Predictions: Where will Zarco go next?

Zarco Mania is upon us. Rumours are flying. Zarco is said to be talking to HRC, and really, just about everyone other than KTM.

If HRC sends Dani packing, would Marquez okay it? Would he have veto power? Would HRC really want a rider that competitive? Wouldn't Zarco be more useful than Pedrosa for developing the bike?

If Lorenzo bails for Suzuki would Zarco move to Ducati for a bigger paycheck?

At the moment I think it's too up in the air, like you said he seems to be interested in everybody except KTM (ironically).

I think Suzuki is a no. They reneged on a pre-contract with him and they aren't competitive enough for him to overlook that. HRC are in a difficult position; if pedders continues helping Honda get the manufacturers trophy while Marquez racks up championships, they don't need to change him. However there is probably going to be a point sooner rather than later where Pedrosa's performances start to drop off a cliff (be it he loses motivation, internal squabbling or just outright loses pace) and by then, Honda may have missed the boat for a decent replacement. I don't think Marquez has the power to veto a team mate, but would Honda risk upsetting the harmony with a rider who has won them the title every year bar one since he joined?

If Lorenzo sucks on the Ducati, I'd like to see him go to Suzuki but I doubt that will happen. Ducati have said they want to keep him, and even with his current performance he is probably too expensive for zook.

#22 said:

At the moment I think it's too up in the air, like you said he seems to be interested in everybody except KTM (ironically).

I think Suzuki is a no. They reneged on a pre-contract with him and they aren't competitive enough for him to overlook that. HRC are in a difficult position; if pedders continues helping Honda get the manufacturers trophy while Marquez racks up championships, they don't need to change him. However there is probably going to be a point sooner rather than later where Pedrosa's performances start to drop off a cliff (be it he loses motivation, internal squabbling or just outright loses pace) and by then, Honda may have missed the boat for a decent replacement. I don't think Marquez has the power to veto a team mate, but would Honda risk upsetting the harmony with a rider who has won them the title every year bar one since he joined?

If Lorenzo sucks on the Ducati, I'd like to see him go to Suzuki but I doubt that will happen. Ducati have said they want to keep him, and even with his current performance he is probably too expensive for zook.

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Even if Ducati keeps Lorenzo on in ‘19 Zarco could still get a seat. If I’m not mistaken Ducati is running three full factory bikes. If Lorenzo fails to adapt this year - Ducati would show him the door. Look at how they turned on Melandri and Stoner.

If Zarco wanted the HRC seat he could afford to make a low ball offer for the first year contingent on a much higher salary or a big bonus in the following year based on results. He’s young with good years ahead of him. I reckon Ducati must be wondering how long Dovi can maintain his current winning streak. That’s got to be a deciding factor.

I have a hard time thinking Honda would want to carve up points between 2 riders, so as much as I don’t care for Cal he would move up and maybe Zarco takes his place at LCR if he ends up on a Honda. I don’t think Marc is afraid of the challenge, but why would Honda chance losing a wrc? I suspect Zarco will land at Suzuki before Ducati. Depending on how things shake down at Ducati with Lorenzo’s performance this year. Don’t foresee Lorenzo leaving unless he can’t make it into the top 10 consistently. Pay cut or not. If he does go, he goes to Suzuki, petrux takes his spot. No Zarco. I think KTM is still his most likely and most logical landing spot. I’m sure he will have the #1 rider status and they will have a top 5 bike by 2020. I just think they need someone that can ride it.

I don’t think we’re going to know anything for a few races. After one 1–off type track it tough to gauge who is going where. We need a few European rounds before we can see actual competitiveness.

I would like to see Lorenzo to zuke, petrux to aprillia, Dani to ktm/Zarco to ktm, cal to Repsol, Morbidelli to LCR Lowes staying where he is, ....... moving up to the factory bike, and ianonne sweeping a warehouse.

Keshav said:

Even if Ducati keeps Lorenzo on in ‘19 Zarco could still get a seat. If I’m not mistaken Ducati is running three full factory bikes. If Lorenzo fails to adapt this year - Ducati would show him the door. Look at how they turned on Melandri and Stoner.

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True, but they have Miller (who admittedly is out of contract at the end of the yr) and already signed Bagnaia. So they have to boot Miller if they want Zarco.

gbphantom said:

and ianonne sweeping a warehouse.

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:lol: I think he's headed to WSBK after this yr tbh. I can't see who else would want him.

Everyone assumes Zarco would do well on the RC213V, but it's not a ride-on-rails bike like the M1. Having Marquez as your teammate is tough when the whole garage is on his side, sort of like the problem Ayrton Senna's teammates ran into, especially during his Lotus days.

I don't think his smooth approach would work on a bike that demands physicality and has the apex shape that it has. The bike is better than it has been for the last 3 seasons but its still the hardest of the factory bikes to ride. Sure being on one of the anointed factory bikes may seem good in theory to Zarco, but everything about his riding style says otherwise. He'll risk being the Alex Criville to Marquez's Michael Doohan. His confidence may be high right now, but part of it is because he has the pace to run with and beat the factory Yamaha machines due to their ....-ups. The other part is he hasn't been tested by a teammate of Marquez's caliber.

gbphantom said:

I think KTM is still his most likely and most logical landing spot. I’m sure he will have the #1 rider status and they will have a top 5 bike by 2020. I just think they need someone that can ride it.

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They have 2 people who can ride a KTM properly, Miguel Oliveira and Brad Binder.

JPSLotus said:

Everyone assumes Zarco would do well on the RC213V, but it's not a ride-on-rails bike like the M1. Having Marquez as your teammate is tough when the whole garage is on his side, sort of like the problem Ayrton Senna's teammates ran into, especially during his Lotus days.

I don't think his smooth approach would work on a bike that demands physicality and has the apex shape that it has. The bike is better than it has been for the last 3 seasons but its still the hardest of the factory bikes to ride. Sure being on one of the anointed factory bikes may seem good in theory to Zarco, but everything about his riding style says otherwise. He'll risk being the Alex Criville to Marquez's Michael Doohan. His confidence may be high right now, but part of it is because he has the pace to run with and beat the factory Yamaha machines due to their ....-ups. The other part is he hasn't been tested by a teammate of Marquez's caliber.

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How do you know its the hardest factory bike to ride? To me the hardest bikes to ride are the crap ones and Honda don't do crap bikes.

JPSLotus said:

Everyone assumes Zarco would do well on the RC213V, but it's not a ride-on-rails bike like the M1. Having Marquez as your teammate is tough when the whole garage is on his side, sort of like the problem Ayrton Senna's teammates ran into, especially during his Lotus days.

I don't think his smooth approach would work on a bike that demands physicality and has the apex shape that it has. The bike is better than it has been for the last 3 seasons but its still the hardest of the factory bikes to ride. Sure being on one of the anointed factory bikes may seem good in theory to Zarco, but everything about his riding style says otherwise. He'll risk being the Alex Criville to Marquez's Michael Doohan. His confidence may be high right now, but part of it is because he has the pace to run with and beat the factory Yamaha machines due to their ....-ups. The other part is he hasn't been tested by a teammate of Marquez's caliber.

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I would like to see him on one of the “wild” bikes and see what his adaptability is. The rcv has made several good riders look silly. Same with the Desmo. That’s why I feel like cal will get that 2nd bike if Dani were to move one, which I don’t see him leaving. They know the characteristic of the bike and Dani doesn’t seem to be a threat and Cal may be in love with Marc so he won’t ruin their chances. ...., he chucks his bike off the track so he can get back to the pits to wat h the races as frequently as he can

Zarco shouldn't consider HRC or any Honda, as already mentioned Marquez would rule the roost and he would get very frustrated.
Duc would be interesting but I don't think Jorge is going anywhere, I predict he goes on a podium streak with some possible wins. Also Ducati seem intent on keeping its current rider line up. Having said that the GiGi Ducati is a machine I think Zarco could ride well.
Suzuki would fit his riding style for sure, only problem is it's Suzuki! Who the heck knows if they will be able to get that bike to the pointy end with their budget?
KTM has the money and ambition, it takes time to develop a proper race bike, but if they can't get a guy like Zarco to consider them there must be something else going on behind the scene we common folk know nothing about?
Ok, now for the part where I get ran off the forum.....Yamaha had the perfect opportunity to put Zarco on it's factory M1 next year but signed Vale to another contract. Not slagging Rossi folks, but damn, Yamaha can't honestly think he can win another championship?
Yea, I'll eat crow if Rossi pulls one out of his arse this year.
//L8

Theo said:

How do you know its the hardest factory bike to ride? To me the hardest bikes to ride are the crap ones and Honda don't do crap bikes.

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Honda don't do crap bikes? How about that 2007 Pedrocycle?

Honda ...... up in 2015 with the screamer engine that performed in the heat of Malaysia, and then didn't perform so well as soon as cooler temperatures came along. They had problems well into 2017 with their bike. Marquez was the difference maker on the last screamer they built in 2016, and when he got the right baseline setup at last year's midpoint, he started reeling off wins.

I hate Crutchlow but he has said numerous times the Honda is the most difficult of the factory bikes to ride because it requires far more physicality than any of the others including the Desmosedici.

Theo said:

How do you know its the hardest factory bike to ride? To me the hardest bikes to ride are the crap ones and Honda don't do crap bikes.

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They are not crap bikes in any literal sense. They are according to many, very high strung unlike the more tractable "ride on rails" Yamaha. Ask yourself, who has won championships on the Honda in the years after 2006? Only two extraordinary riders. Stoner and Marquez both famous for riding in a constant state of crash and save. IMHO Marquez has already surpassed Stoner in that regard.

L8Braker said:

Ok, now for the part where I get ran off the forum.....Yamaha had the perfect opportunity to put Zarco on it's factory M1 next year but signed Vale to another contract. Not slagging Rossi folks, but damn, Yamaha can't honestly think he can win another championship?
Yea, I'll eat crow if Rossi pulls one out of his arse this year.
//L8

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Honestly? I don't believe they think he can either, but he is a marketing god. The term 'Pay Driver' has been used in F1 for a long time, can Rossi finally be classed as a 'pay rider'? I know he podiumed last time out but I doubt he will be consistently in the top 3 this yr.

Little Walter said:

They are not crap bikes in any literal sense. They are according to many, very high strung unlike the more tractable "ride on rails" Yamaha. Ask yourself, who has won championships on the Honda in the years after 2006? Only two extraordinary riders. Stoner and Marquez both famous for riding in a constant state of crash and save. IMHO Marquez has already surpassed Stoner in that regard.

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Honda can be it's own worst enemy due to arrogance. Hell who knows maybe they thought boredom would set in if they won all the time?

L8Braker said:

Honda can be it's own worst enemy due to arrogance. Hell who knows maybe they thought boredom would set in if they won all the time?

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I know I've said this before somewhere; but that has been true historically (or at least as long as I've been following the sport). My first intimation of this was back when Erv Kanemoto was doing all kinds of unauthorized modifications to Freddie Spencer's frames. There were rumors then that he even used frames not made by Honda because they wouldn't listen to his requests for changes based on Spencer's input. There was a fair amount of tension between him and HRC - tho it was kept on the down-low. So yes - they have always had a kind of almost chauvinistic arrogance that seemed to prioritize showcasing flashy engineering advances over actually winning races.

Theo said:

Honda don't do crap bikes.

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Arrabbiata1 said:

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Wooof!

Theo said:

How do you know its the hardest factory bike to ride? To me the hardest bikes to ride are the crap ones and Honda don't do crap bikes.

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The general consensus in the paddock is the Honda is very fast bike if you figure out how to ride it. It takes a lot of physical rider input to find its limits and is designed to make time under braking, a big reason Dani has never reached his potential in GP. He is not physical and is not a late braker.

Arrabbiata1 said:

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Or this:

he hasn't even won a race yet, a couple years ago Maverick was in this position, and before that Jack Miller... his riding style does not seem to fit the Honda or the Ducati, however Ducati has a better arrangement with their satellite teams, and might be able to work out a deal with Pramac (though a very good case can be made for keeping both Petrucci and Miller).

Honda would need to dump Pedrosa, and that could mean all sorts of rider moves.

Personally I think KTM might be his best fit, they have $$$, he would be a #1 rider, and soon they will have a competitive bike.