It's the offseason. Time to read some tea leaves. Maybe we can figure out where the motorcycle racing industry could be headed in the long term, and how the puzzle pieces will fit together.
Production Racing
Most of the new information each year pertains to production motorcycles. Euro 5 emissions standards are already taking a bite out of the performance motorcycle segments by strictly regulating unburned hydrocarbons. The most obvious change required by the regs related to valve overlap on high performance engines. To preserve published power figures, the manufacturers would necessarily implement new sophisticated variable valve timing systems. The better the VVT system, the more horsepower could be saved from the emissions regulators. The possibility of lower peak rpm was already pressuring short stroke 4-cylinder superbike engines, but Kevin Cameron recently revealed another hurdle. High compression performance engines tend to push unburned hydrocarbons into the piston rings, crankcase and head gaskets where they later evaporate and foul emissions. The easiest way to address this issue is to delete cylinders to reduce the piston-ring and head gasket area.
In response to Euro 5 strictures, and the looming Euro 5+ regulations for 2024, manufacturers have already started removing sportbikes from their model lineups. Suzuki has perhaps been the most affected by the regulations, and they've chosen to pull the GSX-R600, GSX-R750, and recently the GSXR-1000 from European showrooms. Long story short, competition sportbikes are in a tough spot. The 600s are already gone, and the 1000s may not be long for this world. Aprilia already ditched the 1000cc capacity limit to meet Euro 4 regulations. Now Suzuki has thrown in the towel. Unclear if more superbikes will be lost with Euro 5+ and subsequent regs, particularly if sales trends continue to move away from supersport motorcycles.
To be frank, production racing is in crisis, and at a major crossroads. If the SBK Comission want to continue competing with road-legal production motorcycles, they will need to introduce a new formula similar to World Supersport with higher horsepower regulations. But maybe the SBK Commission would rather adopt a different concept, like using competition-only production motorcycles that are not road legal.
My personal hope is that the World Supersport balance of performance is retuned for another 20-30 horsepower, and it effectively becomes Superbike. The 750cc super twins are tuned for another 20-30 horsepower, and they become the new Supersport. This would make the series more accessible to riders, and allow the promoters to return to classic venues like Monza, Imola, Laguna Seca, Albacete, and more. However, internal combustion engines may not be long for this world, and the MSMA may only be interested in maintaining the status quo for as long as possible.
Prototype Racing
Prototype racing functions independently of production racing, but the players in both series are the same, and MotoGP does not live on an island. If Superbike eliminates the existing crop of 600cc Supersports and 1000cc Superbikes from competition, it creates opportunity for GP. The 600s and 1000s are not less entertaining, they are simply not compatible with European emissions regulations. Plus, the manufacturers have time and money invested in these machines, and attaching them to a revenue stream, rather than retiring them is preferable. Dorna would also have access to lower cost competition machinery.
The most obvious potential change could be for Moto2. The 600cc Supersports already share a common engine architecture and a common bore number, though Kawasaki uses a long stroke crank. It seems like the Japanese manufacturers could somewhat easily create uniform regulations for competition-only 600cc bikes. This would provide the Japanese with a revenue stream, and allow Moto2 to run at the national level like the 250s before them.
But what about the 1000s? If they are being regulated out of existence, how do they relate, if at all to the GP paddock......which has engine homologations and freezes......and whose promoter once created a CRT class and has expressed an interest in substantially reducing engine power of MotoGP's 81mm 1000cc engines. I don't want to say anything heretical, but sort of wonder if the GPC will find a way to implement these engines and electronics packages into the MotoGP paddock, particularly if the manufacturers and promoters believe production racing is a lost cause, and they are merely counting the days until SBK is retired. Currently, MotoGP rev ceilings are much too high for production engines with valve springs, but future regulations could change the situation, particularly if MotoGP follows F1 by regulating fuel flow by rpm. Scant evidence exists for such a revolutionary change, but new engine regulations in automobile sport could point in that direction. Plus, Dorna has control over the spec ECU and software, in addition to regulating fuel pressure. I'm not sure it's far fetched to assume they could request a change to the ECU to control power.
Conclusion
Motorcycle racing is in a quandary, caught between the demands of regulators and the demands of the competitors. If I rendered a guess, the Japanese are pushing for Superbike to continue, despite adverse regulatory and consumer trends. The European manufacturers, including Ducati, are probably somewhat ambivalent, and Dorna is 100% in favor of merging the series. I believe all factions are simultaneously pursuing their own desired outcome, hence the confused mixing of concepts in production motorcycle racing, but all parties probably hold a common belief--that SBK cannot continue unchanged as a competition-only production motorcycle series. At minimum SBK gets a total reboot as WSS+. At maximum, the series plods along unchanged for 1 or 2 more 5-year-cycles before it is retired completely.
The fate of the SBK paddock will have a profound impact on the GP paddock, and since SBK cannot maintain the status quo indefinitely (imo), a major tectonic shift will also occur in MotoGP. The fog of war surrounding MotoGP's future is thick. Anyone who can guess what will happen has my respect. I doubt the competitors even know how this will all shake out.
Production Racing
Most of the new information each year pertains to production motorcycles. Euro 5 emissions standards are already taking a bite out of the performance motorcycle segments by strictly regulating unburned hydrocarbons. The most obvious change required by the regs related to valve overlap on high performance engines. To preserve published power figures, the manufacturers would necessarily implement new sophisticated variable valve timing systems. The better the VVT system, the more horsepower could be saved from the emissions regulators. The possibility of lower peak rpm was already pressuring short stroke 4-cylinder superbike engines, but Kevin Cameron recently revealed another hurdle. High compression performance engines tend to push unburned hydrocarbons into the piston rings, crankcase and head gaskets where they later evaporate and foul emissions. The easiest way to address this issue is to delete cylinders to reduce the piston-ring and head gasket area.
In response to Euro 5 strictures, and the looming Euro 5+ regulations for 2024, manufacturers have already started removing sportbikes from their model lineups. Suzuki has perhaps been the most affected by the regulations, and they've chosen to pull the GSX-R600, GSX-R750, and recently the GSXR-1000 from European showrooms. Long story short, competition sportbikes are in a tough spot. The 600s are already gone, and the 1000s may not be long for this world. Aprilia already ditched the 1000cc capacity limit to meet Euro 4 regulations. Now Suzuki has thrown in the towel. Unclear if more superbikes will be lost with Euro 5+ and subsequent regs, particularly if sales trends continue to move away from supersport motorcycles.
To be frank, production racing is in crisis, and at a major crossroads. If the SBK Comission want to continue competing with road-legal production motorcycles, they will need to introduce a new formula similar to World Supersport with higher horsepower regulations. But maybe the SBK Commission would rather adopt a different concept, like using competition-only production motorcycles that are not road legal.
My personal hope is that the World Supersport balance of performance is retuned for another 20-30 horsepower, and it effectively becomes Superbike. The 750cc super twins are tuned for another 20-30 horsepower, and they become the new Supersport. This would make the series more accessible to riders, and allow the promoters to return to classic venues like Monza, Imola, Laguna Seca, Albacete, and more. However, internal combustion engines may not be long for this world, and the MSMA may only be interested in maintaining the status quo for as long as possible.
Prototype Racing
Prototype racing functions independently of production racing, but the players in both series are the same, and MotoGP does not live on an island. If Superbike eliminates the existing crop of 600cc Supersports and 1000cc Superbikes from competition, it creates opportunity for GP. The 600s and 1000s are not less entertaining, they are simply not compatible with European emissions regulations. Plus, the manufacturers have time and money invested in these machines, and attaching them to a revenue stream, rather than retiring them is preferable. Dorna would also have access to lower cost competition machinery.
The most obvious potential change could be for Moto2. The 600cc Supersports already share a common engine architecture and a common bore number, though Kawasaki uses a long stroke crank. It seems like the Japanese manufacturers could somewhat easily create uniform regulations for competition-only 600cc bikes. This would provide the Japanese with a revenue stream, and allow Moto2 to run at the national level like the 250s before them.
But what about the 1000s? If they are being regulated out of existence, how do they relate, if at all to the GP paddock......which has engine homologations and freezes......and whose promoter once created a CRT class and has expressed an interest in substantially reducing engine power of MotoGP's 81mm 1000cc engines. I don't want to say anything heretical, but sort of wonder if the GPC will find a way to implement these engines and electronics packages into the MotoGP paddock, particularly if the manufacturers and promoters believe production racing is a lost cause, and they are merely counting the days until SBK is retired. Currently, MotoGP rev ceilings are much too high for production engines with valve springs, but future regulations could change the situation, particularly if MotoGP follows F1 by regulating fuel flow by rpm. Scant evidence exists for such a revolutionary change, but new engine regulations in automobile sport could point in that direction. Plus, Dorna has control over the spec ECU and software, in addition to regulating fuel pressure. I'm not sure it's far fetched to assume they could request a change to the ECU to control power.
Conclusion
Motorcycle racing is in a quandary, caught between the demands of regulators and the demands of the competitors. If I rendered a guess, the Japanese are pushing for Superbike to continue, despite adverse regulatory and consumer trends. The European manufacturers, including Ducati, are probably somewhat ambivalent, and Dorna is 100% in favor of merging the series. I believe all factions are simultaneously pursuing their own desired outcome, hence the confused mixing of concepts in production motorcycle racing, but all parties probably hold a common belief--that SBK cannot continue unchanged as a competition-only production motorcycle series. At minimum SBK gets a total reboot as WSS+. At maximum, the series plods along unchanged for 1 or 2 more 5-year-cycles before it is retired completely.
The fate of the SBK paddock will have a profound impact on the GP paddock, and since SBK cannot maintain the status quo indefinitely (imo), a major tectonic shift will also occur in MotoGP. The fog of war surrounding MotoGP's future is thick. Anyone who can guess what will happen has my respect. I doubt the competitors even know how this will all shake out.
