The end of Honda? (GP and WSBK)

Good discussion to have.

I agree regarding no change in 2024. They are still on the out fringes of the top ten and I think without Marc, they will likely not get anywhere near a podium. I seem to recall it used to be the generally accepted statement that Honda didn't care about their WSBK program (through Ten Kate in the old days) while the GP team was winning but as you said, neither is winning now.

They have offloaded a large number of personnel from the F1 engine program to MGP in 2022, but they will be back in F1 in 2026. At the moment, I think the main hope for their GP program is the 2027 rule change.

last time Honda cared for WSBK was argubly 2002. Ten Kate flattered them greatly.
Do not underestimate how big of an impact the ..... years had on the japanese .
I'd be shocked if it took more than 2-3 years to come back on top.

propagandhi said:

last time Honda cared for WSBK was argubly 2002. Ten Kate flattered them greatly.
Do not underestimate how big of an impact the ..... years had on the japanese .
I'd be shocked if it took more than 2-3 years to come back on top.

Click to expand...

I hope you're right, but the championship seems to have been scewed towards Ducati for a good number of years.

propagandhi said:

Do not underestimate how big of an impact the ..... years had on the japanese .

Click to expand...

More so than the other factories?

The Japanese have grown accustomed to being in control and running things by consensus. The global financial crisis and Honda's misguided move to 800cc and 21L shook their arrangement to the core. Kawasaki and Suzuki both withdrew for various reasons. Honda (and Yamaha to an extent) are looking into the abyss and asking "is it worth it?".

I can understand their confusion. The internal combustion engine is under regulatory pressure and MotoGP is playing around with......hydraulic ride height and wings? The ROI for those systems will surely put a smile on the shareholders' faces? The situation is not much better in WSBK. The 1000cc Superbikes are on the emissions chopping block, yet the FIM is retaining the 1000cc formula because many manufacturers don't have the cash to launch a new formula. The 1000s will be slowly detuned to meet emissions it seems, which won't help demand. World Supersport is a cool formula, but the FIM set the WSSP performance threshold at a level that disadvantages the 600s because they require more frequent rebuilds and maintenance. So the 600s can't be sold on the road or on the track. The manufacturers must provide some funding and support to keep the private teams engaged in Supersport. Yamaha are preparing the R9 (allegedly). Nothing from Honda.

The FIM and Dorna have assumed an aggressive posture with the Japanese for unknown reasons. Perhaps they are not sufficiently committed to racing or maybe the EU is using MotoGP as a protectionist enterprise. I'm inclined to believe it's the latter because Ducati has gained clout, and their movements are designed to payback their VW overlords in the short-term, rather than build a robust industry. Ducati seem to be relenting, which makes me wonder if a sale of the Bolognese manufacturer is imminent.

Anyway, if you're Honda, how do you fix this? Your allies are mostly gone so you can't really change the rules. The premier classes are dead-end formulas with no ROI. The only good rules at present are in WSSP, which has been a loss-leader category that the Japanese are not setup to monetize. The outgoing 600s and 1000s have a fanatical fanbase. Just thinking about the problem makes my head hurt.

I hope Honda choose to stay in the fight, but it's gonna be a long battle. Personally, I'd wait out MotoGP. Just let this formula die. It seems they've taken the same approach to 1000cc superbike. There will be no RC to send off this formula. They need to fill the void in WSSP. Detuning the 600s and trying to sell them in Europe again isn't going to cut it.

And this new just broke:

Yamaha R1 and R1M To Be Axed

If Honda and Yamaha leave, so does my interest...the Ducati cup is already boring most weekends imo.

Team HRC have won the last 2 Suzuka 8hr which IIRC the brand puts more effort into than their WSBK effort. That they are still putting significant resources into that says to me they are still interested in racing but not any and all racing.
Obviously Honda don't want to be getting smashed until the formula change in 2027 but I have to wonder how much money they see as being justifiable considering there could be monumental changes in the coming years. From my understanding, Aero is extremely expensive to develop and none of these developments help their road bikes at all. Aero could be gone for 2027, meaning all the money poured into aero is wasted because the removal or aero is going to cause a reset for the whole machine and any data they have with aero is going to be next to useless, as is data from 12 year old machines that had no aero.

mylexicon said:

And this new just broke:

Yamaha R1 and R1M To Be Axed

Click to expand...

It could be that Yamaha continues to sell the R1 in markets that don't comply with Euro standards?

mikesbytes said:

It could be that Yamaha continues to sell the R1 in markets that don't comply with Euro standards?

Click to expand...

Probably, but that hinges on California CARB regs going their own direction. If CARB adopts Euro5+ it’s goodbye for the 1000s, imo.

mylexicon said:

Probably, but that hinges on California CARB regs going their own direction. If CARB adopts Euro5+ it’s goodbye for the 1000s, imo.

Click to expand...

There is still all of Asia (4.5b), Africa (1.2b), Oceana (46m), Central and South America + Carribean (668m), also known as most of the world that they may be more interested in.

p4p1 said:

There is still all of Asia (4.5b), Africa (1.2b), Oceana (46m), Central and South America + Carribean (668m), also known as most of the world that they may be more interested in.

Click to expand...

And where in Africa do you want to ride a R1? In the sand of the sahara or on the 5 lane motorways of Kongo?

p4p1 said:

There is still all of Asia (4.5b), Africa (1.2b), Oceana (46m), Central and South America + Carribean (668m), also known as most of the world that they may be more interested in.

Click to expand...

It’s possible, but the R1 is tied to the race track. If the bike is no longer raced in international competition because it has lost road homologation in major markets like Europe or the US (CA mainly), how will it be marketed in the rest of the world? Wouldn’t it be a better use of resources to build a Superbike that is legal in all countries?

Keshav said:

More so than the other factories?

Click to expand...

Compare the lockdowns of italy and Japan.
Japan : standstill
Italy : ministers beg citizens to stop going to the barber.

I strongly believe the lockdowns were a much harsher blow to the asians. Or do you really think the europeans are better at math and computer all of the sudden.

also, the ducati is red. and panigale does not rhyme with wuhan.
Coincidence?
Dalligna did it

ApriliaRS250 said:

And where in Africa do you want to ride a R1? In the sand of the sahara or on the 5 lane motorways of Kongo?

Click to expand...

That is something an American would think

MotoGP is about branding and Honda has a huge sales presence in SE Asia where Honda MotoGP riders are idolised.

propagandhi said:

Compare the lockdowns of italy and Japan.
Japan : standstill
Italy : ministers beg citizens to stop going to the barber.

I strongly believe the lockdowns were a much harsher blow to the asians. Or do you really think the europeans are better at math and computer all of the sudden.

also, the ducati is red. and panigale does not rhyme with wuhan.
Coincidence?
Dalligna did it

Click to expand...

LoL, what a crappy argument.

Mrpurple said:

If Honda and Yamaha leave, so does my interest...the Ducati cup is already boring most weekends imo.

Click to expand...

A la WBSK early 2000's. I love MotoGP but I will find it hard to watch if it becomes 2 or 4 factory Ducati's against a field of customer bikes and a few other manufacturers.

mylexicon said:

Probably, but that hinges on California CARB regs going their own direction. If CARB adopts Euro5+ it’s goodbye for the 1000s, imo.

Click to expand...

So if they are doing away with the R1, what does that mean for their WSBK program? WSBK in general? If Honda and Yamaha no longer make a bike that is eligible, it either becomes a Ducati cup or other manufacturers have to make smaller bikes. Does WSS become the new WSBK?

Mrpurple said:

If Honda and Yamaha leave, so does my interest...the Ducati cup is already boring most weekends imo.

Click to expand...

That would be it for me too !