2010 second part: the "Mundialito"

J4rn0 said:

What is pushing Valentino out of Yamaha is the fact that his teammate will be the world champ -- that is indisputable, and Rossi's plan was just the opposite: he wanted to be the world champion again, beating Lorenzo like last year, and push him out of Yamaha. It didn't work out, the challenge ended prematurely because of the injury, and that has precipitated the change. It wasn't at all unthinkable that Lorenzo -- or Stoner -- could win the title this year, even without Rossi's injurie(s): but the injury removed any doubts as to who would win in the end (a little too early, unfortunately). Things could have turned out different, however injuries are a well known, and accepted, part of this game.

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This situation was pretty well inevitable ( except for the rossi leaving part, it obviously could have been lorenzo leaving) once yamaha hired jorge. I can't recall any situation in premier class gp racing or in F1 where having dual number 1 riders/drivers hasn't caused problems, sometimes even costing championships as has recently happened in F1 and may be happening again this year.



Yamaha were in a very hard place; as you say they couldn't really sack the overwhelmingly likely 2010 world champion, particularly before he has clinched the title, and rossi's crash meant any decision had to be made early.



If they hired jorge initially because they thought valentino was no longer at his peak after 2006 and 2007 it was an error of judgement, if because they thought his retirement was imminent less so.



Could this backfire for yamaha? Absolutely . The speed of rossi's comeback has been remarkable, and he looks if anything even more motivated than after losing to stoner in 2007. As I have said previously, alex criville looked nearly as good as jorge at this stage in 1999, only to be nowhere a year later when he had developed the doohan +/- jb honda into a pig. There are also risks for valentino; whilst nothing can touch his iconic status overall, and this will be increased if that is possible by winning for ducati, he risks being estranged in his retirement from the teams for whom he had his success if the ducati dog does not hunt, although eddie lawson going by laguna seca 2010 does look to be a fully rehabilitated yamaha icon

michaelm said:

This situation was pretty well inevitable ( except for the rossi leaving part, it obviously could have been lorenzo leaving) once yamaha hired jorge. I can't recall any situation in premier class gp racing or in F1 where having dual number 1 riders/drivers hasn't caused problems, sometimes even costing championships as has recently happened in F1 and may be happening again this year.



Yamaha were in a very hard place; as you say they couldn't really sack the overwhelmingly likely 2010 world champion, particularly before he has clinched the title, and rossi's crash meant any decision had to be made early.



If they hired jorge initially because they thought valentino was no longer at his peak after 2006 and 2007 it was an error of judgement, if because they thought his retirement was imminent less so.



Could this backfire for yamaha? Absolutely . The speed of rossi's comeback has been remarkable, and he looks if anything even more motivated than after losing to stoner in 2007. As I have said previously, alex criville looked nearly as good as jorge at this stage in 1999, only to be nowhere a year later when he had developed the doohan +/- jb honda into a pig. There are also risks for valentino; whilst nothing can touch his iconic status overall, and this will be increased if that is possible by winning for ducati, he risks being estranged in his retirement from the teams for whom he had his success if the ducati dog does not hunt, although eddie lawson going by laguna seca 2010 does look to be a fully rehabilitated yamaha icon

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Even since Yamaha re-directed VR's wage funds from developing the Bike to Jorge, then for me its been obvious that they didn't want Rossi anymore, I'm sure they knew he might jump ship anyway so decided to give him a push. The loss of Fiat as well certainly denotes the lack of faith they have in Yamaha's Bankability without VR or with the rumored decreased support they're opting for with VR/Ducati- the potential lack of Bang for their buck in Motogp full stop.



Personally I think Yamaha will be in trouble next year even if Jorge gets the title this year, and more so when the rules change, they'll have to contend with Honda, who'll be stronger than they've been for quite a while, and Ducati who'll no doubt put everything into making sure their bike isn't the one Rossi/Burgess can't win on. If anything the (excluding Suzuki) Potential Factory Yamaha team for next year will be weakest of the factory squads, Jorge and Ben-the least experienced and successful (in Motogp) against Stoner and Pedrosa on one side and Rossi with Hayden plus Burgess to turn the spanners on the other......Yamaha is placing most of their Faith in a lot of big unknowns-its not hard to imagine that they could go from top to bottom in less than 12 months and finish third behind Ducati and Honda next year, certainly based on Honda's similar history in 2000 with the loss of their multiple world champ and Burgess mentioned above.



And the ever increasing likelihood of having no Suzuki to beat in the future, Yamaha's Satellite efforts will be under increased pressure to not finish last.......

J4rn0 said:

I have a feeling that at Yamaha they began thinking seriously at life without Rossi quite some time ago, especially when they saw that with Lorenzo they could win even without #46. With the hard financial times, the reasoning might have been -- the bike is perfect, Lorenzo can win on it, let's push Valentino a bit, so that he moves somewhere else on a presumably lesser bike and we can win the title with a halved budget. :fox2:



Lorenzo, after winning this year, may be well positioned to repeat the win in 2011, given his class and new-found consistency and the fact that Rossi will have a lot of work to do on the Ducati, and presumably Stoner on the Honda as well. The qualities of the M1 will not disappear overnight (development is more scientific now than in 1999, thanks to the electronics, and Forcada is a first-class technician). 2012, with all the changes, could be more difficult for Lorenzo, who has never ridden a 1000cc. But there too, electronics may help? Who knows.



To come back to topic, all this considered Rossi knows he may have more chances to beat Lorenzo in some races this year, than the next. So to make a point he will try, even if now it is legitimate to think that Yamaha will not be keen to help him, and definitely he's not going to get any new parts after Brno. He's now rider #2, on the way out.

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I agree the yamaha is still likely to be good next year, and the difficulty for valentino will be that he in a sense will be competing against himself in the form of the bike he has honed for more than 3 years. 2012 might be more revelatory concerning jorge's developmental abilities. I am not so sure about bike development being more exact these days, honda are arguably still not quite there or have only just got there in the 4th year of the 800/electronic bike formula despite recruiting yamaha technicians, and I seem to recall valentino insisting that the basic direction of development of the yamaha 800 was correct and should be persisted with when they were being beaten by stoner/ducati in 2007; he did of course somewhat encourage them to obtain more power from the engine.



I would like to think that yamaha will still give him a competitive bike for the rest of the year, and ducati similarly with stoner.

Development in MotoGP is frenetic even with reduced testing as can be highlighted by the growing gap between the Factory and Satellite Yamaha from season begin to now.



I think the big problem Yamaha will face next year if Jorge and his crew are not able to make significant changes/development to the M1, is a significant change to an outside component such as tyres.



Tyres have been a topic of concern for many of the riders in this years championship to date and arguably have had an impact on the championship that could be argued are equal to those in 2007/08. So will Bridgestone be forced to make some wholesale changes to the tyre construction to allow for a less violent consequence to insufficient heat.



Any change to such an important component of a racing motorcycle such as tyres surely requires more than a tweak of settings and perhaps as much as a change in flex in areas of the bike itself. This could be where we see the first dent in the armour of Yamaha's apparent change in focus from the proven combination of 2 GOATS to that of the young pretender and maybe an early end to the dominance of the perfectly balanced M1 that we see today



Of course this is speculation as I have read no where that a significant change in tyre construction is planned but is raised purely as a discussion point as to what could reverse the fortunes of Yamaha and hence Jorge as early as next year.

Interesting post. Welcome to the forum.

Keshav said:

Interesting post. Welcome to the forum.

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+1

J4rn0 said:

Hello, Mental. Welcome.

There is little doubt that the one who is making the best use of the current Bridgestones is Lorenzo. Any change in that area would not be in Lorenzo's advantage. But we know that they have already manufactured all the tires for the 2010 season, so changes, if any, will have to wait for 2011.

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why?

J4rn0 said:

Because, "There is little doubt that the one who is making the best use of the current Bridgestones is Lorenzo. Any change in that area would not be in Lorenzo's advantage. But we know that they have already manufactured all the tires for the 2010 season, so changes, if any, will have to wait for 2011. "

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I disagree. Its possible they could change the tyres to something that widens the gap between what Lorenzo and his competitors can get from the tyre... especially if it is primarily jorge they listen too for development.

J4rn0 said:

True. In that case, though, one could argue that it wouldn't be really a change but a further development in the same direction...?

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Thats still a change, you wouldn't say nothing has changed between two years if a rider winning the title by one point wins the following season by 100! You simply made the oversight of assuming that change could not benefit the rider currently doing the best. No worries

Arrabbiata1 said:

+1

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+2,come on in!

J4rn0 said:

I was simply assuming that change is not desirable for whoever is currently at the top of the game...

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Well that isn't really what you said at all, but i see the point you were trying to make. Although i don't agree thats always the case, think back to the end of 2001, i don't think many of us thought the rule change was going to work against Rossi