In regards to Spies, he has certainly shown his ability to quickly adapt, I expect him to do the same throughout the season at the various circuits. I think a top 5 overall in his first year would be outstanding.
I would have picked Haga as a definite shoe-in for the championship if he was still on the Yamaha. As it stands right now the Ducati/Haga mix is still a bit unproven in my eyes to make a for sure call on him winning the overall. That said he is still my pick for overall as he is one of my favorite riders.
It's things like this that make WSBK so exciting this year. So much new blood that are showing impressive speed (Byrne, Spies, Sykes, Rea), race proven winners coming back on their same rides (Neukirchner, Checa, Kiyo, Fabrizio), along with all the vets on new rides (Biaggi, Nakano, Haga, Corser, Xaus). I seriously can't wait for PI to get here any sooner.