Why he'll win it...why he won't...

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (J4rn0 @ Aug 7 2008, 09:07 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>---
After the end of the Laguna race, I told my friends who had been watching the GP with me: "let's see how Casey reacts to this. If he says it was a great race and he hopes to have more duels like that and be the winner, it is a sign of strength on his part. If he takes it badly, then Rossi has a real chance to take the WC back."
Well, he has taken it badly, hasn't he. So I am inclined to say that it looks good for Rossi.



And your idea of a few words ........ "we'll see: ..... is taking it badly!?? ......... I think this part is just a "mid season break occupier" ...... nothing more ..... nothing less ......... I think you guys have to remember that the day after Laguna Stoner was probably on his way home for a break ..... then the day after that he was probably out in a paddock with a horse ........ may even have been laughing about the whole thing ....... I really think too much is being read into it ......... though I do think it has "ticked boxes" in Stoners head for future reference for racing ( he's a mchine like that ) ....... but .. I'm sure that after some hundreds of races ...... one tends to get a bit blase'.

I still think Stoner reacted in a too controlled manner ....... its part of the problem with motogp to me today ..... its too PC ..... and aimed at "bums on seats" ...... and as such it has aquired much of the the quality of entrigue and outrage of a daytime serial soap opera, when the racing stops. And the exaggerations that go with it

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (yamaka46 @ Aug 6 2008, 10:28 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>I have a great deal of faith in Rossi,.
You have every reason to have strong faith in rossi even based only on his performances this year without need for recourse to his past achievements; this was more or less my point. By my count he has finished 1st or second in the last 8 races except for assen where he put the bike down, winning 4. If he doesn't put the bike down again and he and yamaha otherwise continue this form casey needs to win 6 races and finish second in the other to beat him, which would seem a tough ask.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BarryMachine @ Aug 7 2008, 12:38 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>And your idea of a few words ........ "we'll see: ..... is taking it badly!?? .........
did you actually hear the post race interview barrym ? he said a little more than "we'll see" ! geez casey really can do no wrong on your eyes

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (#46 @ Aug 7 2008, 12:15 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>BTW, I wonder who voted "Other".... And who's the "Other" ?...


I think that it's somebody who is leaving in the past and voted for Lorenzo

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<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (yamaka46 @ Aug 7 2008, 01:11 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>That might be a too simplistic approach. I think that Stoner has yet to fall apart due to pressure from Rossi despite a fair amount being applied last year.

At the end of the day, as Stoner said, "we'll see".

I didn't say he is cracking under pressure--he isn't, the boy is pretty strong. But his bad reaction following the Laguna defeat IS a sign of weakness that does not depend on any mind games by Rossi--it's just his character probably.

He always rides like a god just like Pedro, plus he never gives up and always aims for victory, BUT he's still more a pacer than a racer--because when obliged to race really hard in a duel or in the pack, he does show some signs of stress, apparently. Or doesn't he.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (J4rn0 @ Aug 8 2008, 04:56 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>I didn't say he is cracking under pressure--he isn't, the boy is pretty strong. But his bad reaction following the Laguna defeat IS a sign of weakness that does not depend on any mind games by Rossi--it's just his character probably.

He always rides like a god just like Pedro, plus he never gives up and always aims for victory, BUT he's still more a pacer than a racer--because when obliged to race really hard in a duel or in the pack, he does show some signs of stress, apparently. Or doesn't he.


You can't base that on one race J4rn0
Won in the wet @ Donnington last season from 12th on the first corner.
Passed everyone ( cleanly ) and was in the lead by about the halfway mark
He stood up well @ Qatar, China and Catalunya last season to intense pressure.
Did Stoner have a straight line speed advantage in those races? Absolutely.
Did Vale have a braking advantage @ Laguna? Absolutely.

Vale went wide @ Shanghai 2007 because he had to try to make up the straight line speed disadvantage by being way late on the brakes. Casey did the same @ Laguna because of his brake disadvantage. Same deal, both riders pushed a little too hard trying to make up a deficit in their bikes characteristics.

Oh and if Vale had come off when he went in the dirt @ the corkscrew, would you be saying he doesn't like racing? He gets too stressed? Of course not. They are on the limit, these things happen.

I voted Rossi obviously!!

Things being as tight as they are, even a crystal ball would be useless in predicting the WC

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Frizzle @ Aug 8 2008, 11:38 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>You can't base that on one race J4rn0
Won in the wet @ Donnington last season from 12th on the first corner.
Passed everyone ( cleanly ) and was in the lead by about the halfway mark
He stood up well @ Qatar, China and Catalunya last season to intense pressure.
Did Stoner have a straight line speed advantage in those races? Absolutely.
Did Vale have a braking advantage @ Laguna? Absolutely.

Vale went wide @ Shanghai 2007 because he had to try to make up the straight line speed disadvantage by being way late on the brakes. Casey did the same @ Laguna because of his brake disadvantage. Same deal, both riders pushed a little too hard trying to make up a deficit in their bikes characteristics.

Oh and if Vale had come off when he went in the dirt @ the corkscrew, would you be saying he doesn't like racing? He gets too stressed? Of course not. They are on the limit, these things happen.

A feeling is not based on statistics--my feeling about Stoner after Laguna is not based on one race or several races, but on how he reacted in that extremely significant moment. Feelings can be wrong--just like statistics, who knows.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (J4rn0 @ Aug 9 2008, 12:47 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>A feeling is not based on statistics--my feeling about Stoner after Laguna is not based on one race or several races, but on how he reacted in that extremely significant moment. Feelings can be wrong--just like statistics, who knows.
Your views are usually balanced and I agree this is one interpretation of his post-race reaction. He is not unknown for heat of the moment statements though or known for backing down, and I think showed for a large number of laps before his error that he can race even with a legendary dogfighter under extreme pressure. In my view his one error was not that much more severe than rossi's at the corkscrew, and reflective of impatience and loss of concentration whilst perhaps planning his next move as much as anything.

He was much criticised for causing the accident which led to gibernau being injured in 2006 and it is possible made decisions about how he would race in future after this. The way he rides a bike and his reaction when he crashes on his own do not suggest he has much fear to me.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (michaelm @ Aug 9 2008, 04:41 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Your views are usually balanced and I agree this is one interpretation of his post-race reaction. He is not unknown for heat of the moment statements though or known for backing down, and I think showed for a large number of laps before his error that he can race even with a legendary dogfighter under extreme pressure. In my view his one error was not that much more severe than rossi's at the corkscrew, and reflective of impatience and loss of concentration whilst perhaps planning his next move as much as anything.

He was much criticised for causing the accident which led to gibernau being injured in 2006 and it is possible made decisions about how he would race in future after this. The way he rides a bike and his reaction when he crashes on his own do not suggest he has much fear to me.

I of course agree that a man like Stoner is not afraid of anything or anybody--when I say that I read his momentary reaction as a sign of weakness I do not forget for a moment what kind of guy we are talking about. It is a very relative 'weakness' in relation to his WC challenge with a certain Valentino Rossi, the dogfight master (whom anyway he has already beaten in the past). That's why I was kind of surprised to hear such self-defensive words from him.

My feeling would have been the reverse if he had been positive and said 'I made a mistake but next time I'lll be the winner'. That would have been a (relative) sign of strength. It's all relative--and hey, if you remember my old posts you know these two guys are 'my' guys and my hopes about seeing a close world title battle between the two of them are coming true

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (J4rn0 @ Aug 9 2008, 08:39 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>My feeling would have been the reverse if he had been positive and said 'I made a mistake but next time I'lll be the winner'. That would have been a (relative) sign of strength. It's all relative--and hey, if you remember my old posts you know these two guys are 'my' guys and my hopes about seeing a close world title battle between the two of them are coming true
I am not saying you are definitely wrong. I guess this time he was just plain outridden on what appeared to be a superior bike which may have challenged his self-belief more than previous victories by valentino over him where he could point at least vaguely to some other factor such as poor tyre choice, circuit not suiting the ducati, the ducati not being well sorted etc; even with rossi's great victory at assen last year stoner had crashed in the warm-up.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (J4rn0 @ Aug 9 2008, 06:39 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>these two guys are 'my' guys and my hopes about seeing a close world title battle between the two of them are coming true

Bravo!

BEST RIDER + GOOD BIKE = VALENTINO ROSSI + YAMAHA
GOOD RIDER + BEST BIKE = CASEY STONER + DUCATI
GOOD RIDER + GOOD BIKE = DANI PEDROSA + HONDA

...Rider does matter, so I guess the final will be :
1. Rossi
2. Stoner
3. Pedrosa

Looks to me as though Rossi will win WC by a whisker. 25 points up at the mo with 7 rounds to go.
If Stoner wins all and Rossi second in all then Stoner wins WC by 8 points. Cant see Rossi not winning another race all season. Plus to add to the mix, you have a resurgent Pedrosa and Lorenzo, Rossi would love one of them to take points from Stoner. DNF's could be involved, but cant see Rossi risking it all, and the Ducati is pretty reliable.

Hope calculations are right!!

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (mr-brightside @ Aug 11 2008, 10:59 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Looks to me as though Rossi will win WC by a whisker. 25 points up at the mo with 7 rounds to go.
If Stoner wins all and Rossi second in all then Stoner wins WC by 8 points. Cant see Rossi not winning another race all season. Plus to add to the mix, you have a resurgent Pedrosa and Lorenzo, Rossi would love one of them to take points from Stoner. DNF's could be involved, but cant see Rossi risking it all, and the Ducati is pretty reliable.

Hope calculations are right!!
By my calculation 7 wins to stoner and 7 seconds to rossi gives it to stoner by 10 points; not extremely likely .

6 wins to stoner and 1 second against 6 seconds by rossi and 1 win by my calculation makes them even on points with stoner taking the championship by virtue of more race wins; not very likely either.

Barring rossi having mechanical problems or putting the bike down I think stoner is the one who needs pedrosa or someone else to take points from rossi.

Dani will take it, the guy is angry and out for justice.

Will go down to the wire between them three at Valencia with Dani squeezing it. I think Jorge will have a factor to play, I can see him wiping someone out somewhere down the line.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Haga @ Aug 11 2008, 07:14 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Dani will take it, the guy is angry and out for justice.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (michaelm @ Aug 11 2008, 12:32 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>By my calculation 7 wins to stoner and 7 seconds to rossi gives it to stoner by 10 points; not extremely likely .

I was close!!