Yamaha and Kawasaki to withdraw from World Superbike?

Superbike Planet dropped the following in an article about BoP and the departure of Scott Smart.

Currently, there is a great deal of doom talk about how Ducati will dominate the 2023 WSBK season based on the assuredly impressive performance of the Ducati Panigale V4R at Phillip Island last weekend. There are rumors, or fears, that Kawasaki may pull out of the series, and however unlikely, Yamaha as well.

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The purpose of mentioning a rumor from a source that provides no supporting evidence is that the rumor has been growing and emanating from sources on multiple continents. In addition, the reasons for withdrawal appear to be multi-faceted, and each source seems to have a slightly different pathway to the rumor.

The composite of various rumors and reasons is as follows: Euro 5+ emissions regulations will be introduced for 2024 for new models and 2025 for carryover models. Though the regulations are not revolutionary, they do require significantly stricter electronic monitoring of the engine performance by the onboard diagnostics. Catalytic converters will also require full life cycle testing, rather than just guestimating the life cycle based upon deterioration over a short period of time. Additionally, Euro 6 emissions are currently being negotiated, and some pundits believe Euro 6 will be a carbon copy of Euro 7 regulations for automobiles. This will impose extraordinary costs on manufacturers attempting to certify high performance 4-cylinder engines. Higher costs and engine detuning are not a good outcome for sales figures.

Apparently, Yamaha and Kawasaki are not onbaord. They don't see a sales/profit benefit to offset the cost of getting the 1000cc Superbikes over the Euro 5+ and Euro 6 hurdles. This means the manufacturers could withdraw as early as the end of 2023, though most people suspect they will soldier through the 2024 season, and then perhaps withdraw when the R1 and ZX-10R lose their road-legal status in Europe for model year 2025. Superbike Planet is hinting that the manufacturers may also have specific grievances with the World Superbike rules themselves, which they may believe are onerous against legacy teams, and under-responsive to domination by teams that have not been winning championships (Ducati). The 500rpm reduction for Kawasaki playing a central role therefore (my inference).

We'll see what happens in the long run, but the 1000cc 4-cylinder superbike formula is in a tough spot. Maybe this is the beginning of the end for road-legal production based racing or maybe this will be the dawn of a new formula. Time will tell.

I hope the Japanese pull out both WSBK & Motogp. Let see how both series survive without them. Ducati has always played with the outer limit of the rules. I'm sure the Japanese will still have higher sales figure without going racing.

evo9 said:

I hope the Japanese pull out both WSBK & Motogp. Let see how both series survive without them. Ducati has always played with the outer limit of the rules. I'm sure the Japanese will still have higher sales figure without going racing.

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I think that might be what some of the EU regulators are hoping to achieve. Dorna barely protested when Suzuki withdrew. No rules were changed, unlike the end of the 800cc era, when Dorna was seemingly bending over backwards to attract new European entrants. I don't have a particularly strong preference for European or Japanese manufacturers, though I will surely miss the reliability of the Japanese sportbikes, if this era proves to be their swan song.

The unfortunate reality for the Japanese is that they married themselves to an engine architecture and specific power output that is now out of fashion. They are having similar problems in the automotive market, particularly Honda, who have lost much of their identity in the wake of emissions regulations.

Throughout the years, it seems SBK has experienced four turnings. The first formula was superbike for the few. Then SBK moved to superbikes for everyone. That was eclipsed by MotoGP-lite bikes for few. Followed by MotoGP-lite bikes for everyone. The Japanese have always been in the Superbikes for everyone camp, but this would require them to completely reinvent their powertrain portfolio for performance sportbikes. I'm not sure they are in the mood.

mylexicon said:

I think that might be what some of the EU regulators are hoping to achieve. Dorna barely protested when Suzuki withdrew. No rules were changed, unlike the end of the 800cc era, when Dorna was seemingly bending over backwards to attract new European entrants. I don't have a particularly strong preference for European or Japanese manufacturers, though I will surely miss the reliability of the Japanese sportbikes, if this era proves to be their swan song.

The unfortunate reality for the Japanese is that they married themselves to an engine architecture and specific power output that is now out of fashion. They are having similar problems in the automotive market, particularly Honda, who have lost much of their identity in the wake of emissions regulations.

Throughout the years, it seems SBK has experienced four turnings. The first formula was superbike for the few. Then SBK moved to superbikes for everyone. That was eclipsed by MotoGP-lite bikes for few. Followed by MotoGP-lite bikes for everyone. The Japanese have always been in the Superbikes for everyone camp, but this would require them to completely reinvent their powertrain portfolio for performance sportbikes. I'm not sure they are in the mood.

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Are you referring to I4 vs V4. ?

evo9 said:

I hope the Japanese pull out both WSBK & Motogp. Let see how both series survive without them. Ducati has always played with the outer limit of the rules. I'm sure the Japanese will still have higher sales figure without going racing.

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I have always loved Ducatis, but am not sure turning the sport into an advertisement for a hyperluxury brand is the way to go.

povol said:

Are you referring to I4 vs V4. ?

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I was referring to all 4-cylinder engines. The architecture itself is not in conflict with the regulations, but the benefits of the 4-cylinder architecture (power density via engine rpm) has drawn the ire of the EU, and put Superbikes in a bad spot. Supersport has already been decimated by regs.

The same regulatory trend caught the Japanese off-guard in the automotive segment as well. They were all-in when the FIA introduced the Super 2000 and Super 1600 formulas, which were designed to replace Group A. Honda even built the S2000 to promote the new formula. But US and EU regulators had different ideas, and they basically banished the market segments that were supposed to underpin the new super formulas. Then the market pivoted somewhat violently towards forced induction, and the Japanese automotive industry was left in a quandary. Honda was the most heavily impacted as their naturally-aspirated identity was stripped away by regulators.

This is just history repeating