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2024 Round 20 Petronas GP of Malaysia - Petronas Sepang International Circuit

AnnoyingTwit

AnnoyingTwit

Joined Nov 2012
991 Posts | 997+
Selamat datang ke Malaysia.

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Last year, it was a win for Bastianini, with Marquez (not that one, Alex) second and Bagnaia third. Martin came in fourth. Looks like yet another Ducati track. Qualifying was Bagnaia, Martin, Bastianini, and AMarquez. MM93 qualified in 20th.

This year I predict that something similar will happen, except with a different Marquez within the first four. Though, as mentioned in other threads, there seems to be quite some chance that at least one of those riders will drop it somewhere.

Martin can seal the championship in Malaysia. But, he would need to score enough additional points over Bagnaia that it looks pretty unlikely unless Bagnaia scores two DNFs.

In Moto3, there are records still to fall (or not). I believe that David Alonso is tied with Marquez for the longest winning streak (five races) in the junior category. So, providing I have remembered that correctly, that's ready to fall.

In Moto2, perhaps Canet will go further in showing us what could have been if he didn't have all those DNFs.

The weather looks interesting, but of course this is a prediction a week early.

Screenshot 2024-10-27 153739.jpeg
 
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The math's are easy for the chase now

Pecco max score possible is 510 points.

Martin currently has 453, he needs just 58 points to put Pecco out of reach.

Interestingly, this is exactly second in each of the upcoming two rounds of sprints and races. Each point that Pecco does not pick up on the way, makes it exponentially easier for Jorge.

After last weekend, Martin must have a bounce in confidence. He doesn't even have to win; to win it all & he has luck on his side.

How often does a rider crash in Q2 with over four minutes remaining and still gets the front row? Not many, If any.
 
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An alternative way of looking at the numbers is that Martin is currently 17 points ahead of Bagnaia. There are a maximum of 37 points available at a race weekened. Hence, if Martin scores 21 points more than Bagnaia in Malaysia, the championship is his. I'm not quite sure how countback on number of wins works given there are both feature races and sprints. But, Bagnaia has more wins in both races and sprints. Hence, 21 points more than Bagnaia is needed.

Looking at the number of wins, it's a marvel that Martin is ahead. That's what settling for second place will do for ya.

I was thinking that Bagnaia would need to double DNF to make it likely that Martin would win the championship in Malaysia. But, if Bagnaia wins the sprint with Martin second, and then Bagnaia DNFs in the feature race with Martin winning we get a Martin championship. Along with a whole host of other scenarios. I predict the championship will go to the last race, however.
 
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I'm going to double down on my earlier prediction that the championship will be decided in the sprint at Valencia. That would mean that we come out of Malaysia with Martin at least 14 points ahead, but since that requires him to win the sprint with a DNF from Pecco, I'll say more like 18-23 points ahead. Actually that scenario makes it feel more likely that Bagnaia will crash trying to keep the championship alive. Most likely this will be the 3rd year in a row where the championship goes down to the last weekend, which is pretty exciting. I also predict a long two-weeks before Valencia. :)
 
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Barbedwirebikerr said:
The math's are easy for the chase now

Pecco max score possible is 510 points.

Martin currently has 453, he needs just 58 points to put Pecco out of reach.

Interestingly, this is exactly second in each of the upcoming two rounds of sprints and races. Each point that Pecco does not pick up on the way, makes it exponentially easier for Jorge.

After last weekend, Martin must have a bounce in confidence. He doesn't even have to win; to win it all & he has luck on his side.

How often does a rider crash in Q2 with over four minutes remaining and still gets the front row? Not many, If any.
Click to expand...
Bagnaia 436 + 12 + 25 + 12 + 25 = 510 (all wins)
Martin 453 + 9 + 20 + 9 + 20 = 511 (all seconds)

Bagnaia 436 + DNF + DNF + 12 + 25 = 473
Martin 453 + 12 + 25 = 480 World champion at next round
Martin 453 + 12 + 20 = 475 still world champion

Bagnaia 436 + 9 + 20 + 9 + 25 = 494
Martin 453 + 12 + 25 + 12 + DNF = 502

Bagnaia will need to win everything and have Martin have a less than perfect result in one of the races. Martin just needs to be consistent
 
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Sennas_Caress said:
Isn't that a bit late in the game......?
Click to expand...
I'm not quite sure I understand what you mean.

I mean a scenario like:

(In Malaysia)

Bagnaia wins the sprint, and Martin is second. Martin is now 14 points ahead.

In the feature race, Martin is first, with Bagnaia second but being harried by an unnamed third rider. Bagnaia is punted out by that unnamed third rider, and Martin wins. Martin is now 39 points ahead, and champion.

That's what I meant by the championship being decided by someone being punted out.
 
AnnoyingTwit said:
I'm not quite sure I understand what you mean.

I mean a scenario like:

(In Malaysia)

Bagnaia wins the sprint, and Martin is second. Martin is now 14 points ahead.

In the feature race, Martin is first, with Bagnaia second but being harried by an unnamed third rider. Bagnaia is punted out by that unnamed third rider, and Martin wins. Martin is now 39 points ahead, and champion.
Click to expand...

We've already had an incident where a third rider punted out Bagnaia, thereby handing the title to a compatriot
 
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mikesbytes said:
Bagnaia 436 + 12 + 25 + 12 + 25 = 510 (all wins)
Martin 453 + 9 + 20 + 9 + 20 = 511 (all seconds)

Bagnaia 436 + DNF + DNF + 12 + 25 = 473
Martin 453 + 12 + 25 = 480 World champion at next round
Martin 453 + 12 + 20 = 475 still world champion

Bagnaia 436 + 9 + 20 + 9 + 25 = 494
Martin 453 + 12 + 25 + 12 + DNF = 502

Bagnaia will need to win everything and have Martin have a less than perfect result in one of the races. Martin just needs to be consistent
Click to expand...
And be consistent on the best bike by far on the grid. That there are 4 of but only 3 guys can ride the bike consistently.
The thorn in the side of both guys, Marquez is unlikely to have a particularly strong result and be in front of either of them.
That leaves only Bastiannini to play the spoiler. Martin has to finish, Pecco has to win.
Pecco could absolutely do it on his own, Ducati could absolutely ensure it somehow, either could DNF and cost themselves the title. But Pecco needing to beat Martin makes me think he is more likely to make a mistake if he isn’t as quick as Martin, rather than the other way around.
 
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Sennas_Caress said:
He can, but now he needs help.
Click to expand...
This is not unusual in championships. E.g. up until last race Canet could still win Moto2, but would need help. (Which he didn't get.)

I think we're talking about different things. I'm just saying that I don't want there to be a punting and that particular punting is the action that seals the championship.
 
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