Just a thread for random thoughts or ideas/topics that probably don't require their own thread.
Jorge Lorenzo - Coincidence or not, it seems the bike he is on/developing becomes the best bike on the grid. Yamaha was equal best or the best bike until his departure in 2016. Ducati had the best bike on the grid during the 17/18 seasons. In 2019 he really didn't get into a groove so I won't hold that against him but now that he is back testing with Yamaha they seem to have pulled ahead of Ducati at this stage. Ducati and Yamaha were IMO neck and neck bike wise last year. Rider inconsistency rather than bike inconsistency was the problem.
KTM - Could be start being able to consistently challenge for wins and podiums. We are only 3 races in but they are showing very positive signs outside of their amazing win this week. Their strategy in the feeder classes looks like it will pay big dividends. However.....
Binder and Oliveira - while both IMO look like they're very talented they are both 25. At that age Lorenzo was on his way to winning his second GP title, Marquez and Rossi were both multiple times world champs, Stoner was a world champ and winning on a bike that no one else could put on the podium and Pedrosa was collecting runners up medals for fun. I don't know if the age aspect is super relevant or not but I would consider that the room for improvement for a 25 year old can't be as good as a guy in his early 20s. The commators were banging on about the maturity Binder showed to keep the bike upright etc and running consistent times while he is out in front but he is 25. He should have that maturity. It doesn't mean it wasn't an outstanding first win and a very impressive ride.
The Championship race
Marquez maybe should still be the favourite. It's a shortened season and he is starting at a 60 point deficit with 10 or 11 races to go but his consistency has been miraculous over the 3 seasons. *Not* that I am betting on this happening but lets say Marquez comes back in the form he left in despite the injury next week and wins. Fabio has another weekend similar to the one he just had Ducati and KTM do well at a circuit they probably should Marquez can easily make up 15 points on Fabio in the one race, if there is a similar repeat the next weekend at Austria that 60 points quickly becomes 30. I doubt that all of those things happen next week let alone. But I'm trying to show how quickly an excellent looking lead can evaporate.
Which brings me to a crash for Quartraro. I don't think its ridiculous to say he likely will crash during a race this year. Everyone probably will. If it's on a weekend that is not going great anyway then he might kind of get away with it however if it is in a situation similar to Vinales at PI last year when trying to beat Marquez it's a disaster. Having said that Marquez needs to keep it upright for the rest of the year as well. Something he has never managed to do.
Yamaha - All riders are reportedly on their last or second last engines. Whether that is a bit of hyperbole and the engines are just being swapped out faster than expected but should operate fine when put back into the bikes I don't know. But this could .... Fabio in the ... if there is real engine problems. If the wick has to be turned down to keep the engines running then it hurts him hugely in Austria and maybe just as much or almost as much in the remaining tracks. I'd mention the other riders but Vinales and Rossi ARE NOT championship threats. Rossi because he isn't fast enough, Maverick because he is just so inconsistent. A start from pitlane, an engine going bang all of which could happen more than once sadly for Fabio could destroy his chance at the 2020 title.
The decline of Dovi - I'm not MotoGP rider so I don't know but Dovi's greatest strength during his championship challenges was slowing the race down and managing tyres. It was never outright speed, which he did occasionally have. My question is if we assume that Michelin tyres have steadily been improving since 2016 has been a factor in Dovi getting further away from Marquez in the championship with each new season since 2017? His wins were always on a track that seemed to strongly favour himself and/or Ducati. When it didn't he was nowhere near the lead. I don't remember a dominant dry victory from Dovi.
Everyone has to fall over almost consistently for Vinales to ever win a title.
Rossi is doing well but he is still the last Yamaha. It's still early days so it could change but Morbidelli is the only Yamaha rider he could beat without catastrophic bike failures or injuries.
Jorge Lorenzo - Coincidence or not, it seems the bike he is on/developing becomes the best bike on the grid. Yamaha was equal best or the best bike until his departure in 2016. Ducati had the best bike on the grid during the 17/18 seasons. In 2019 he really didn't get into a groove so I won't hold that against him but now that he is back testing with Yamaha they seem to have pulled ahead of Ducati at this stage. Ducati and Yamaha were IMO neck and neck bike wise last year. Rider inconsistency rather than bike inconsistency was the problem.
KTM - Could be start being able to consistently challenge for wins and podiums. We are only 3 races in but they are showing very positive signs outside of their amazing win this week. Their strategy in the feeder classes looks like it will pay big dividends. However.....
Binder and Oliveira - while both IMO look like they're very talented they are both 25. At that age Lorenzo was on his way to winning his second GP title, Marquez and Rossi were both multiple times world champs, Stoner was a world champ and winning on a bike that no one else could put on the podium and Pedrosa was collecting runners up medals for fun. I don't know if the age aspect is super relevant or not but I would consider that the room for improvement for a 25 year old can't be as good as a guy in his early 20s. The commators were banging on about the maturity Binder showed to keep the bike upright etc and running consistent times while he is out in front but he is 25. He should have that maturity. It doesn't mean it wasn't an outstanding first win and a very impressive ride.
The Championship race
Marquez maybe should still be the favourite. It's a shortened season and he is starting at a 60 point deficit with 10 or 11 races to go but his consistency has been miraculous over the 3 seasons. *Not* that I am betting on this happening but lets say Marquez comes back in the form he left in despite the injury next week and wins. Fabio has another weekend similar to the one he just had Ducati and KTM do well at a circuit they probably should Marquez can easily make up 15 points on Fabio in the one race, if there is a similar repeat the next weekend at Austria that 60 points quickly becomes 30. I doubt that all of those things happen next week let alone. But I'm trying to show how quickly an excellent looking lead can evaporate.
Which brings me to a crash for Quartraro. I don't think its ridiculous to say he likely will crash during a race this year. Everyone probably will. If it's on a weekend that is not going great anyway then he might kind of get away with it however if it is in a situation similar to Vinales at PI last year when trying to beat Marquez it's a disaster. Having said that Marquez needs to keep it upright for the rest of the year as well. Something he has never managed to do.
Yamaha - All riders are reportedly on their last or second last engines. Whether that is a bit of hyperbole and the engines are just being swapped out faster than expected but should operate fine when put back into the bikes I don't know. But this could .... Fabio in the ... if there is real engine problems. If the wick has to be turned down to keep the engines running then it hurts him hugely in Austria and maybe just as much or almost as much in the remaining tracks. I'd mention the other riders but Vinales and Rossi ARE NOT championship threats. Rossi because he isn't fast enough, Maverick because he is just so inconsistent. A start from pitlane, an engine going bang all of which could happen more than once sadly for Fabio could destroy his chance at the 2020 title.
The decline of Dovi - I'm not MotoGP rider so I don't know but Dovi's greatest strength during his championship challenges was slowing the race down and managing tyres. It was never outright speed, which he did occasionally have. My question is if we assume that Michelin tyres have steadily been improving since 2016 has been a factor in Dovi getting further away from Marquez in the championship with each new season since 2017? His wins were always on a track that seemed to strongly favour himself and/or Ducati. When it didn't he was nowhere near the lead. I don't remember a dominant dry victory from Dovi.
Everyone has to fall over almost consistently for Vinales to ever win a title.
Rossi is doing well but he is still the last Yamaha. It's still early days so it could change but Morbidelli is the only Yamaha rider he could beat without catastrophic bike failures or injuries.
