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2008 winner according to betting odds

M

motogpfan

Joined Jan 2008
7 Posts | 0+
As of today, these are the chances that bwin.com give to each rider:

Valentino Rossi (ITA/Yamaha) >>>> 31.06%
Casey Stoner (AUS/Ducati) >>>> 27.98%
Dani Pedrosa (ESP/Honda) >>>> 14.89%
Marco Melandri (ITA/Ducati) >>>> 6.30%
Jorge Lorenzo (ESP/Yamaha) >>>> 5.04%
Nicky Hayden (USA/Honda) >>>> 4.44%
Chris Vermeulen (AUS/Suzuki) >>>> 2.16%
John Hopkins (USA/Kawasaki) >>>> 1.84%
Loris Capirossi (ITA/Suzuki) >>>> 1.84%
Randy de Puniet (FRA/Honda) >>>> 0.75%
Andrea Dovizioso (ITA/Honda) >>>> 0.75%
Anthony West (AUS/Kawasaki) >>>> 0.75%
Alex de Angelis (RSM/Honda) >>>> 0.58%
Toni Elías (ESP/Ducati) >>>> 0.50%
James Toseland (GBR/Yamaha) >>>> 0.50%
Sylvain Guintoli (FRA/Ducati) >>>> 0.30%
Shinya Nakano (JPN/Honda) >>>> 0.19%
Colin Edwards (USA/Yamaha) >>>> 0.15%

Do you agree with bwin.com statistics?

May I bet against them? I think thet are wrong about Hayden!!!
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (MotoGpFan @ Jan 29 2008, 10:13 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>As of today, these are the chances that bwin.com give to each rider:

Valentino Rossi (ITA/Yamaha) >>>> 31.06%
Casey Stoner (AUS/Ducati) >>>> 27.98%
Dani Pedrosa (ESP/Honda) >>>> 14.89%
Marco Melandri (ITA/Ducati) >>>> 6.30%
Jorge Lorenzo (ESP/Yamaha) >>>> 5.04%
Nicky Hayden (USA/Honda) >>>> 4.44%
Chris Vermeulen (AUS/Suzuki) >>>> 2.16%
John Hopkins (USA/Kawasaki) >>>> 1.84%
Loris Capirossi (ITA/Suzuki) >>>> 1.84%
Randy de Puniet (FRA/Honda) >>>> 0.75%
Andrea Dovizioso (ITA/Honda) >>>> 0.75%
Anthony West (AUS/Kawasaki) >>>> 0.75%
Alex de Angelis (RSM/Honda) >>>> 0.58%
Toni Elías (ESP/Ducati) >>>> 0.50%
James Toseland (GBR/Yamaha) >>>> 0.50%
Sylvain Guintoli (FRA/Ducati) >>>> 0.30%
Shinya Nakano (JPN/Honda) >>>> 0.19%
Colin Edwards (USA/Yamaha) >>>> 0.15%

Do you agree with bwin.com statistics?

May I bet against them? I think thet are wrong about Hayden!!!

i dont understand how they can put a class rookie above a former world champ?

is lorenzo that good, or is the yam/michelin/rookie combo that great?
<
 
Well... for me there are some BIG mistakes (or chance to get some money
<
):

1. I guess is not that clear that Rossi is the favourite (neither are the Yamahas).

2. To me, best bike will be the Ducatis, so at least Elias should have more chances to win.

3. Hayden: more than half chance than Pedrosa... they should be kidding!
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (MotoGpFan @ Jan 29 2008, 10:13 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>As of today, these are the chances that bwin.com give to each rider:

Valentino Rossi (ITA/Yamaha) >>>> 31.06%
Casey Stoner (AUS/Ducati) >>>> 27.98%
Dani Pedrosa (ESP/Honda) >>>> 14.89%
Marco Melandri (ITA/Ducati) >>>> 6.30%
Jorge Lorenzo (ESP/Yamaha) >>>> 5.04%
Nicky Hayden (USA/Honda) >>>> 4.44%
Chris Vermeulen (AUS/Suzuki) >>>> 2.16%
John Hopkins (USA/Kawasaki) >>>> 1.84%
Loris Capirossi (ITA/Suzuki) >>>> 1.84%
Randy de Puniet (FRA/Honda) >>>> 0.75%
Andrea Dovizioso (ITA/Honda) >>>> 0.75%
Anthony West (AUS/Kawasaki) >>>> 0.75%
Alex de Angelis (RSM/Honda) >>>> 0.58%
Toni Elías (ESP/Ducati) >>>> 0.50%
James Toseland (GBR/Yamaha) >>>> 0.50%
Sylvain Guintoli (FRA/Ducati) >>>> 0.30%
Shinya Nakano (JPN/Honda) >>>> 0.19%
Colin Edwards (USA/Yamaha) >>>> 0.15%

WHAT?!!?
<


Rossi above Stoner?

Jorge above Nicky?

James above Colin?
<
 
The odds will obviously keep changing as testing goes on, and more so after the first couple of races... For the moment I only agree that the top three contenders are likely to be Stoner, Rossi and Pedrosa.
I am traveling and could not follow the Sepang tests properly, from what I am reading here and there it seems the fastest race pace was Stoner's, followed by Rossi...
<
 
Taken as a pure betting proposition, still good odds for dani. I don't believe his hand will affect his season significantly.

Might have a splash on nicky - former world champion on a resurgent honda; we know he has the staying pedigree to get the distance
<
.
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (phleg @ Jan 29 2008, 11:01 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>WHAT?!!?
<


Rossi above Stoner?

Jorge above Nicky?

James above Colin?
<



what you said + i wouldnt put marco in front of nicky either, thats not a down right mistake like the others though, just a hunch
 
Its just betting odds .....

It also takes into account how much moolah they think they can entice from "fans"
<


It doesn't just go on performance expected

As an example, they know Rossi has a very loyal fan base so they know a lot of folk will put money on him, so if he does win the payout could be enormous!! ..... so its all Risks of that person winning and if it happens ,,, how much can they lose ..... or more to the point how can they entice the punters and make the most money ......

It goes close to expected performance but just as an example look at last years odds, and then how it all ended up ...... the 3 Stoner fans would have made a squidillion
<
<
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (MotoGpFan @ Jan 29 2008, 05:33 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Well... for me there are some BIG mistakes (or chance to get some money
<
):

1. I guess is not that clear that Rossi is the favourite (neither are the Yamahas).

2. To me, best bike will be the Ducatis, so at least Elias should have more chances to win.

3. Hayden: more than half chance than Pedrosa... they should be kidding!


pedrosa - more chance than hayden - THAT SHOULD BE OBVIOUS - I don't particularly like him, but pedrosa rides faster and wins more than hayden - hayden made his biggest mistake by not going to ducati - now he's the honda tester - if pedrosa wins on the bike he'll (pedrosa) take credit for winning & if he doesn't win he'll blame it on wrong development.

my bet 2008 is between rossi, stoner & pedropop
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BarryMachine @ Jan 29 2008, 02:39 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Its just betting odds .....

It also takes into account how much moolah they think they can entice from "fans"
<


It doesn't just go on performance expected

As an example, they know Rossi has a very loyal fan base so they know a lot of folk will put money on him, so if he does win the payout could be enormous!! ..... so its all Risks of that person winning and if it happens ,,, how much can they lose ..... or more to the point how can they entice the punters and make the most money ......

It goes close to expected performance but just as an example look at last years odds, and then how it all ended up ...... the 3 Stoner fans would have made a squidillion
<
<

You are of course absolutely correct but this looks like a melbourne cup market where there are once a year bettors choosing horses because they like their colours etc. I would favour stoner and rossi slightly ahead of pedrosa but they are not value at these odds, and he is at his current odds. If pedrosa misses a few races( he won't with his current injury) or has a few dnfs for other reasons and nicky has some good early results honda may refocus bringing him into calculations, and he at least has a chance of being on a championship capable bike.
 
Nicky's odds are calling my name.

He is an outsider no doubt, but if things get messy we all know where he will end up. He fields low odds because Honda nearly sabotaged his chance at winning a title and the Honda 800 is a nightmare of a machine.

He is a long shot, but not that long of a shot.

Hopper looks enticing too. The Kwak is not that great, but they did test the screamer I-4 at Sepang.

More power on the way for Kwak?
<
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (J4rn0 @ Jan 29 2008, 07:35 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>it seems the fastest race pace was Stoner's, followed by Rossi...
<

nope... 1. stoner 2. ?edwards? 3. hayden 4. rossi
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (stop_killing_dead_things @ Jan 29 2008, 08:30 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>i wouldnt put marco in front of nicky either
yes... it looks like marco is really struggling with the duc. it does'nt look good for him at the moment
<
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BarryMachine @ Jan 29 2008, 09:39 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Its just betting odds .....

It also takes into account how much moolah they think they can entice from "fans"
<


It doesn't just go on performance expected

As an example, they know Rossi has a very loyal fan base so they know a lot of folk will put money on him, so if he does win the payout could be enormous!! ..... so its all Risks of that person winning and if it happens ,,, how much can they lose ..... or more to the point how can they entice the punters and make the most money ......

It goes close to expected performance but just as an example look at last years odds, and then how it all ended up ...... the 3 Stoner fans would have made a squidillion
<
<

their as bad as the journos...
<
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (michaelm @ Jan 29 2008, 03:05 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>You are of course absolutely correct but this looks like a melbourne cup market where there are once a year bettors choosing horses because they like their colours etc. I would favour stoner and rossi slightly ahead of pedrosa but they are not value at these odds, and he is at his current odds. If pedrosa misses a few races( he won't with his current injury) or has a few dnfs for other reasons and nicky has some good early results honda may refocus bringing him into calculations, and he at least has a chance of being on a championship capable bike.

You are absolutly right. In addition I think some of the new comers get better odds because of stoner last year. No one saw that comming and it just proves that the new ones (even though Stoner wasn't new) can be big surprices, especialy on a factory team. Hayden is a "known measurment" by now, Lorenzo not so. Finally, this is not about what position they expect them to end up with but who might win, big defference.
 
Right! These are the chances to win. I'll try to find if there are some odds on how will be the podium or so.
 
It does make you wonder who is actually coming up with the odds. I mean if you were just looking at last years performance as an indicator how does someone who came third in the championship get best odds.

I love Rossi but I think he is in for a real fight this year. If they will give me those odds for a single race I would put some cash on Vermulian. Don't really like the guy but he will win a race or two this year....at least.
 
I'd be spreading my money out between melandri, vermuelen, and edwards. Even if Edwards only wins once you could easily come out on top.
 

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