Assuming de Puniet and Bradl are equal, which is probably pretty fair considering Bradl is the reigning Moto2 World Champion and de Puniet just stepped off the worst bike on the grid, with a history of utterly destroying a riders' confidence for years to come (although my personal opinion is that de Puniet is the most underrated rider in MotoGP, and this is not the first time I've said this), it then falls to sponsorship. Considering de Puniet was linked to the ride for months, I have to believe that he had the backing for the ride. From what I've read today, it sounds like someone is backing Bradl to the same amount (whether that's personal sponsorship or Dorna, I don't know). I believe that the reason Bradl is looking like LCR's guy is that LCR don't want to work with de Puniet again. When that relationship ended a year ago, it sounded pretty ugly. I believe the only reason LCR were considering de Puniet was as an emergency in case they couldn't secure Dovizioso or Bautista or even Hopkins. I don't think they imagined Bradl would be able to stump up the money to join.
As far as Jum goes, I believe he may be on to something (and this is going to sound pretty familiar to some). The closest things we've had to direct comparisons to Bautista's results on the Suzuki have been Brno before Hopkins smashed his hand and de Puniet's ride on the Suzuki yesterday and today. Hopkins was quicker out of the box and lost out by less than a tenth in the second session, while de Puniet has done just about the same thing. Meanwhile, his first outing on the Honda was just three-tenths quicker than Bradl, who's never used carbon brakes before, nor has he ridden anything like a proper GP bike.
I've always been a big proponent of Bautista's, and he seems to be a pretty good guy, but performance-wise, we've never really seen him go out there and show up someone on the same machinery as him with the exception of Capirossi last season. Some would make the argument that Capirossi had lost all motivation to ride for Suzuki by about the midway point of last season. I don't mean to diminish Bautista's results in the premier class nor Capirossi's career, but is Capirossi really a good barometer of a competitive rider anymore? When was the last time he was?