2008 winner according to betting odds

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (wafu46 @ Jan 31 2008, 04:48 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>It does make you wonder who is actually coming up with the odds. I mean if you were just looking at last years performance as an indicator how does someone who came third in the championship get best odds.

I love Rossi but I think he is in for a real fight this year. If they will give me those odds for a single race I would put some cash on Vermulian. Don't really like the guy but he will win a race or two this year....at least.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BarryMachine @ Jan 30 2008, 12:39 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Its just betting odds .....

It also takes into account how much moolah they think they can entice from "fans"

It doesn't just go on performance expected

As an example, they know Rossi has a very loyal fan base so they know a lot of folk will put money on him, so if he does win the payout could be enormous!! ..... so its all Risks of that person winning and if it happens ,,, how much can they lose ..... or more to the point how can they entice the punters and make the most money ......

It goes close to expected performance but just as an example look at last years odds, and then how it all ended up ...... the 3 Stoner fans would have made a squidillion

To quote myself ......

Again I will try to explain ...... if Rossi really did win, lots of folk will get a payout. Rossi fans are the most numerous, and I would say by the look of the odds, the most willing to put money on it . So in order to maximise profits the betting firm must minimise the loss if he wins. So the way to do that is to drop the odds ( = payback multiplier ). So if say 1,000,000 rossi fans put $1 on ..... the payout will be a bit over $3M. Now if we just took the odds for what chance he actually has of winning lets say since he came third last year and 2nd before that it may be 6:1??? ( Speculative only an actuary would are venture to guess this as well IMO ) So now the payout would be $6M!!!!!!

So it is a big trade off ....... If they put the real odds the Rossi fans get the ..... and walk off ..... betting is lower ...... so to entice more to bet they make the odds look more attractive maybe they would like to put say 6:1 ...... but it looks bad so the punters don't risk it. ( Even the devout .... money talks ) ...... So to counter the real odds to get the punters in they win by making Rossi look like a "good thing" ...... the fans go "yeah!! I'll back him!! he'll be back!! " in a chorus of millions and if "yeah!! happens" the betting agency doesn't go to the wall. ...... while there are so many Rossi fans out there the betting agencies are cleaning up .... or at least getting creative with ways to make them part with their money ........ "making hay whie the sun shines" ... I think its termed

God I would hate to be an Actuary ..... Its like mixing phsychology, marketting, business and accounting ....... all in one

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BarryMachine @ Jan 31 2008, 06:11 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>To quote myself ......

Again I will try to explain ...... if Rossi really did win, lots of folk will get a payout. Rossi fans are the most numerous, and I would say by the look of the odds, the most willing to put money on it . So in order to maximise profits the betting firm must minimise the loss if he wins. So the way to do that is to drop the odds ( = payback multiplier ). So if say 1,000,000 rossi fans put $1 on ..... the payout will be a bit over $3M. Now if we just took the odds for what chance he actually has of winning lets say since he came third last year and 2nd before that it may be 6:1??? ( Speculative only an actuary would are venture to guess this as well IMO ) So now the payout would be $6M!!!!!!
That is all very true. (except the imaginary odds of course )
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <div class='quotemain'>So it is a big trade off ....... If they put the real odds the Rossi fans get the ..... and walk off ..... betting is lower ...... so to entice more to bet they make the odds look more attractive maybe they would like to put say 6:1 ...... but it looks bad so the punters don't risk it. ( Even the devout .... money talks ) ...... So to counter the real odds to get the punters in they win by making Rossi look like a "good thing" ...... the fans go "yeah!! I'll back him!! he'll be back!! " in a chorus of millions and if "yeah!! happens" the betting agency doesn't go to the wall. ...... while there are so many Rossi fans out there the betting agencies are cleaning up .... or at least getting creative with ways to make them part with their money ........ "making hay whie the sun shines" ... I think its termed
And then you come up with this .......... As you said first, the losses would be to big, and AFAIK a lot of the changes in the odds has to do with who people bet on at current odds. If they set 6:1 for Rossi, "everyone" would put in a bet for him. As you said money talks, to get great odds for my favorite doesn't piss me off, it makes me happy. Keeping the fans happy! Pfft.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <div class='quotemain'>God I would hate to be an Actuary ..... Its like mixing phsychology, marketting, business and accounting ....... all in one
With that "psycology" I think it is a wise desition to stay away too.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Babelfish @ Jan 31 2008, 07:10 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>That is all very true. (except the imaginary odds of course )

And then you come up with this .......... As you said first, the losses would be to big, and AFAIK a lot of the changes in the odds has to do with who people bet on at current odds. If they set 6:1 for Rossi, "everyone" would put in a bet for him. As you said money talks, to get great odds for my favorite doesn't piss me off, it makes me happy. Keeping the fans happy! Pfft.

With that "psycology" I think it is a wise desition to stay away too.


BUt you in your "reaction" have just shown precisely what they are allowing for ...... emotional fans

Will you be putting money on him? Whats your price

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BarryMachine @ Jan 31 2008, 09:44 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>BUt you in your "reaction" have just shown precisely what they are allowing for ...... emotional fans

True, at the same time I don't bet on Rossi now, with those odds, but I would if the odds where anything near your imaginary "true" odds. So, you are right, the are allowing for emotional fans but rather with the oposite logic as the one you used. They know they get enough "true believers" at the current odds, if not the odds go up, that's how it works when there are no significant news from the track. In other words the odds is not driven by a sudden joy of the lowest odds from Rossi fans, rather a optimism and blief in Rossi as a winner. People betting now would be at least as happy as I would be with a 1:6 odds. That should be odds on Rossi that even you could bet on.

Hayden needs to be above Melandri and Lorenzo . LOL what is whith Nakano higher than Edwards hahahahah! I am telling you know, if .... hits the fan like in 2006 you know hayden will be there to clean up the mess.....

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Noodlerizer @ Feb 1 2008, 12:11 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Hayden needs to be above Melandri and Lorenzo .

I have a feeling the Honda is gonna blow.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (stop_killing_dead_things @ Jan 29 2008, 12:30 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>what you said + i wouldnt put marco in front of nicky either

im starting to think differently about that already, hayden is struggling now even so god help him when the season starts. i really dont want hayden to do crap again this year, the critics would have a field day