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1. Stoner - wrist my arse, the guy is quick as he has ever been. I expect him to get pole, holeshot, and then check out. Which means, boring race at the front.

2. Rossi - He will do everything he can to try and stay with Stoner, but he won't be able to match the pace.

3. Lorenzo - Set good times during the practice days and great performance last year. He seems to click well with this track and the race at night didn't phase him.

Things get interesting as to who will take 4th - 10th. A lot has happened since the track practice days in March. Hopefully the cameras will focus on these positions as they are the only place any racing takes place after 2 laps.

Here's how I think it could play out, but obviously we will get a better picture during quali time:

4. Dovi
5. Vermi
6. Hayden
7. Cappers
8. Edwards
9. Pedrosa
10. RdP
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Wander @ Apr 8 2009, 10:42 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>^Why do you think De Puniet would be faster than Elias?
He's got a better incentive package. Also, it's not yet contract time.
 
Stoner (by a mile)
.
.
.
then
Gorgeous Jorge
Rossifumi
Vermin (by a mole)
Loris
Elias
<

Haystack (If he doesn't make top 10, I'll be very worried.)
Edwards (Could finish higher, or might fall off the planet.)
Dovi
Marco
Gibbers (I expect he'll improve as the season progresses.)
Piano boy
Peddles (No practice on a somewhat sucking Honda, and he's got a boo-boo.)
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Geonerd @ Apr 8 2009, 04:56 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Stoner (by a mile)
.
.
.
then
Gorgeous Jorge
Rossifumi
Vermin (by a mole)
Loris
Elias
<

Haystack (If he doesn't make top 10, I'll be very worried.)
Edwards (Could finish higher, or might fall off the planet.)
Dovi
Marco
Gibbers (I expect he'll improve as the season progresses.)
Piano boy
Peddles (No practice on a somewhat sucking Honda, and he's got a boo-boo.)

where is kallio?
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (mattsteg @ Apr 8 2009, 04:45 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>He's got a better incentive package. Also, it's not yet contract time.

Good point.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <div class='quotemain'>where is kallio?

Should definitely be in top 10 I'd say
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Tom @ Apr 8 2009, 05:11 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>where is kallio?
Kalio was 12th at Qatar testing, behind Elias. That's where he is and will be. He's solid, but a rookie. Don't get too amped for the guy. This field the best riders in the world.
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (clarkjw @ Apr 8 2009, 06:27 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Kalio was 12th at Qatar testing, behind Elias. That's where he is and will be. He's solid, but a rookie. Don't get too amped for the guy. This field the best riders in the world.
That was an extreemly definite standpoint considering it's usually the rookies that stir things up the most. I'd say the likelyhood for him to improve in the race is higher than remaining at 12th.
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Babelfish @ Apr 8 2009, 06:14 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>That was an extreemly definite standpoint considering it's usually the rookies that stir things up the most. I'd say the likelyhood for him to improve in the race is higher than remaining at 12th.
I think people get amped for Kalio 'cause he's beat Nicky in testing (but not at Qatar). What they don't seem to realize is that he's not testing new parts and developing the bike. He also didn't have a clutch breakdown at Jerez.
Aside from his small stature, I really like Kallio (and Finns in general). I think he will do well. But look at the field:
Stoner, Rossi, Lorenzo, Capirossi, Hayden, Dovizioso, Vermulen, Edwards, Toesland, Elias, Melandri, Pedrosa. These are the fastest bikers on the planet. The factory veterans have another gear, which rarely shows in testing (except Stoner). I'd be surprised if Kallio can find the last 4/10ths as easily as Elias or Hayden or Gibernau, etc.
 
Beat him testing on his A bike while Hayden was on his B bike...so not really a good comparo.
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Arrabbiata1 @ Apr 8 2009, 03:35 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>To be fair, no one last year would've predicted Dovi and JT in 4th and 6th respectively with Vale sandwiched in between. Someone unexpected could well come to the fore again.
Oh yes, what i wrote i think is the likely result.But in fact,i have a feeling someone is going to make a big mistake in practice or the race.Someone taking someone out in a crash or something.
Or,some rookie finds perfect set up right away and does really well.(Kallio top 6?)
On the other hand,this year alot of topriders are on same bike,same tires and others like Edwards and Lorenzo has seemed to adapt well to their package.
 
I expect a great performance by Lorenzo.
If that will be enough to beat Stoner at Qatar, I don't know--but surely Lorenzo will be close.
Rossi will be happy with a podium there, but maybe Dovi will try to beat him like last year.
And maybe Capirossi can take advantage of a scrap situation and beat both of them for the third place!
Ah...
Let us not forget that the fastest bikes on the straights are the Hondas now...
<
 
Last year Rossi was adapting to Bridgestones and now that is done.Bike and ridingstyle which is ofcourse to benefit for Lorenzo,Toseland and Edwards.Compared to last year i think it's going to be a Yamaha championship in the beginning races just like last year with Stoner in it,but Stoner and Rossi is going to be ahead from the first race.

In other words it could be a real race between Rossi and Stoner from lap one.
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Anders GUZZI @ Apr 8 2009, 10:39 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Last year Rossi was adapting to Bridgestones and now that is done.Bike and ridingstyle which is ofcourse to benefit for Lorenzo,Toseland and Edwards.Compared to last year i think it's going to be a Yamaha championship in the beginning races just like last year with Stoner in it,but Stoner and Rossi is going to be ahead from the first race.

In other words it could be a real race between Rossi and Stoner from lap one.

Don't forget that there is all new tire rules this year. The limited number of tires will probably have more impact than the fact that some of the riders weren't using stones last year. It force a whole new strategy and how riders are conserving tires under practice and spending them fast in qualification makes the result difficult to predict and we should expect some surprices.
I'll bet Stoner is happy though, he hardly put in enough laps to wear out a single set during a whole day.
<
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Tom @ Apr 8 2009, 09:11 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>where is kallio?

Out of the top 10.
<

Among the Duc riders I think Nicky and Gibblets will beat him fairly easily.
Dunnow about Canepa, he's supposed to be decent test rider, but remains an unproven racer.
 
Stoner, Lorenzo, Vermeulin, maybe?

I just hope there are no first corner incidents to take any of the main contenders out, but I think this circuit allows room to "merge" in turn 1 ok.

Stoners strategy will be to get a good lead , then protect his wrist in the second half of the race. I really hope both suzukis are top 5, with a podium for one of them, preferably CV.

As others have said, Rossi is not really expecting to win this one .so a VR victory will have a significant psychological effect on both top riders, CS must win this one to be on track to win back the title.
I think he will do both.


............and I suspect Rossi will be second.
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Bunyip @ Apr 9 2009, 12:37 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Stoner, Lorenzo, Vermeulin, maybe?

I just hope there are no first corner incidents to take any of the main contenders out, but I think this circuit allows room to "merge" in turn 1 ok.

Stoners strategy will be to get a good lead , then protect his wrist in the second half of the race. I really hope both suzukis are top 5, with a podium for one of them, preferably CV.

As others have said, Rossi is not really expecting to win this one .so a VR victory will have a significant psychological effect on both top riders, CS must win this one to be on track to win back the title.
I think he will do both.


............and I suspect Rossi will be second.
Rossi says he is not expecting to win,but i wonder if he is saying what he is thinking,as usual.
 
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Babelfish @ Apr 8 2009, 09:53 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Don't forget that there is all new tire rules this year. The limited number of tires will probably have more impact than the fact that some of the riders weren't using stones last year. It force a whole new strategy and how riders are conserving tires under practice and spending them fast in qualification makes the result difficult to predict and we should expect some surprices.
I'll bet Stoner is happy though, he hardly put in enough laps to wear out a single set during a whole day.
<

It will be fun to see how the tirerule is going to turn out.
I think the new tirerule will ofcourse be a benefit to those in a good team who also were in that team the year before.If they also already were on Bridgestones then,they have even less new things to adapt to.Lorenzo and Edwards are both in great teams on a bike developed for Bridgestones by one of the best developers.So,the only ones being in trouble would be the Honda riders exept for the gresini team and those other riders who switched to bridgestones this year.Just a wild guess.
But it sure can't be easy to be a rookie this year with these new rules.

It might be alot of riders doing unexpected fast laptimes in practice but i think those good teams will have an edge in the last part of the race.OK,this is what i'm guessing.Let's see what happens.
 

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