How do rate Marquez's chances at beating these records?

p4p1 · Mar 10, 2021

Overall Most Wins:
122 - Ago
Marquez currently on 82 wins, assuming a 35 year old retirement Marquez would need to average anything over 5 wins per season over the next 8 seasons.
I think this one is 50/50 Marquez's worst 2 seasons win wise were both 5 win seasons. His average wins per season including last season is still up at 7 (8 if you don't count last season) so statistically it is still very much in the realm of possibility.

Most Premier Class Wins:
89 - Rossi
Marquez currently on 56 wins, assuming 35 year old retirement Marquez would need to average 4.125 wins per season to equal Rossi. Assuming a full recovery for Marquez I think this one goes. I would give an 80 or so % chance for this one.

100 Premier Class Wins:
Currently at 56 and as mentioned above average 7 wins per season for the last 8 seasons. If Marquez was to race until he as 35 he would need to average 5.5 wins per season. Slightly harder than Ago's record but I think if he gets Ago's record he will stay on if required looking for #100.

Most Premier Class Titles:
8 - Ago
I would be surprised if Marquez doesn't equal or beat this one.

Most Overall Titles:
15 - Ago
Marquez is currently on 8, to equal Ago he would have to win 7 of the next 8 titles. I don't think it's impossible but 8 years is a long time for nothing major to go wrong. I don't think Ago needs to be worried about this one.

Most Consecutive Premier Class Titles:
See above

Oldest World Champion:
37 years, 340 days - Leslie Graham.
I just don't see this record ever being beaten. I believe Marquez is better than Rossi ever was and if Rossi was able to realisitcally challenge in his mid 30's there is no reason why Marquez won't be able to but in 2031 will Marquez still be even riding unhampered by injury? I'm not so sure. Rossi longevity is impressive and might be the only thing Marquez will be unable to match or beat Rossi at.

Most Premier Class Podiums:
199 - Rossi
Marquez needs to average over 13 podiums per season to equal/beat Rossi who is currently on 199 (likely 200 by seasons end. People as always will fall off in front of him giving him one). But 13 podiums per season is some serious consistency. The one thing to Marquez's advantage is the series looking to go to 20 races once the pandemic has been managed better world wide. At 20 races a season Marquez needs an average of 66 (currently 74.2) on podium percentage. Not so impossible but 8 seasons is a long time.

Obviously everything is up in the air with Marquez's injury but assuming 100% or close to fix what does everyone else think of his chances of equalling or surpassing those and possible other records?

michaelm · Mar 10, 2021

p4p1 said:
Overall Most Wins:
122 - Ago
Marquez currently on 82 wins, assuming a 35 year old retirement Marquez would need to average anything over 5 wins per season over the next 8 seasons.
I think this one is 50/50 Marquez's worst 2 seasons win wise were both 5 win seasons. His average wins per season including last season is still up at 7 (8 if you don't count last season) so statistically it is still very much in the realm of possibility.

Most Premier Class Wins:
89 - Rossi
Marquez currently on 56 wins, assuming 35 year old retirement Marquez would need to average 4.125 wins per season to equal Rossi. Assuming a full recovery for Marquez I think this one goes. I would give an 80 or so % chance for this one.

100 Premier Class Wins:
Currently at 56 and as mentioned above average 7 wins per season for the last 8 seasons. If Marquez was to race until he as 35 he would need to average 5.5 wins per season. Slightly harder than Ago's record but I think if he gets Ago's record he will stay on if required looking for #100.

Most Premier Class Titles:
8 - Ago
I would be surprised if Marquez doesn't equal or beat this one.

Most Overall Titles:
15 - Ago
Marquez is currently on 8, to equal Ago he would have to win 7 of the next 8 titles. I don't think it's impossible but 8 years is a long time for nothing major to go wrong. I don't think Ago needs to be worried about this one.

Most Consecutive Premier Class Titles:
See above

Oldest World Champion:
37 years, 340 days - Leslie Graham.
I just don't see this record ever being beaten. I believe Marquez is better than Rossi ever was and if Rossi was able to realisitcally challenge in his mid 30's there is no reason why Marquez won't be able to but in 2031 will Marquez still be even riding unhampered by injury? I'm not so sure. Rossi longevity is impressive and might be the only thing Marquez will be unable to match or beat Rossi at.

Most Premier Class Podiums:
199 - Rossi
Marquez needs to average over 13 podiums per season to equal/beat Rossi who is currently on 199 (likely 200 by seasons end. People as always will fall off in front of him giving him one). But 13 podiums per season is some serious consistency. The one thing to Marquez's advantage is the series looking to go to 20 races once the pandemic has been managed better world wide. At 20 races a season Marquez needs an average of 66 (currently 74.2) on podium percentage. Not so impossible but 8 seasons is a long time.

Obviously everything is up in the air with Marquez's injury but assuming 100% or close to fix what does everyone else think of his chances of equalling or surpassing those and possible other records?

Given a complete recovery the answer is he will get whichever records he wants to get, except perhaps the most overall titles, and which probably won’t include being the oldest premier class titleist.

p4p1 · Mar 11, 2021

michaelm said:
Given a complete recovery the answer is he will get whichever records he wants to get, except perhaps the most overall titles, and which probably won’t include being the oldest premier class titleist.

I was surprised how gettable some of those records are for him. We don't know how he will go after 30 but there is no reason to believe that there is a significant drop off after 30 outside of injuries.

His records are already fairly impressive without getting bogged down in the BS ones some of his fans came up with to make another record. I was a bit surprised myself.

Youngest rider to win his first World Championship Title in the Premier Class (20 years, 266 days)
Youngest race winner in the Premier Class (20 years, 63 days)
Most Races won in a single season in the Premier Class: 13
Most Pole Positions in a year: 13
Most podium finishes in a single season in the Premier Class: 18 - longer season helps obvs
Highest points in a single season in the Premier Class: 420
Biggest title-winning margin by points: 151
Most Consecutive race wins in the Premier Class in 4 Stroke MotoGP (2002–) era: 10
Most Consecutive race wins in a single Premier Class season (1949–) era: 10 (Shared with Mick Doohan and Giacomo Agostini)
Most Pole Positions in the Premier Class: 62
Most Pole Positions in history of Grand Prix motorcycling ever: 90

Ago won something like 35 races in a row that he entered which no one will ever catch tbh.

Barbedwirebikerr · Mar 11, 2021

p4p1 said:
I was surprised how gettable some of those records are for him. We don't know how he will go after 30 but there is no reason to believe that there is a significant drop off after 30 outside of injuries.

His records are already fairly impressive without getting bogged down in the BS ones some of his fans came up with to make another record. I was a bit surprised myself.

Youngest rider to win his first World Championship Title in the Premier Class (20 years, 266 days)
Youngest race winner in the Premier Class (20 years, 63 days)
Most Races won in a single season in the Premier Class: 13
Most Pole Positions in a year: 13
Most podium finishes in a single season in the Premier Class: 18 - longer season helps obvs
Highest points in a single season in the Premier Class: 420
Biggest title-winning margin by points: 151
Most Consecutive race wins in the Premier Class in 4 Stroke MotoGP (2002–) era: 10
Most Consecutive race wins in a single Premier Class season (1949–) era: 10 (Shared with Mick Doohan and Giacomo Agostini)
Most Pole Positions in the Premier Class: 62
Most Pole Positions in history of Grand Prix motorcycling ever: 90

Ago won something like 35 races in a row that he entered which no one will ever catch tbh.

His record is astonishing. I e had a tipple tonight, will add more later as to my prediction. Great thread starter

JPSLotus · Mar 11, 2021

I feel Ago's records while on paper are quite impressive, are less impressive when you look closer at how they were achieved and what he was competing on for a bike versus what the rest of the field was competing on. He was a fantastic rider regardless, but if he hadn't had such a major equipment advantage, I don't feel he would have ever achieved the numbers he did. The closest modern day equivalent to equipment advantage along the lines of what Ago had I think might be the 2002 season with the introduction of the V5 Honda that only 2 riders had for most of the season till Barros and Kato (he got it a few races before Barros did) were allowed to have it for the last handful of races, against half a grid of 500cc bikes.

But as far as Marc goes, everything is contingent on his health. I think he can break most of the listed records except for the 15 world titles Not too sure about the most premier class wins either. There's an outside chance he could get there if healthy and able to ride at his normal level. Oldest world champion I really don't see happening. These guys start slowing down in their mid-30s, and for as great as Marc has been, he isn't going to be immune to that either assuming he is still racing by that point.

Realistically though, I'd like to see what happens when he does get back on a bike this year to see if any of the records are still attainable, or if he might not be at the level pre-injury. If he's not at pre-injury level ever again, he can still win titles if he has the right approach, but it's probably going to be a bit harder for him to get it done since he wouldn't be able to rely on raw talent to do it. He's going to have to become a bit more like an Alain Prost in his approach to racing, though he has shown he can take that approach, or at least was doing it more and more till Jerez last year when he had a lapse in judgment.

p4p1 · Mar 11, 2021

JPSLotus said:
I feel Ago's records while on paper are quite impressive, are less impressive when you look closer at how they were achieved and what he was competing on for a bike versus what the rest of the field was competing on. He was a fantastic rider regardless, but if he hadn't had such a major equipment advantage, I don't feel he would have ever achieved the numbers he did. The closest modern day equivalent to equipment advantage along the lines of what Ago had I think might be the 2002 season with the introduction of the V5 Honda that only 2 riders had for most of the season till Barros and Kato (he got it a few races before Barros did) were allowed to have it for the last handful of races, against half a grid of 500cc bikes.

Realistically though, I'd like to see what happens when he does get back on a bike this year to see if any of the records are still attainable, or if he might not be at the level pre-injury. If he's not at pre-injury level ever again, he can still win titles if he has the right approach, but it's probably going to be a bit harder for him to get it done since he wouldn't be able to rely on raw talent to do it. He's going to have to become a bit more like an Alain Prost in his approach to racing, though he has shown he can take that approach, or at least was doing it more and more till Jerez last year when he had a lapse in judgment.

Agree about Ago, for me his most impressive title is his one with Yamaha. Ago himself does say that he was lucky Hailwood decided to leave MV. I rate Rossi above Ago for the reasons you mentioned which are also the reasons I rate MM above Rossi.

Agree about Marc though, this year will be a massive factor in whether he can achieve those records or not.If he recaptures something close to his previous form this year and ends the year with 4+ wins even if he takes a few races to get back up to speed then I give him a very good chance of breaking the wins records. A big seasons, say this season (unlikely) or next season with 10 or so wins does drop the average wins per season required significantly enough that it becomes just a matter of time. for example most premier class wins he would need about over 4 wins for the next 8 seasons to get there but if he was to win 5 this year and 10 the following season then he would be just 18 wins away going into the season he turns 30. At which point you wouldn't bet against the guy making it 123 total wins.

A long time to go and a lot of unknowns due to injuries but I do love seeing records broken in sports.

michaelm · Mar 11, 2021

p4p1 said:
Agree about Ago, for me his most impressive title is his one with Yamaha. Ago himself does say that he was lucky Hailwood decided to leave MV. I rate Rossi above Ago for the reasons you mentioned which are also the reasons I rate MM above Rossi.

Agree about Marc though, this year will be a massive factor in whether he can achieve those records or not.If he recaptures something close to his previous form this year and ends the year with 4+ wins even if he takes a few races to get back up to speed then I give him a very good chance of breaking the wins records. A big seasons, say this season (unlikely) or next season with 10 or so wins does drop the average wins per season required significantly enough that it becomes just a matter of time. for example most premier class wins he would need about over 4 wins for the next 8 seasons to get there but if he was to win 5 this year and 10 the following season then he would be just 18 wins away going into the season he turns 30. At which point you wouldn't bet against the guy making it 123 total wins.

A long time to go and a lot of unknowns due to injuries but I do love seeing records broken in sports.

I agree, the 8th title on the Yamaha crowned Ago’s career, and Rossi decided he needed to win an 8th title to definitively prove his superiority over Ago as well.

He didn’t need the 8th title of course as you said, everyone with any knowledge of the sport already rated him ahead of Ago. Have to give him credit today though, near the the top of the timesheet on day 4 of testing at Qatar, particularly on long runs, at age 40 (EDIT just turned 42).

povol · Mar 12, 2021

michaelm said:
Given a complete recovery the answer is he will get whichever records he wants to get, except perhaps the most overall titles, and which probably won’t include being the oldest premier class titleist.

Up until last year, I thought it was inevitable that He would pass Rossi for wins and titles, especially after what he did in 19. With Lorenzo , Dovi, and Pedrosa gone and Rossi a shell of even what he was from 13-16, it appeared he was going to go on a run of 12-13 win seasons . Now I’m not so sure. He is battling his biggest foe of his career now, shoulder and limb injuries . Upper extremity injuries will end a bike racers career in a jiffy and he is racking those up quickly. Look at his last three off seasons, major reconstructive surgery on both shoulders and then the arm. That and the rehab will take their toll even on the most dedicated of athletes.. The poor kid hasn’t had an opportunity to enjoy a title since 2016. If he comes back full health, he needs to come to truths with himself. The crash to find the limit strategy must end. He can win title after title against this grid on consistency alone. He has enough BMW’s and with his skills starting anywhere in the top 4-5 is fine. Take the poles when you can get them, but don’t go crazy. Same in the races, take the 5-6 wins that are going to come your way because of track and the other riders inconsistency and win titles . Can he ride like that, who knows. His toughest competitor might just be himself.

Keshav · Mar 12, 2021

povol said:
Up until last year, I thought it was inevitable that He would pass Rossi for wins and titles, especially after what he did in 19. With Lorenzo , Dovi, and Pedrosa gone and Rossi a shell of even what he was from 13-16, it appeared he was going to go on a run of 12-13 win seasons . Now I’m not so sure. He is battling his biggest foe of his career now, shoulder and limb injuries . Upper extremity injuries will end a bike racers career in a jiffy and he is racking those up quickly. Look at his last three off seasons, major reconstructive surgery on both shoulders and then the arm. That and the rehab will take their toll even on the most dedicated of athletes.. The poor kid hasn’t had an opportunity to enjoy a title since 2016. If he comes back full health, he needs to come to truths with himself. The crash to find the limit strategy must end. He can win title after title against this grid on consistency alone. He has enough BMW’s and with his skills starting anywhere in the top 4-5 is fine. Take the poles when you can get them, but don’t go crazy. Same in the races, take the 5-6 wins that are going to come your way because of track and the other riders inconsistency and win titles . Can he ride like that, who knows. His toughest competitor might just be himself.

Good to know yer still around. That he should dial it down a notch and still win on consistency is what I've been saying since his 3rd season. He needs to save the hail Mary moves for the tracks that don't favor the Honda and/or for days when another competitor is extra inspired.

Like everybody, I'm looking forward to seeing him back in the race. What I am dreading is - seeing him needlessly overcook a turn and falling on that shoulder. He reminds me of when I was a kid, I lived and worked on a farm for a few years and we had this great dog that loved to hunt and he would catch whatever he went after. Unfortunately - he really loved to go after porcupines and we'd always have to hold him down on the porch and pull the quills out of his face with a pair of pliers, which made him howl and moan. It was painful to watch.

michaelm · Mar 12, 2021

Keshav said:
Good to know yer still around. That he should dial it down a notch and still win on consistency is what I've been saying since his 3rd season. He needs to save the hail Mary moves for the tracks that don't favor the Honda and/or for days when another competitor is extra inspired.

Like everybody, I'm looking forward to seeing him back in the race. What I am dreading is - seeing him needlessly overcook a turn and falling on that shoulder. He reminds me of when I was a kid, I lived and worked on a farm for a few years and we had this great dog that loved to hunt and he would catch whatever he went after. Unfortunately - he really loved to go after porcupines and we'd always have to hold him down on the porch and pull the quills out of his face with a pair of pliers, which made him howl and moan. It was painful to watch.

It goes without saying he will have to moderate his approach. A major shoulder injury and this fracture both came from pushing over the limit for no purpose other than attempting to intimidate FQ/show him who was the faster rider, one was in practice and another in a race in which he basically had gotten to the highest position possible for him to finish in the race, he wasn’t even in a position to put pressure on FQ. FQ didn’t prove to be quite the rider most of us thought he was in the remainder of the season even without MM competing against him.

I think he can basically pretty much the podium every race and take wins as they come without riding nearly as close to the limit as has been his previous habit.

michaelm · Mar 12, 2021

Keshav said:
Good to know yer still around. That he should dial it down a notch and still win on consistency is what I've been saying since his 3rd season. He needs to save the hail Mary moves for the tracks that don't favor the Honda and/or for days when another competitor is extra inspired.

Like everybody, I'm looking forward to seeing him back in the race. What I am dreading is - seeing him needlessly overcook a turn and falling on that shoulder. He reminds me of when I was a kid, I lived and worked on a farm for a few years and we had this great dog that loved to hunt and he would catch whatever he went after. Unfortunately - he really loved to go after porcupines and we'd always have to hold him down on the porch and pull the quills out of his face with a pair of pliers, which made him howl and moan. It was painful to watch.

Great to see you on the forum.

I am hoping for a Mick Doohan like return, Mick managed to keep it mostly upright for a 5 year run after taking a year to get back to near his peak, and he is likely the closest comparison to MM in terms of vicious competitiveness.

JPSLotus · Mar 12, 2021

Keshav said:
Good to know yer still around. That he should dial it down a notch and still win on consistency is what I've been saying since his 3rd season. He needs to save the hail Mary moves for the tracks that don't favor the Honda and/or for days when another competitor is extra inspired.

Like everybody, I'm looking forward to seeing him back in the race. What I am dreading is - seeing him needlessly overcook a turn and falling on that shoulder. He reminds me of when I was a kid, I lived and worked on a farm for a few years and we had this great dog that loved to hunt and he would catch whatever he went after. Unfortunately - he really loved to go after porcupines and we'd always have to hold him down on the porch and pull the quills out of his face with a pair of pliers, which made him howl and moan. It was painful to watch.

This is something that I hope does not happen, but I can very easily see Marc's career ending in a similar fashion to that of Doohan.

Keshav · Mar 12, 2021

michaelm said:
It goes without saying he will have to moderate his approach. A major shoulder injury and this fracture both came from pushing over the limit for no purpose other than attempting to intimidate FQ/show him who was the faster rider, one was in practice and another in a race in which he basically had gotten to the highest position possible for him to finish in the race, he wasn’t even in a position to put pressure on FQ. FQ didn’t prove to be quite the rider most of us thought he was in the remainder of the season even without MM competing against him.

I think he can basically pretty much the podium every race and take wins as they come without riding nearly as close to the limit as has been his previous habit.

To be fair, (if memory serves) Fabio last year, was on the latest spec frame. Correct me if I'm wrong. I think he would have been much more consistent with the frame from his previous season.

michaelm · Mar 12, 2021

Keshav said:
To be fair, (if memory serves) Fabio last year, was on the latest spec frame. Correct me if I'm wrong. I think he would have been much more consistent with the frame from his previous season.

Sure, true, but do you think MM would have been finishing out of the top 5 on some circuits on a bike capable of winning at others ?. Fair enough FQ not winning at circuits which did not suit the bike, but not down the lower end of the top 10.

Keshav · Mar 13, 2021

michaelm said:
Sure, true, but do you think MM would have been finishing out of the top 5 on some circuits on a bike capable of winning at others ?. Fair enough FQ not winning at circuits which did not suit the bike, but not down the lower end of the top 10.

It may turn out that Fabio is one of those guys for whom everything must be just so.

Bern1 · Mar 13, 2021

It’s kind of looking that way with Fabio. However, I am kind of wondering if some of his woes were due to Yamaha itself. Yamaha seemed really behind last year in several ways, engine issues, testing, frames, etc.

This year Fabs is on the “real” factory team, which can concentrate on the two young guns without the Rossi distraction.

The frame thing, this is going to be one of those issues where the riders have to provide useful feedback to the engineers and where the team has to make the right decision. Rossi wasn’t very good at it and it remains to be seen whether the two young guns will be any better. Too bad that they didn’t take advantage of Lorenzo’s talent in that area last year and it seems a crapshoot with their newest test rider choice.

This year is going to be make or break for both riders, team and Yamaha.

Keshav · Mar 13, 2021

Not the first (least I don't think so) or likely the last, to say so, but experience has shown that factories don't always listen to the riders. Fabio is on a long list of riders who have mourned the loss of a previous season's frame. I can't help thinking Yamaha could replicate the 2019 frame if they had the will to do so. Top execs are not known for humility and having to admit all the cash and R&D time funneled into developing a "new and improved" frame, would have to be galling, given as how the failure of a new design reflects directly on the department head.

Bern1 · Mar 13, 2021

Well, Honda is definitely known for that approach: we’ll build this thing and then see who can ride it.

Yamaha it seems, more of a “fine instrument” thing. More finesse than brute force. I would think they would want to make it work, as they are always on the back foot with regards to Honda power wise. Listening to Lorenzo used to work for them anyway.

But for something like that to work, there has to be accurate feedback, translating into the correct engineering choice and execution. Not easy. And, as pointed out, expensive.

Regarding people in the team who have sunk costs and ego in some project, if it ain’t winning, you ain’t going to be around for long in racing. Even if you’re the owner, and especially if you’re a decision making manager.

p4p1 · Mar 14, 2021

michaelm said:
Sure, true, but do you think MM would have been finishing out of the top 5 on some circuits on a bike capable of winning at others ?. Fair enough FQ not winning at circuits which did not suit the bike, but not down the lower end of the top 10.

It did seem to me last year that if you were on a Yamaha, and we exclude the possibility of it being the riders lack of consistency, for about half the season you were going to be golden and the other half well not so much. Franky came on good towards the end of the season while the newer Yams faltered. If it was the bike and not the riders then Fabio, Mav and Vale were going to struggle at the start of the season.

I still maintain that the Yamaha has been the most consistent bike for the past couple of years though. The bike seems to go well at most circuits while the riders seem to experience a roller coaster. I certainly don't think that Fabio or Mav would've done any better on the Suzuki last year and both would've likely failed hard on the Honda.

p4p1 · Mar 14, 2021

Keshav said:
It may turn out that Fabio is one of those guys for whom everything must be just so.

I would add to that, that from the evidence we have so far he doesn't deal with pressure and expectations so well. He should have been the #1 Yamaha last year, #2 at the worst. Instead the only Yamaha he beat was Rossi who had his worst ever year by bookending his two missed races with 4 dnf's.

He is still really young but in my experience it does seem in most sports, once a choker always a choker. Would be happy to be proved wrong. Now more than ever consistency is the key to a title as Mir showed last season. He can't have Maverick like tendencies and expect to win a championship. Now it seems that Yamaha may be stuck with 2 Mavs and I don't believe that is a good thing.

Search

Search

How do rate Marquez's chances at beating these records?

p4p1

michaelm

p4p1

Barbedwirebikerr

JPSLotus

p4p1

michaelm

povol

Keshav

michaelm

michaelm

JPSLotus

Keshav

michaelm

Keshav

Bern1

Keshav

Bern1

p4p1

p4p1

Similar threads

Recent Discussions