Musical Chairs 2011

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Ok, so lets assume the rumours are true;

Rossi to Ducati (probably to partner Nicky Hayden).

Stoner to Honda in a super team with Pedro and Dovizio

Lorenzo at Yamaha on the M1, probably with Spies (??).



What does it all mean;



I think Rossi and JB will effectively build a Red M1. The Ducati is not far off the pace now, and with the inside knowledge of how the M1 works, and with some existing very smart guys at Ducati, I think the Ducati with Rossi on board will be fast. The big winner will be Hayden, getting a bike that he can ride, with better feel and grip.



I think Stoner has got better feel for the bike, and is able to ride closer to the limit than Pedro (although they are both a little fragile). I think Stoner will initially find it tough to make the Honda work, and I think the attitude at Honda will do his head in. Expect him to be really fast, and winning races but expect a few melt downs on the way.

I think Dovi will be the big winner from having Stoner in the Honda camp, and finally will get a bike not purpose built for Pedro. I think Pedro will be the big loser and will struggle.



Lorenzo has already got the best mousetrap. Will he be able to keep the Yamaha ahead of the Ducati and Honda's, without the benefit of Rossi and JB. I think probably yes, and expect Ben Spies to be closer to the front on a factory M1, with a better brains trust on making the bike go fast. Spes will be the big winner here.



Expect to see the same 4 'aliens' at the front in 2011, but with better results from all of Hayden, Spies and Dovi.

It might be the only chance of injecting some life into MotoGP. I think a Red bike with a yellow 46 on the front will be very close to the front.
 
Ok, so lets assume the rumours are true;

Rossi to Ducati (probably to partner Nicky Hayden).

Stoner to Honda in a super team with Pedro and Dovizio

Lorenzo at Yamaha on the M1, probably with Spies (??).



What does it all mean;



I think Rossi and JB will effectively build a Red M1. The Ducati is not far off the pace now, and with the inside knowledge of how the M1 works, and with some existing very smart guys at Ducati, I think the Ducati with Rossi on board will be fast. The big winner will be Hayden, getting a bike that he can ride, with better feel and grip.



I think Stoner has got better feel for the bike, and is able to ride closer to the limit than Pedro (although they are both a little fragile). I think Stoner will initially find it tough to make the Honda work, and I think the attitude at Honda will do his head in. Expect him to be really fast, and winning races but expect a few melt downs on the way.

I think Dovi will be the big winner from having Stoner in the Honda camp, and finally will get a bike not purpose built for Pedro. I think Pedro will be the big loser and will struggle.



Lorenzo has already got the best mousetrap. Will he be able to keep the Yamaha ahead of the Ducati and Honda's, without the benefit of Rossi and JB. I think probably yes, and expect Ben Spies to be closer to the front on a factory M1, with a better brains trust on making the bike go fast. Spes will be the big winner here.



Expect to see the same 4 'aliens' at the front in 2011, but with better results from all of Hayden, Spies and Dovi.

It might be the only chance of injecting some life into MotoGP. I think a Red bike with a yellow 46 on the front will be very close to the front.





Rossi and JB are undeniably brilliant - but I don't see them sorting out the Ducati in less than 8 races.



Love Hayden - but I think he hit his zenith in 2006. Hayden has put in so much time and energy trying

to make the Ducati user-friendly and he hasn't had consistent results; if Rossi takes the bike in yet another

new direction - I don't see Hayden quickly adapting to yet another variation. Moreover - if Rossi and crew are

in the house - all the R&D energy will be transferred away from Hayden.



Spies will do well wherever he goes (Suzuki excepted).
 
If rossi is on the duck, which I still doubt, they will have sorted immeadiately. And it's not far off anyway. I don't believe Dovi will benefit too much from having Stoner on a Honda as we know cs's record for development isn't great as he requires a specific package even more so than pedders. Randy and Dovi have already proven that the Honda is still quite rider friendly.



Again though the worrying part about all this is our focus on next year, which is seemingly already more exciting than present events......
 
I don't think Rossi will be able to turn the Ducati into an M1. Reason being is that the bikes are completely different. The Yamaha like the Honda is a twin spar aluminium frame that links the head to the swingarm pivot and as far as I know the engine is not a full stressed member. The Ducati bolts a carbon fibre head to one end of the engine and the swing arm (also carbon fibre) has the pivot mounts directly bolted to the other end of the engine. The sub frame also hangs of the engine. The 2 ideologies are worlds apart and there is no way that Ducati are going to build a twin spar aluminium frame just for Rossi.



The switch from Honda to Yamaha was easy because they have the same ideology for building a bike. All Rossi had to do was change the engine to behave like the Honda V5.



Rossi is going to have to learn to ride a Ducati.



I think Lorenzo will eventually have his hands full with Spies because I don't think Spies will fall for the mind tricks like Rossi has.



I hope that Honda put Stoner in a single rider Red Bull team and let them develop the bike in a totally different direction to the Repsol team of Dovi & Pedrosa.



Unfortunately for Hayden I think he will be basically a Satellite rider should he be in the same team as Rossi. He will have no say in anything and will probably never see Rossi's data. Hayden will be the new Edwards - in other words Rossi's test ......



The only other addition to factory rides I would like to see is DePuniet as a team mate to Stoner on a Red Bull Honda.
 
I just had anoher thought.



Lets say Stoner does go Honda ( that is possibly the more believeable of the two rumours )



and Rossi stays put, then who will Duc. get?
 
I just had anoher thought.



Lets say Stoner does go Honda ( that is possibly the more believeable of the two rumours )



and Rossi stays put, then who will Duc. get?





If Rossi stays at Yamaha it's because Jorge is gone, so Lorenzo to Ducati would be the next option.
 



Hayden and DePuniet. Team Playgirl Ducati.
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If Rossi stays at Yamaha it's because Jorge is gone, so Lorenzo to Ducati would be the next option.



I can't believe either one would want to leave Yamaha.



If it is all that competitive between the two of them then each will want to be on the guaranteed best bike they can get ....... Yamaha.



If Rossi goes Duc. then I see it as the precursor to retirement.
 
Capirossi has stated an intent to ride a Duke more than once this year,it would be foolish to ignore him.
 
Capirossi has stated an intent to ride a Duke more than once this year,it would be foolish to ignore him.



Well here's my twopence worth:



Rossi to Duc - with or w/o JB

Stoner - Honda and mutual frustration/ disappointment

Lolo Macho - last good year in 2011 - increased comp;etition from Elboze- then no bike after rule change

Elboz - big time winner in 2011 with M1 factory bike

Dovi - getting better all the time

Pedrobot - going backwards and in danger if Repsol stops support

Capi - possibly Pramac but probably retirement. - with CE

Hayden Duc test .....,

Rossi - chance for WC in 2011 and favorite for 2012
 

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