I honestly don't think we should be putting so much stock on Hayden for his move to Ducati, at least, not on his debut year with the factory team. The tyre situation can throw some of the former Michelin riders off along with testing. Nicky Hayden also has to contend with the fact that he's going to be the number two rider of Ducati to Stoner (look at Marco Melandri, sounds to me that Ducati completely forgot that they had an experienced and consistently strong rider signed with them and invested almost all of their attention on Stoner).