but because their up front suddenly their the only ones doing it. .... even Pedro lights up the rear regularly. Can anyone explain Yonny Hernandezs style? I doubt it. How about Nicky? It used to be a great topic when he was in front of the camera every week. How many slo mo cams of stoner did we see with the bike out of wack and people talk like he reinvented the wheel. Also the top bikes are so dialed in and nannied they have the ability to push harder then everyone else. Put the same cam on everyone and youll see similar footage.
