I was thinking the same thing.
But I'll say finishes in sixth place.
He performed well here last year, didn't he finish fourth?
you are right. now that I looked it up I remember the race was pretty much a snore fest last year.
1.Jorge LorenzoESP Movistar Yamaha MotoGP (YZR-M1) 44m 57.246s
2.Marc MarquezESP Repsol Honda Team (RC213V) 45m 2.822s
3.Valentino RossiITA Movistar Yamaha MotoGP (YZR-M1) 45m 8.832s
4.Cal CrutchlowGBR CWM LCR Honda (RC213V) 45m 19.973s
5.Pol EspargaroESP Monster Yamaha Tech 3 (YZR-M1) 45m 23.866s
6.Andrea IannoneITA Ducati Team (Desmosedici GP15) 45m 24.267s
7.Aleix EspargaroESP Team Suzuki Ecstar (GSX-RR) 45m 32.691s
8.Bradley SmithGBR Monster Yamaha Tech 3 (YZR-M1) 45m 33.542s
9.Andrea DoviziosoITA Ducati Team (Desmosedici GP15) 45m 39.179s
10.Yonny HernandezCOL Pramac Racing (Desmosedici GP14.2) 45m 48.318s
Anyways, I think he will be seriously scared of falling off once more, so that will take some of the edge of him that sometimes leads him to decent results (and becoming a decent geologist, too, collecting samples from any gravel pit on any track in any country..). Therefore my pick of P8, as this is where I see him performance-wise given the circumstances. In turn, however, if we have as many fallers as im the first three rounds, he might even end up a place or two higher than you predicted. Anyways, my money is on no crash.