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2024 silly season!

#22

#22

Joined Oct 2008
6K Posts | 5K+
In Cider
With all the talk going on, it's time to discuss changes for next season. Many riders are contracted, but we all know contracts are made to be broken. Looking through reports, outside of Bezecchi wanting more money and a better bike, and the open Yamaha seat, most team principles are saying they are happy with their lineups. But what they say vs what they really think are two different animals.
Here is my picks of changes.

Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team
Fabio Quartararo (end of 2024)
Pedro Acosta - currently Franco Morbidelli (end of 2023)

Ducati Lenovo Team
Francesco Bagnaia (end of 2024)
Enea Bastianini (end of 2024)

Aprilia Racing
Aleix Espargaro (end of 2024)
Maverick Vinales (end of 2024)

Repsol Honda Team
Marc Marquez (end of 2024)
Joan Mir (end of 2024)

Red Bull KTM Factory Racing
Jack Miller (end of 2024)
Brad Binder (end of 2024)

Gresini Racing MotoGP (Ducati)
Alex Marquez (end of 2023)
Tony Arbolino- currently Fabio di Giannantonio (end of 2023)

Prima Pramac Racing (Ducati)
Marco Bezzechi - Currently Johann Zarco (Ducati contract for 2023)
Jorge Martin (Ducati contract for 2024)


Mooney VR46 Racing Team (Ducati)
Luca Marini (end of 2023)
Franco Morbidelli- Currently Marco Bezzecchi (end of 2023)

RNF MotoGP Team (Aprilia)
Miguel Oliveira (Aprilia contract, end of 2024)
Raul Fernandez (Aprilia contract, end of 2024)

Tech3 GASGAS Factory Racing (KTM)
Pol Espargaro (KTM contract, end of 2024)
Augusto Fernandez (KTM contract end of 2023, option for 2024)

LCR Honda Castrol/Idemitsu
Alex Rins (Honda contract, end of 2024)
Ai Ogura- currently Takaaki Nakagami (Honda contract, end of 2023)

I hope Marquez switches teams, but he keeps toeing the official line that he is contracted to Honda and will see out his contract. As said in another thread I'd love to see Fabio on the Aprilia and Marc on the Factory KTM.
 
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Here's wot I think:
  • Fabio will try his hardest to break the contract, Yamaha will try their hardest to deny him the wish.
  • Marc will respect the contract
  • Morbidelli goes either to VR46 or Superbikes. Maybe even a testing role if there's nothing interesting lined up. Maybe LCR Honda if:
  • Mir reaches "mutual agreement" to part ways with Honda, Rins gets "promoted" to the Repsol seat. The question here is where does Mir go to.
  • Pol retires or is forced to retire by KTM, becomes test rider. Acosta will force their hand and he'll no doubt will have plenty of offers from other MotoGP teams.
  • Agree with Arbolino getting DiGia's seat
  • Agree with Bezz going to Pramac and Zarco forced to look elsewhere... unless Martín gets an enticing offer. Yamaha is known to have been pushing for him but will he want to go to that trash heap of a bike?
  • Aprilia keeps their rider lineup intact because of contractual reasons, they will (are?) however regret Raul's contract.
  • Naka out, next nepotistic Japanese kid in.
  • If Morbi doesn't go to VR46, Vietti gets the seat.
The key lies with Acosta. The pieces will fall once he decides what to do.
 
I agree about Acosta. Certainly if he is leading or wins the title, he has no reason to stay in Moto2 and will force KTM's hand. They will be fools to lose him over keeping someone like Pol.

I feel the same about Aprilia. In 1992 Ayrton Senna famously offered to drive for Williams for free. Marc is rich enough alone to say 'I'll ride for free on a 1 yr contract, then we can do a new contract for 2025-". Doubly so if he wants to go to KTM, for Red Bull have said they'll pay his salary.

If the Mir/Rins thing happens, I would bet on Mir wanting the Yamaha.
 
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If Marc got out and if Fabio got out of their contracts where could they end up? My guess is Marc along side his brother at Gresini and Fabio to aprillia. Raul out of gp as he should be. I could see Martin go to Yamaha because a factory seat is a factory seat. He lost his chance at ducati so why not. It doesn't seem like a good switch but being the #1 rider on a factory team is always appealing. Arbolino won't be going to VR46 since he is no longer part of the vr46 funny farm, but I do believe he will be on a ducati. So Zarco will be out maybe his only option will be Honda so by default he could end up there or out. More than likely Marc will stay at honda which means none of this will be anything but a fairytale. I think there is a higher chance of Fabio leaving but I still doubt it.
 
MdubSTYLIE said:
If Marc got out and if Fabio got out of their contracts where could they end up? My guess is Marc along side his brother at Gresini and Fabio to aprillia.
Click to expand...
I don't think we'll see Marc on a Satellite bike. He'd rather stay on Honda IMO.
MdubSTYLIE said:
Raul out of gp as he should be. I could see Martin go to Yamaha because a factory seat is a factory seat. He lost his chance at ducati so why not. It doesn't seem like a good switch but being the #1 rider on a factory team is always appealing.
Click to expand...
Crutchlow said the same thing in 2014, he'd rather a factory Ducati than a Satellite Yam. Sure, Martin isn;t in line for the factory team any time soon, but he gets de-facto factory equipment and I;ve read that he has soured to Yam of late given how they still aren't bringing any updates.
MdubSTYLIE said:
Arbolino won't be going to VR46 since he is no longer part of the vr46 funny farm, but I do believe he will be on a ducati. So Zarco will be out maybe his only option will be Honda so by default he could end up there or out. More than likely Marc will stay at honda which means none of this will be anything but a fairytale. I think there is a higher chance of Fabio leaving but I still doubt it.
Click to expand...
I'm guessing Zarco would have his palms greased by Ducati to go alongside Alvaro in WSBK? Either that or replace Pirro as the teams test rider, with the promise of 3-4 Wildcards a yr.
 
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#22 said:
I don't think we'll see Marc on a Satellite bike. He'd rather stay on Honda IMO.

Crutchlow said the same thing in 2014, he'd rather a factory Ducati than a Satellite Yam. Sure, Martin isn;t in line for the factory team any time soon, but he gets de-facto factory equipment and I;ve read that he has soured to Yam of late given how they still aren't bringing any updates.

I'm guessing Zarco would have his palms greased by Ducati to go alongside Alvaro in WSBK? Either that or replace Pirro as the teams test rider, with the promise of 3-4 Wildcards a yr.
Click to expand...
Zarco would do well in wsbk. I think that would be a good fit. I just hope he manages to get a win this year as his chances are coming to an end.
 
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Martin may need to take a risk if he wants to be world champion, it doesn't look like he will get a Factory Ducati seat and no one has won the world championship from a Satellite team in a mighty long time

If I was Acosta I'd go for the Pramac seat, it would give him plenty of podiums while he learns MotoGP and potentially a factory Ducati seat in a year or 2.

With Zarco loosing that seat to Acosta he should go WSBK factory Ducati

DiGi is bound to loose his seat, off to WSBK young man.
 
But is there room for him at Pramac? You pen him to replace Zarco, but I believe it is pretty much an open secret at this point that if Zarco is replaced by anyone, it will be Bezzechi.

Ducati and KTM certainly have an embarrassment of riches at the moment. How's this for a Crazy 2025 (or even 2024) grid?

Yamaha:
Joan Mir
Alonso Lopez

Repsol Honda
Alex Rins
??

Ducati Lenovo
Francesco Bagnaia
Enea Bastianini

Red Bull KTM
Marc Marquez
Brad Binder

Aprilia Racing
Fabio Quartararo
Miguel Oliveira

Pramac Ducati:
Jorge Martin
Marco Bezzechi

Gresini Ducati
Alex Marquez
Tony Arbolino

VR46 Ducati
Luca Marini
Franco Morbidelli

LCR Honda
Daniel Holgado
Ai Ogura

RNF Aprilia
Maverick Vinales
Raul Fernandez

Gas Gas
Jack Miller
Pedro Acosta
 
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GPone is hinting at the following (presumably for 2024 but doesn't say)

Marquez & Binder (Red Bull KTM);
Espargaro & Fernandez (GasGas KTM);
Miller & Acosta (Husqvarna KTM).
 
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KTM has until the end of June to make a decision about Acosta or he will be free to talk to other manufacturers.
 
#22 said:
GPone is hinting at the following (presumably for 2024 but doesn't say)

Marquez & Binder (Red Bull KTM);
Espargaro & Fernandez (GasGas KTM);
Miller & Acosta (Husqvarna KTM).
Click to expand...
If KTM have that line up and a bike same or better than the 23 they are a serious threat to Ducati.
 
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Did folks hear in commentary in P2? Matt Birt said there are rumours swinging around the paddock that neither Joan Mir nor Alex Rins would be on Hondas next yr and that one, or both could end up on a Yamaha.

So with that in mind:

Monster Yamaha:
Alex Rins
Joan Mir

Aprilia Factory:
Aleix Espargaro
Fabio Quartararo

????
 
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