I think Lorenzo has been very surprising to be so good so soon, he can challenge for the podium consistently and be very fast at some rounds, maybe win a couple of races as the season goes on. But I don't think he is a top challenge contender just yet, he's been in a great position to win a couple of races but not quite been able to do it. Next year I think he can be a strong contender with the experience of a full season and development behind him. He is definitely the #1 Yamaha rider and the team should focus its development & future on him, not on Rossi who's era has ended.
I think it will be alll about Pedrosa v Stoner as the season races on to its ultimate conclusion, with Pedrosa taking the title.
Having said that its a great season with many competitive riders and bikes, there is the chance of a different podium each round?!