lorenzo to leave ducati?

JKant · Apr 21, 2017

JPSLotus said:
Pons Suzuki? Pons hasn't fielded a team in GP since 2005 and they never ran Suzuki bikes.

They have an existing relationship with Suzuki, which had signed Vinales to race for them in 2014 i.e. before he moved to Moto2 with Pons. And I wouldn't rule out the Pons connection being a factor in Rins securing his current place in the factory team.

If Suzuki do go ahead and set up a satellite squad, Pons will likely be their first option, assuming they don't want to start from scratch - every other experienced outfit already has a tie up with a different manufacturer; MarcVDS (HRC), Ioda (ART), Ajo (KTM), Gresini (ART), Tech3 (YAM). Leaving.. Forward Racing (which also has a history with Yamaha)? May as well go with Pons.

Chaz Davies is no longer a sure bet to come back to GP anyhow. His return is largely predicated on winning the 2017 WSBK title. A prospect that looked far more possible prior to the season opener.

Maybe if he were looking for a factory ride that title would be a must. But even as the #2 in WSBK, he shouldn't have that much trouble securing a place in a satellite Ducati outfit (currently being ridden by Bautista, Petrucci, Redding, Barbera, Baz & Abraham).

Career killer? Debatable. He's the same age as Rea who's not planning to go anywhere - so Davies' chances of getting that WSBK crown will remain unchanged in 2018. And riding the odd race as a replacement is one thing but MotoGP is still MotoGP and getting there means rubbing shoulders (and limbs) with the best in the business. Bautista & Petrucci potentially have a shot at a podium this season, who's to say Davies wouldn't. Might be preferable to living in Rea's shadow.

JPSLotus · Apr 21, 2017

JKant said:
They have an existing relationship with Suzuki, which had signed Vinales to race for them in 2014 i.e. before he moved to Moto2 with Pons. And I wouldn't rule out the Pons connection being a factor in Rins securing his current place in the factory team.

If Suzuki do go ahead and set up a satellite squad, Pons will likely be their first option, assuming they don't want to start from scratch - every other experienced outfit already has a tie up with a different manufacturer; MarcVDS (HRC), Ioda (ART), Ajo (KTM), Gresini (ART), Tech3 (YAM). Leaving.. Forward Racing (which also has a history with Yamaha)? May as well go with Pons.

Okay, and again the point still remains there is no Pons Suzuki team at this time nor has Pons ever run a Suzuki bike when they did run in the premier class. And Lorenzo is not going to go to a satellite team even if Suzuki set one up.

Maybe if he were looking for a factory ride that title would be a must. But even as the #2 in WSBK, he shouldn't have that much trouble securing a place in a satellite Ducati outfit (currently being ridden by Bautista, Petrucci, Redding, Barbera, Baz & Abraham).

Career killer? Debatable. He's the same age as Rea who's not planning to go anywhere - so Davies' chances of getting that WSBK crown will remain unchanged in 2018. And riding the odd race as a replacement is one thing but MotoGP is still MotoGP and getting there means rubbing shoulders (and limbs) with the best in the business. Bautista & Petrucci potentially have a shot at a podium this season, who's to say Davies wouldn't. Might be preferable to living in Rea's shadow.

His chances remain unchanged?

Based on what?

If Ducati builds a Panigale for 2018 that is equal to, or exceeds the ZX-10R, it would mean the chances have changed.

Riding the odd race as a replacement still will give you insight into whether a rider has the skill set to be a serious contender out there. His 3 race stint was unremarkable and did not lead to any opportunities for 2008 or beyond.

JKant · Apr 21, 2017

JPSLotus said:
Okay, and again the point still remains there is no Pons Suzuki team at this time nor has Pons ever run a Suzuki bike when they did run in the premier class.

And Suzuki have never run a satellite outfit in the modern era. They're considering it now. Times change.

And Lorenzo is not going to go to a satellite team even if Suzuki set one up.

He's quite likely to finish this season behind a satellite Honda (LCR) and I wouldn't be entirely surprised if he finishes behind a satellite Ducati (Pramac/Aspar).

Unlikely as the prospect of his moving is, a factory supported satellite bike may well be the best option for Lorenzo. There's nothing fundamentally infra dig about riding a satellite. Rossi took his first premier class title on a 'satellite' bike while the 'factory' Suzuki & Aprilia have never won a title in this era.

His chances remain unchanged?

Based on what?

Based on the fact that the odds of Ducati coming up with a bike to ..... Rea's ZX-10R remain unchanged from the last two seasons.

Riding the odd race as a replacement still will give you insight into whether a rider has the skill set to be a serious contender out there. His 3 race stint was unremarkable and did not lead to any opportunities for 2008 or beyond.

Can you judge the sum total of a 20 year old rider's potential based on three races? Could Lorenzo's potential on the Ducati be rightly judged to no better than Rabat on the Honda given their performances so far?

While he's no overlooked alien, Davies of 2007 is still not the Davies of 2017.

JPSLotus · Apr 21, 2017

JKant said:
And Suzuki have never run a satellite outfit in the modern era. They're considering it now. Times change.

He's quite likely to finish this season behind a satellite Honda (LCR) and I wouldn't be entirely surprised if he finishes behind a satellite Ducati (Pramac/Aspar).

Unlikely as the prospect of his moving is, a factory supported satellite bike may well be the best option for Lorenzo. There's nothing fundamentally infra dig about riding a satellite. Rossi took his first premier class title on a 'satellite' bike while the 'factory' Suzuki & Aprilia have never won a title in this era.

Again Kant, you are talking about a non-existent team that for the purposes of the current discussion doesn't actually matter. Rather than admit you were not correct, you try talking around it as seems to be your usual MO.

It was already explained to you previously, but you seem to be in need of a reminder that Rossi's satellite bike was a works effort dressed up as a satellite team.

Based on the fact that the odds of Ducati coming up with a bike to ..... Rea's ZX-10R remain unchanged from the last two seasons.

What odds are those Kant?

Please tell us what the formula is that you used to determine the odds of Ducati fielding a bike in 2018 that can challenge Rea/ZX-10R for the WSBK title are going to be unchanged?

Can you judge the sum total of a 20 year old rider's potential based on three races? Could Lorenzo's potential on the Ducati be rightly judged to no better than Rabat on the Honda given their performances so far?

While he's no overlooked alien, Davies of 2007 is still not the Davies of 2017.

In his first 3 races of 2006, the then 20 year old Casey Stoner took pole position in his 2nd race at Losail, and stood on the podium with a 2nd place in his third race at Istanbul. All on the satellite LCR that was not on the preferred tire recipient list. So to answer your question, yes you can judge potential based on three races.

JKant · Apr 21, 2017

JPSLotus said:
Again Kant, you are talking about a non-existent team that for the purposes of the current discussion doesn't actually matter. Rather than admit you were not correct, you try talking around it as seems to be your usual MO.

The 'current discussion' was based on a hypothetical. Kindly refer to Gaz's post that I quoted. If you think that 'it doesn't actually matter', so be it, no one's forcing you to participate.

It was already explained to you previously, but you seem to be in need of a reminder that Rossi's satellite bike was a works effort dressed up as a satellite team.

Right.... and where exactly does it say that a Suzuki project must be an 'authentic' satellite? For that matter, what did you think the apostrophes on the 'factory' & 'satellite' in my post implied?

Factory teams are limited to fielding no more than two riders under FIM regulations. There is no bar on what bike spec can be leased or what level of support a factory may provide to a satellite team.

What odds are those Kant?

Please tell us what the formula is that you used to determine the odds of Ducati fielding a bike in 2018 that can challenge Rea/ZX-10R for the WSBK title are going to be unchanged?

Odds of Ducati delivering a technical solution to the challenge from Rea in 2018 remain broadly the same as they were in 2017 and 2016. The exact value of those odds are a matter for the bookies.

In his first 3 races of 2006, the then 20 year old Casey Stoner took pole position in his 2nd race at Losail, and stood on the podium with a 2nd place in his third race at Istanbul. All on the satellite LCR that was not on the preferred tire recipient list. So to answer your question, yes you can judge potential based on three races.

In contrast, Bautista, Crutchlow, Miller had generally unspectacular debuts in the class. Rossi crashed out of his first two races and finished a lowly 11th in the third one. Doesn't make any of them unworthy of riding a satellite Ducati, after gaining a decade's worth of experience.

JPSLotus · Apr 21, 2017

JKant said:
The 'current discussion' was based on a hypothetical. Kindly refer to Gaz's post that I quoted. If you think that 'it doesn't actually matter', so be it, no one's forcing you to participate.

Right. We were talking about hypotheticals based on what exists currently rather than non-existent teams...in particular teams run by an outfit that last ran a pair of bikes in the 990cc era.

Right.... and where exactly does it say that a Suzuki project must be an 'authentic' satellite? For that matter, what did you think the apostrophes on the 'factory' & 'satellite' in my post implied?

Factory teams are limited to fielding no more than two riders under FIM regulations. There is no bar on what bike spec can be leased or what level of support a factory may provide to a satellite team.

So Suzuki is going to take a rider of Lorenzo's caliber and throw him on a non-works bike? A rider of Lorenzo brings an incredible amount of PR benefits, and you think they would throw him into some satellite team? Nastro Azzurro was under far different circumstances.

Odds of Ducati delivering a technical solution to the challenge from Rea in 2018 remain broadly the same as they were in 2017 and 2016. The exact value of those odds are a matter for the bookies.

Broadly the same? Based on what Kant? Suddenly the odds are a matter for the bookies? Why? You stated outright that:

Based on the fact that the odds of Ducati coming up with a bike to ..... Rea's ZX-10R remain unchanged from the last two seasons.

The odds according to you are unchanged from the last two seasons. But you can't provide any real proof on what these odds are, instead opting to tell us it's a matter for the bookies.

In contrast, Bautista, Crutchlow, Miller had generally unspectacular debuts in the class. Rossi crashed out of his first two races and finished a lowly 11th in the third one. Doesn't make any of them unworthy of riding a satellite Ducati, after gaining a decade's worth of experience.

Again, you asked:

Can you judge the sum total of a 20 year old rider's potential based on three races?

I gave you definitive proof that you could in fact judge the sum total of a 20 year old rider's potential based on three races.

Your post in a nutshell:

Gaz · Apr 21, 2017

JKant said:
Lorenzo -> Pons Suzuki
Bautista -> Ducati
Chaz Davies -> Aspar
Morbidelli -> MarcVDS

Tito Rabat is almost sure to lose his seat. Big question over Loris Baz's future.

You forgot the all important.

Gaz said:
Just to help the old rumour mill

JKant said:
Iannone has a two year deal. He's not going anywhere before 2019. Suzuki might be persuaded to buy off Lorenzo's Ducati contract, with a modest paycut if necessary (they reportedly offered Vinales a huge raise to stay on).

Riders have left teams prematurely previously so I anonne could well leave if he

a. had to (pushed)
b. simply does not come to terms with the bike and a better opportunity opens up for Suzuki (another rider becomes available to Suzuki).

For me, Rins is a better prospect to keep. First year in the top class, riding hurt but is a rider you can teach. He is an investment for the future.

Ianonne is about now. Has experience (multiple years) on another manufacturer and should be a team leader.

But, whilst the discussion is so focused on Lorenzo, Ianonne also is yet to produce ...... yes he has had one or two good practice sessions, but a number of good practice sessions will not win you a championship.

As much as JL needs to step up, so does AI

JKant · Apr 21, 2017

JPSLotus said:
Right. We were talking about hypotheticals based on what exists currently rather than non-existent teams...in particular teams run by an outfit that last ran a pair of bikes in the 990cc era.

Don't leave it up in the air. Which outfit, in your opinion, is better suited to running a satellite Suzuki than Pons while still being available?

So Suzuki is going to take a rider of Lorenzo's caliber and throw him on a non-works bike? A rider of Lorenzo brings an incredible amount of PR benefits, and you think they would throw him into some satellite team? Nastro Azzurro was under far different circumstances.

Again, where does it say that it must be a 'non-works bike'? What stops Suzuki from running a Nastro Azzurro type outfit? How are the circumstances different? Elaborate please.

Broadly the same? Based on what Kant? Suddenly the odds are a matter for the bookies? Why? You stated outright that:

The odds according to you are unchanged from the last two seasons. But you can't provide any real proof on what these odds are, instead opting to tell us it's a matter for the bookies.

It doesn't matter what the odds are. It matters if they're improving. Davies' chances of taking a title however remain the same. If anything, they've reduced with Melandri now in the mix and the steadily improving Yamaha.

Again, you asked:

I gave you definitive proof that you could in fact judge the sum total of a 20 year old rider's potential based on three races.

All right. I'll rephrase - do you think rider can be/ought to be written off based on the results of three races from a decade ago?

JKant · Apr 21, 2017

Sito Pons considering expanding to MotoGP in 2017 - Sept 2015

With 2016 seeing MotoGP enter a new era of standardised electronics, Michelin tyres and reduced running costs, many privateer teams are looking at the possibility of getting involved in MotoGP, with Sito Pons’ name the latest to be added to an ever growing list.

With a reduction in costs, Sito Pons is exploring the option of expanding his Grand Prix team into a dual-tier effort, moving on from just his current Páginas Amarillas HP 40 Moto2 team. With a successful Moto2 team, and a strong relationship with MotoGP’s latest hot commodity Alex Rins, Sito Pons and his ambition to move into MotoGP could appeal to a factory or two.

Pons compared the regulations from 2017 to those that have been implemented in the junior class of Grand Prix racing, since Dorna and the organisers decided to replace the 125cc category with 4-stroke 250’s in the Moto3 class.

“The regulation from 2017 are similar to Moto3, it gives non-factory teams the possibility to compete, and work towards good results,” said Pons during a promotional event held in Madrid with Stihl, brand of chain saws and garden machinery that sponsors his Moto2 team.

“This is when a team like ours can consider the possibility of a financially feasible project, as well as a successful project on a results and sporting level. Our goal is always to get good results and fight to be a challenger. Having good results is what motivates any team.”

Sito Pons favourite for final MotoGP grid place - March 2016

Sito Pons has emerged as favourite for the final MotoGP grid place available for 2017.

KTM's arrival in the premier-class will raise the present grid to 23 entries, one short of the target figure.

As such IRTA, FIM and Dorna recently invited applications for the 24th place. The initial submission deadline is Friday 29th April.

But according to Speedweek.com it will go to Pons.

The Spaniard currently runs the title-winning Paginas Amarillas HP 40 Moto2 team, but prior to 2006 he had a multi race-winning Honda 500cc/MotoGP project featuring the likes of Alex Barros, Loris Capirossi, Makoto Tamada and Max Biaggi.

Pons' potential choice of 2017 machinery is unclear, but next year's rules state that each manufacturer is obliged to supply two satellite machines if requested. Honda, Yamaha and Ducati already fulfil such criteria, but Suzuki and Aprilia currently have no satellite entries.

24th Grid Slot for 2017 Withdrawn Due to Lack of Manufacturer Support

There will be only 23 bikes on the MotoGP grid in 2017. The FIM today officially announced that the 24th grid slot has been officially withdrawn, after manufacturers could not pledge to supply additional equipment.

There was plenty of interest in the grid slot. Five teams expressed an interest, and three teams submitted an official application for the 24th grid slot. Those teams are believed to have included Pons, LCR, and Ajo, all of whom had previously admitted publicly that they were keen to move up to MotoGP.

One of the main requirements put forward by the Selection Committee (comprising representatives of IRTA, Dorna and the FIM) was having a sound financial basis. Though Dorna will be offering €2.4 million in support for each grid slot, actually fielding a rider in MotoGP would cost at a very minimum €4 million a year, and most likely more.

It was not the financial situation of the teams that was the problem, however. In the end, the decision to withdraw the 24th grid slot came down to a lack of competitive machinery. The manufacturers were not willing to supply extra bikes to a team to fill that slot.

For Ducati, Honda and Yamaha, that is entirely understandable. Ducati have eight bikes on the grid, a veritable cornucopia of clearly competitive machinery. Yamaha are supplying four bikes, as they have done almost since the dawn of the four-stroke era. Honda are supplying five bikes, and though they could have added a sixth, the price cap to be introduced would have had an impact on that decision. Prices are capped at €2.2 million, but HRC are believed to be charging over €3.5 million for the RC213V, so a sixth Honda would have been a costly exercise for HRC.

That would leave Suzuki, KTM and Aprilia. 2017 will be KTM's first year in MotoGP, and will have their hands full developing the bike. A KTM would be a massive gamble for a satellite squad. Aprilia's RS-GP is clearly a much better package in 2016 than it was in 2015, but it is still some way off the pace. Here too, satellite squads would be wary of gambling on the bike.

Suzuki's GSX-RR is a much more attractive prospect, but Suzuki have long been wary of supplying satellite teams. When asked about it in Austin, Suzuki team boss Davide Brivio told MotoMatters.com "we have no experience with satellite teams", expressing fears they would not be able to support a satellite team properly.

This goes against an agreement made between the factories and Dorna in 2015, however. In exchange for the change in financing, the factories committed to supplying bikes to satellite teams with bikes. Though it is unknown at this time whether any satellite team actually requested a bike from Suzuki, the rumors that Johann Zarco has been signed by Suzuki for 2017 suggest that they had. What impact that will have on Zarco's future remains to be seen.

Though the 24th slot has been withdrawn for 2017, this does not mean that the grid will not expand in the future. The FIM press release states that the grid slot could be offered again in the future, when factories may be more willing to supply competitive bikes.

Ajo has a relationship with KTM which is still about two seasons away from fielding a competitive factory bike (to say nothing of a satellite). LCR is already contracted to Honda which provides it with good factory support; its unlikely to jump ship. Who's left?

JKant · Apr 21, 2017

Gaz said:
You forgot the all important.

Consider me a fresh hire at the rumor mill. All ready to join the union and start the churning.

Riders have left teams prematurely previously so I anonne could well leave if he

a. had to (pushed)
b. simply does not come to terms with the bike and a better opportunity opens up for Suzuki (another rider becomes available to Suzuki).

I can see Suzuki wanting to ditch Iannone if he continues to be erratic. I can't see Iannone being willing to renegotiate his contract and give up a factory Suzuki to move to Avintia or MarcVDS. A return to Ducati would be a possibility but given that they didn't part on the best of terms, that might be an awkward situation.

Gaz · Apr 21, 2017

JKant said:
I can see Suzuki wanting to ditch Iannone if he continues to be erratic. I can't see Iannone being willing to renegotiate his contract and give up a factory Suzuki to move to Avintia or MarcVDS. A return to Ducati would be a possibility but given that they didn't part on the best of terms, that might be an awkward situation.

My honest opinion, if it were to happen is B followed by an A

Suzuki see a rider come onto the market and things happen from there.

Again, all rumour and innuendo.

As for your thoughts about Pons, I take a little of JPS side here as for me, a rider such as JL (to continue the rumour mongering) would only go to a dedicated and publically named as the official Factory team with the exception of a rider setting up his own team with full factory support.

Ergo, Pons would need to become the full and official factory team (which could well happen if he brings enough money to subsidise the Suzuki Factory investment)

JPSLotus · Apr 21, 2017

JKant said:
Don't leave it up in the air. Which outfit, in your opinion, is better suited to running a satellite Suzuki than Pons while still being available?

Again that was not what the discussion was about.

Again, where does it say that it must be a 'non-works bike'? What stops Suzuki from running a Nastro Azzurro type outfit? How are the circumstances different? Elaborate please.

And yet again, you still don't understand what Lorenzo means in terms of exposure. Look up about Nastro Azzurro and consider other factors pertinent to the time.

It doesn't matter what the odds are. It matters if they're improving. Davies' chances of taking a title however remain the same. If anything, they've reduced with Melandri now in the mix and the steadily improving Yamaha.

You said the odds did matter by bringing up the entire subject of odds and that they were bad for Davies/Ducati's chances of overhauling the ZX-10R/Rea. Don't try and back out of that by citing some other reason. In addition there is no guarantee Melandri will be there in 2018.

All right. I'll rephrase - do you think rider can be/ought to be written off based on the results of three races from a decade ago?

Of course they can be. You must not watch a lot of motorsports then as riders/drivers are written off for sometimes only 1 race.

JKant · Apr 21, 2017

Gaz said:
My honest opinion, if it were to happen is B followed by an A

Suzuki see a rider come onto the market and things happen from there.

Again, all rumour and innuendo.

As for your thoughts about Pons, I take a little of JPS side here as for me, a rider such as JL (to continue the rumour mongering) would only go to a dedicated and publically named as the official Factory team with the exception of a rider setting up his own team with full factory support.

Ergo, Pons would need to become the full and official factory team (which could well happen if he brings enough money to subsidise the Suzuki Factory investment)

I see it differently.

- Lorenzo wants another title or at the very least be a regular contender for the podium.
- Suzuki want a title or at the very least to be a regular contender for the podium.
- Ducati want another title failing which they'd want to save a massive pile of money and invest it in R&D instead.
- Dorna (and most fans, I hope) want to see as competitive a field as possible with the potential to yield lots of hard fights.

We're still early in the season and perhaps things will change in a few months. Maybe Lorenzo will sketch a remarkable turnaround on the GP17 or maybe Iannone will completely change his mentality. Not impossible.. stranger things have happened.

Still, as things stand, Lorenzo needs a Suzuki and Suzuki needs a Lorenzo. But both its existing riders have a two year contract. If not for the new regulations, the simplest thing would have been to run a three bike garage. Honda ran a superteam in 2011 and Nakamoto had an uberteam planned for 2012 (Stoner-Marquez-Pedrosa).

But since that's not an option, running a factory bike under a satellite marque would be a perfectly legitimate & legal way of skirting the rules. Buy out Gabbarini's contract as well, if necessary leaving the administrative aspects of a new team to Sito Pons' considerable experience. The next season Lorenzo could formally come over to the factory team.

Not something that's likely to occur organically but its also not something that Ezpeleta or Brivio couldn't broker as long as Lorenzo could be pursuaded to consider his position dispassionately, unclouded by ego.

On a personal note, as a spectator, I don't want to see Suzuki or Ducati abandon their unique characteristics to pursue the Yamaha 'mean', especially if they're already fiedling competitive bikes that just need a rider that's the right 'fit'. For that matter, it'll be a pity if Lorenzo has to abandon his graceful riding style because he's getting punished for it by the bike. And my fear is that the longer the situation persists the more they'll drift towards the mean.

Worse still is the prospect of someone of Lorenzo's calibre with his record of achievements, being resigned to mid-field status. So maybe there's a bit of wishful thinking involved here, but in a discussion about hypotheticals that should be kosher, no?

JKant · Apr 21, 2017

JPSLotus said:
Again that was not what the discussion was about.

And yet again, you still don't understand what Lorenzo means in terms of exposure. Look up about Nastro Azzurro and consider other factors pertinent to the time.

Could you please elaborate. Why is a Nastro Azzurro style setup on a Suzuki out of the question?

Sure Lorenzo'd lose the 'status' of a factory rider but that's a double edged sword if you're not as competitive as expected on a factory ride. Pedrosa wouldn't have copped half the flak he did/does, if he weren't riding a Repsol RCV. Better to fight for the podium on a 'satellite' bike than be an also-ran on a 'factory' bike.

On a more egoistic note - when Lorenzo signed his contract he was the reigning champion on a hot streak having won the opening round at Qatar after dominating winter testing. He will have a fraction of that leverage when he starts negotiating to renew his contract with Ducati or look at other options for 2019. Right now memories of his 2015 season haven't faded and he can be fairly sure of a place in the factory Suzuki team if his first season goes off well (and there's no reason it shouldn't) without having to contest with someone younger (like Zarco) for it.

You said the odds did matter by bringing up the entire subject of odds and that they were bad for Davies/Ducati's chances of overhauling the ZX-10R/Rea. Don't try and back out of that by citing some other reason. In addition there is no guarantee Melandri will be there in 2018.

I said the odds of Ducati delivering a super-Panigale to finally beat Rea remain unchanged. They could deliver a better bike the next season but they could also deliver a worse bike. Except that this time round, Davies also has to contend with Melandri. To quote your post -

"I see Melandri getting stronger as the season goes on which is only going to add to Davies' challenge of having to bring the fight to a stronger Rea/Kawasaki combo while having to contend with a far stronger teammate."

Also, I don't see why Melandri would be going anywhere in 2018. Unlike Davies, he's already done the MotoGP thing and leaving WSBK for BSB or AMA would be a self-imposed demotion.

As far as Davies is concerned, WSBK has merely a tenth of the viewership that MotoGP commands. And MotoGP is still where you find best riders and the best bikes. Maybe someone else would have preferred being a bigger fish in a smaller pond but Davies wants to have a go at the elite class and has the kind of CV that would secure him a satellite ride.

Of course they can be. You must not watch a lot of motorsports then as riders/drivers are written off for sometimes only 1 race.

So Davies ought to be written off as a potential MotoGP rider because he had a couple of forgettable races 10 years ago. Well.. that's your opinion, which you're welcome to. I disagree.

Gaz · Apr 21, 2017

JKant said:
I see it differently.

- Lorenzo wants another title or at the very least be a regular contender for the podium.
- Suzuki want a title or at the very least to be a regular contender for the podium.
- Ducati want another title failing which they'd want to save a massive pile of money and invest it in R&D instead.
- Dorna (and most fans, I hope) want to see as competitive a field as possible with the potential to yield lots of hard fights.

No offence but 'no .... sherlock' !

If any of the above did not want that which you have listed, best they pack up and leave the sport to those that do want it ..........

JKant said:
We're still early in the season and perhaps things will change in a few months. Maybe Lorenzo will sketch a remarkable turnaround on the GP17 or maybe Iannone will completely change his mentality. Not impossible.. stranger things have happened.

As I stated in the first post ...... this is all rumour and playing for me so no genuine predictions etc but .........

I have money on Lorenzo and personally he does not strike me as a quitter so I fully expect him to turn it around.

Ianonne on the other hand for me is different, he is only as good as the top 4 - 5 riders in his head. Persoanlly I am not sure that Ianonne can change the mentality or approach as it is these very aspects that have gotten him here, so to change may well result in negative change due to loss of focus and what not (of course, the opposite is also true but he has been what 4 or 5 years now?)

JKant said:
Still, as things stand, Lorenzo needs a Suzuki and Suzuki needs a Lorenzo. But both its existing riders have a two year contract. If not for the new regulations, the simplest thing would have been to run a three bike garage. Honda ran a superteam in 2011 and Nakamoto had an uberteam planned for 2012 (Stoner-Marquez-Pedrosa).

First off, contracts mean nothing as arrangements can be made and money can be paid to make any issues go away.

What JL needs (IMO) is confidence.

Once he gets confidence in himself on the machine, watch out. He may not be a world beater every week but to me he is a confidence rider and that is the critical aspect, plus he is likely still struggling with the Michelin as he didn't really get confident last year as each good result was interspersed with ordinary qualifying and performances. He just didn't get onto that confident roll that so many sportsmen need that gets them into the 'invincible' mindset from which so many good results flow.

Give him time ............ I am

JKant said:
Not something that's likely to occur organically but its also not something that Ezpeleta or Brivio couldn't broker as long as Lorenzo could be pursuaded to consider his position dispassionately, unclouded by ego.

We are all to aware of what Ezpeleta can broker ............... competitive bike wise.

But then, JL does not have the appeal of some others either .....

JKant said:
On a personal note, as a spectator, I don't want to see Suzuki or Ducati abandon their unique characteristics to pursue the Yamaha 'mean', especially if they're already fiedling competitive bikes that just need a rider that's the right 'fit'. For that matter, it'll be a pity if Lorenzo has to abandon his graceful riding style because he's getting punished for it by the bike. And my fear is that the longer the situation persists the more they'll drift towards the mean.

Worse still is the prospect of someone of Lorenzo's calibre with his record of achievements, being resigned to mid-field status. So maybe there's a bit of wishful thinking involved here, but in a discussion about hypotheticals that should be kosher, no?

For mine, if they want to be serious contenders they need to do whatever it takes, or alternately DORNA need to wake up and accept that competition is good and thus allow free thinking competition ......... tyres would be a good start (that old chestnut again), or open electronics and increase fuel allowances etc.

The question is would they drift to the mean through necessity under the rules (I feel yes) and so with DORNA prone to rule changes as often as the toilet flushes, they (DORNA) run a serious risk of increasing costs exponentially outside the realms of some factories ........... and yes, I feel they know full well what they are doing.

AJV80 · Apr 21, 2017

Gaz said:
I have money on Lorenzo and personally he does not strike me as a quitter so I fully expect him to turn it around.

Agree, Lorenzo has competed in only two races on a bike very foregin and different to the Yamaha he has spent most of his career riding, the Ducati is also a bike many others have struggled to master.

Moving to Ducati was never going to be easy for him or anybody for that matter, its pretty ridiculous that people are rubbishing him so early in the season ... give the guy a chance, it may take him all season to get comfortable with the bike and IMO 'so what if it does'.

I'm not a huge Ducati fan but would love nothing more than to see him make everybody eat their words (and their clickbait fantasy stories).

JKant · Apr 22, 2017

Gaz said:
What JL needs (IMO) is confidence.

Once he gets confidence in himself on the machine, watch out. He may not be a world beater every week but to me he is a confidence rider and that is the critical aspect, plus he is likely still struggling with the Michelin as he didn't really get confident last year as each good result was interspersed with ordinary qualifying and performances. He just didn't get onto that confident roll that so many sportsmen need that gets them into the 'invincible' mindset from which so many good results flow.

Give him time ............ I am

His performance so far is certainly not a true reflection of his potential on the GP17. But still.. what is the endgame i.e. after he's well settled and comfortable on the bike?

Dall'igna signed him because he believed Lorenzo could bring home the rider championship for Ducati again. Is that still likely to be a target? Is it an achievable one?

The question is would they drift to the mean through necessity under the rules (I feel yes) and so with DORNA prone to rule changes as often as the toilet flushes, they (DORNA) run a serious risk of increasing costs exponentially outside the realms of some factories ........... and yes, I feel they know full well what they are doing.

Is this about the new fairings brought about by the winglet ban? Because that's exactly the kind of development rewards ingenuity over wealth (unlike electronics/software) while increasing diversity on the grid. The rewards can be substantial while working with it is not particularly expensive - the software employed is standard stuff CATIA/Solidworks-Ansys (I did my Thermo/FluidMech project work with Ansys) and kind of wind tunnels required for testing are relatively simple.

libby · Apr 22, 2017

6th on the grid.Blimey,that's better well done Jorge !

Gaz · Apr 22, 2017

libby said:
6th on the grid.Blimey,that's better well done Jorge !

Not at all bad for mentally shot quitter who can't ride anything but the Yamaha.

Maybe that seat position thing he spoke of at Argentina was not the BS that some claimed it to be

That said, no points for qualification but from a confidence view, am sure feels better which can only mean good.

Gaz · Apr 22, 2017

JKant said:
Is this about the new fairings brought about by the winglet ban? Because that's exactly the kind of development rewards ingenuity over wealth (unlike electronics/software) while increasing diversity on the grid. The rewards can be substantial while working with it is not particularly expensive - the software employed is standard stuff CATIA/Solidworks-Ansys (I did my Thermo/FluidMech project work with Ansys) and kind of wind tunnels required for testing are relatively simple.

Except, every time Ducati have developed or teamed with someone to develop a product that seems to advantage their bikes and where the others cannot replicate it .......... rules change so no, I do not mean the fairing as that would be relatively cheap to manufacture.

What I do mean is removal of tyre supplier made them have to change the design to suit spec tyres (as they became), wing removal means a redesign of not just fairing but other components to try to achieve wing like results with non wings or any manner of Ducati innovations that have been affected by rule changes over te years.

In the end, the sport risks effective spec engineering if one is not rewarded for innovation but instead punished

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