Honda or Yamaha; which will suffer the most from change to Michelins?

Keshav · Oct 2, 2015

I reckon the first half of the season will be pretty chaotic considering that not only will everybody be running on Michelins - but they will also be doing it with the control ECU.

Tho as things stand Ducati (correct me if I'm wrong) hasn't garnered enough podium spots and will be allowed to use their proprietary ECU until they do - so they might have some advantage while Honda and Yamaha are working with the control ECU to make the most out of the Michelins. Pretty intriguing considering how little has been revealed about the Michelin testing thus far and what there has been hasn't sounded promising.

Arrabbiata1 · Oct 2, 2015

Keshav said:
I reckon the first half of the season will be pretty chaotic considering that not only will everybody be running on Michelins - but they will also be doing it with the control ECU.

Tho as things stand Ducati (correct me if I'm wrong) hasn't garnered enough podium spots and will be allowed to use their proprietary ECU until they do - so they might have some advantage while Honda and Yamaha are working with the control ECU to make the most out of the Michelins. Pretty intriguing considering how little has been revealed about the Michelin testing thus far and what there has been hasn't sounded promising.

Regarding the shareware, as I mentioned recently, HRC were very much behind it. Primarily because it is no longer to be derived from RPM and throttle response electronics but torque sensors which they have not only collated significant data through trials but are also very aware of the technical manpower and logistics required to extrapolate meaningful results and optimise the package.

Lap times will plummet next season, but I expect the Michelins to be more user friendly than the 'stones once the machinery and riders have adapted. Marquez will continue to push a super stiff carcass which is no longer there.

J4rn0 · Oct 3, 2015

Arrabbiata1 said:
Regarding the shareware, as I mentioned recently, HRC were very much behind it. Primarily because it is no longer to be derived from RPM and throttle response electronics but torque sensors which they have not only collated significant data through trials but are also very aware of the technical manpower and logistics required to extrapolate meaningful results and optimise the package.

Lap times will plummet next season, but I expect the Michelins to be more user friendly than the 'stones once the machinery and riders have adapted. Marquez will continue to push a super stiff carcass which is no longer there.

Right. Marquez will suffer the most imho, followed by Rossi; Pedrosa will suffer less and Lorenzo may not suffer at all. He's the top rider who stresses the front the least.

Mick D · Oct 3, 2015

Jorge may stress the front least under braking since his style carries the most corner speed but... if the Bib fronts don't provide edge grip he's fooked.

Gaz · Oct 3, 2015

Arrabbiata1 said:
Lap times will plummet next season, but I expect the Michelins to be more user friendly than the 'stones once the machinery and riders have adapted. Marquez will continue to push a super stiff carcass which is no longer there.

Arrab, that almost reads as if you are saying that Marquez is either very slow to learn, unable to change or unwilling to change as 'he knows better'.

Whilst I am likely wrong in the reading it does raise the question of can he learn and/or change as so far in 2015 questions are getting asked louder and louder.

As to who will be most affected, I have NFI as I have not been able to watch this year as closely as years past but I do suspect that Michelin will get it right although I can already see the 'headlines' (bot forum and media release) for when it goes pear shaped on a per rider basis

Roomie · Oct 5, 2015

If I had to guess.... (and no I haven't read this whole thread yet) I'm going to say honda and not because of the machines... because of their riders. MM is very comfortable on his current tires and pushes them past their limits often. Much more than any other rider. I think he's going to have one very sharp learning curve ahead of him.

JPSLotus · Oct 5, 2015

History says MM is unwilling/unable to learn.

One only has to look at his history with unsafe riding on the track to see that in spite of the penalties he received, he seemed genuinely in disbelief that he received a penalty. He believes he can do no wrong, and has stated that he can only ride fast if he is allowed to ride the bike in the manner he rode it when he bagged his championships.

That is not a good sign when a rider openly states that they have to ride the bike in one particular way to go fast as possible. Shows a lack of adaptability. Actually what we have seen out of MM this season is down to a lack of adaptability imo...as opposed to the bike being hard to ride. The way the RCV looks this year is the same way it looked under MM in 2013 and 2014, all over the place. Only, the bike no longer runs away from everyone else.

If Michelin opts not to tailor the tires to allow for riding the .... out of the front, MM is going to have an interesting few years ahead of him. I still think he will win races, but the MM as an alien byline is going to be out the window quite quickly.

J4rn0 · Oct 6, 2015

Mick D said:
Jorge may stress the front least under braking since his style carries the most corner speed but... if the Bib fronts don't provide edge grip he's fooked.

Edge grip Michelin provided already in 2008, front and rear, so why not now -- it's the Bridgestone capacity to stand any kind of harsh treatment in aggressive corner entry that will be missed by MM and VR.

JPSLotus · Oct 6, 2015

I think what you're going to see from the Michelin's next year, is that unless the tire is tailored specifically for VR, Lorenzo is going to romp his way to the 2016 title. In the current era of MotoGP, I believe Jorge Lorenzo is the fastest rider on the grid period, only it can be a little bit difficult to pickup because of how smooth he is on the circuit. But what I would say is that some of the fastest racers in history have been notoriously smooth riders, so smooth that people thought they went slow because there was no sense of being on the ragged edge.

Take a look as this slow-mo of Lorenzo, there is none of the twitchiness or rampant front end abuse that MM has.

Jorge Lorenzo [720p] - Gfycat

WVMotoGP99 · Oct 6, 2015

JPSLotus said:
I think what you're going to see from the Michelin's next year, is that unless the tire is tailored specifically for VR, Lorenzo is going to romp his way to the 2016 title. In the current era of MotoGP, I believe Jorge Lorenzo is the fastest rider on the grid period, only it can be a little bit difficult to pickup because of how smooth he is on the circuit. But what I would say is that some of the fastest racers in history have been notoriously smooth riders, so smooth that people thought they went slow because there was no sense of being on the ragged edge.

Take a look as this slow-mo of Lorenzo, there is none of the twitchiness or rampant front end abuse that MM has.

Jorge Lorenzo [720p] - Gfycat

I like the way you think, but "romp"is a little optimistic of a word to use.

JPSLotus · Oct 6, 2015

WVMotoGP99 said:
I like the way you think, but "romp"is a little optimistic of a word to use.

Well, based on 2015, you can't count Rossi out certainly, but I think you're underestimating Lorenzo. He should have won in 2013, and likely would have if not for the shoulder. 2011 was what it was, no one was beating Stoner that year. But his 2012 title win was magnificent, so regardless of his potential to be a headcase at times, he's performed in the clutch a few times.

We're not even talking about the title chase this year if it wasn't for that HJC helmet to be honest.

The romp is a bold prediction on my part, it'll probably be wrong, but hey what the ...., no big deal.

I will say that if a certain someone came out of retirement, then the whole picture changes.

Keshav · Oct 6, 2015

JPSLotus said:
Well, based on 2015, you can't count Rossi out certainly, but I think you're underestimating Lorenzo. He should have won in 2013, and likely would have if not for the shoulder. 2011 was what it was, no one was beating Stoner that year. But his 2012 title win was magnificent, so regardless of his potential to be a headcase at times, he's performed in the clutch a few times.

We're not even talking about the title chase this year if it wasn't for that HJC helmet to be honest.

The romp is a bold prediction on my part, it'll probably be wrong, but hey what the ...., no big deal.

I will say that if a certain someone came out of retirement, then the whole picture changes.

With all due respect, what odds do you give on MM returning to winning ways in 2016? Do you believe he's capable of learning from his mistakes? Or do do you think he's hopeless?

L8Braker · Oct 6, 2015

Honda suffers the most because they have Stoner as their test rider....

Keshav · Oct 6, 2015

L8Braker said:
Honda suffers the most because they have Stoner as their test rider....

Another old name back at the ranch. Welcome back.

J4rn0 · Oct 6, 2015

JPSLotus said:
I think what you're going to see from the Michelin's next year, is that unless the tire is tailored specifically for VR, Lorenzo is going to romp his way to the 2016 title. In the current era of MotoGP, I believe Jorge Lorenzo is the fastest rider on the grid period, only it can be a little bit difficult to pickup because of how smooth he is on the circuit. But what I would say is that some of the fastest racers in history have been notoriously smooth riders, so smooth that people thought they went slow because there was no sense of being on the ragged edge.

Take a look as this slow-mo of Lorenzo, there is none of the twitchiness or rampant front end abuse that MM has.

Jorge Lorenzo [720p] - Gfycat

He may be fast, but his speed is boring. Anyway that's not so important because Honda will not screw up the bike two years in a row, and starting from next year Marquez on a sorted Honda will wipe the floor again with Lorenzo & the rest of the field. If Rossi and Lorenzo want to win another title, this is their chance. Probably the last.

Mick D · Oct 6, 2015

J4rn0 said:
Edge grip Michelin provided already in 2008, front and rear, so why not now -- it's the Bridgestone capacity to stand any kind of harsh treatment in aggressive corner entry that will be missed by MM and VR.

WTF? In 2008 Jorge hadn't even perfected his gonzo corner speed style - the Bibs were ejecting him regularly, and certainly no one before him used his extreme style... so how the hell do you know the Bibs provide the needed edge grip for Jorge?

And somehow you have forgotten that Vale was the king of the squishy front Michelins back in the day... do you think his Alzheimer's has caused him to forget how to use tyres with Bib DNA?

Keshav · Oct 7, 2015

J4rn0 said:
He may be fast, but his speed is boring. Anyway that's not so important because Honda will not screw up the bike two years in a row, and starting from next year Marquez on a sorted Honda will wipe the floor again with Lorenzo & the rest of the field. If Rossi and Lorenzo want to win another title, this is their chance. Probably the last.

My thoughts exactly.

WVMotoGP99 · Oct 7, 2015

Keshav said:
My thoughts exactly.

MM will spend just as much time wiping gravel out his ... as he did this year...

No magic wand to leap frog Honda into some Super Bike...

Next year will be a lot like this year with the JL and MM splitting wins and Rossi winning when it rain.

michaelm · Oct 7, 2015

WVMotoGP99 said:
MM will spend just as much time wiping gravel out his ... as he did this year...

. magic wand to leap frog Honda into some Super Bike...

Next year will be a lot like this year with the JL and MM splitting wins and Rossi winning when it rain.

I agree more with you than the alternative proposition. I think Honda will produce a bike more to his liking and MM will crash less, but unless Honda have a really major technical advantage he will continue to crash particularly if he keeps his current crew, and along with them his current mindset.

propagandhi · Oct 7, 2015

As a lorenzo/rossi dude I've come to like kropquez approach.

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Honda or Yamaha; which will suffer the most from change to Michelins?

Keshav

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