2021 Championship Thread

[p4p1]

After 3 rounds I think the main contenders have made themselves known along with one other man who will likely be battling for the title:
Fabio
Pecco
Vinales
Zarco
Mir
Rins
Morbidelli
M Marquez

I think we can all or do all agree those are the 8 guys who have a realistic challenge in store this year. The only other guy that you could put with those guys is Miller but he throws it down the road too much without winning enough to mount a serious title challenge IMO.

Of those 8 I would immediately rule out Rins and Vinales. Rins crashes too much to properly challenge and Vinales has shown consistent inconsistency over his entire career which make it unlikely he can mount a serious charge towards the title.

Of the remaining 6 both Zarco and Morbidelli are on satellite bikes. A big disadvantage obviously. But I’m not sure it’s enough to rule either guy out just yet. Franco was great towards the tail end of the season last year and finished 2nd in the championship IIRC. Ducati will throw all their weight behind Zarco if he looks like a genuine chance to take the title over their factory boys.

Pecco has looked very good so far IMO and if not for the yellow flag he could have been fighting Fabio for a win. I don’t think he can be counted out yet.

Fabio has looked great so far, his 5th in the first Qatar race could be a sign of his previous inconsistency rearing its head again or it could be a one off. Counting against Fabio is that he doesn’t deal with the pressure so well. He’s young and it could change but this season has started similarly to last season so it’s hard to know if there will be a change in him or not.

Mir has had a very Mir season so far. He’s there to pick up the pieces and it’s doubtful he will suddenly start dominating races all of a sudden.

Last but not least is Marquez. We’ve covered this a million times. Coming back from injury, looked ok first weekend back and if he regains form by midway he is a serious threat.

I think at this stage we have 6 guys who can fight for the title this year. What does everyone else think?

Slowly each week the 6 guys will be whittled down to one or two as always.

 

[Keshav]

I think what you think.

 

[JPSLotus]

I think last season's shortened schedule played into the hands of a rider like Mir who generally was never the outright fastest rider on any given weekend, but rode for the points and relied on the presumptive favorites to take themselves out of contention. With the season being of it's regular length this year, and the circus not visiting tracks at abnormal times during the year, this plays into the hands of the more established teams like Yamaha. As I suspected, they looked far better at Portimao with the race being run in April rather than later in the year like last season. I think they should do well again at Jerez, so that has the ability to really put them in the driver's seat.

Marquez is the big question mark. It's really going to come down to how long does it take him to have more muscle and strength built up in that right arm of his? Jerez is going to be another challenging circuit for him because you've got some heavy right-handed corners in the 4th sector before the final corner, and also the start of the lap has right-handers similar to that of Portimao. So his endurance is probably going to find itself challenged once again.

Miller, Rins, Morbidelli, Mir, Zarco, I don't see mounting a serious title challenge. I think Zarco of that group can hang around up near the top of the points table as long as he stays on the bike and finishes races, but to win a title, he is going to have to breakthrough and get a pair of wins or more.

Vinales is an X factor as usual. If he find any type of consistency, he could mount a major title challenge, however, since 2017, he has never shown sustained consistency, so I find it doubtful he is going to be able to do that for a full season, or at least as long as is needed to secure a championship.

Bagnaia might be a good dark horse because of all the Ducati riders, he seems capable of turning a not so great situation into a good one as he did this past weekend. Time will tell on him.

Fabio has the goods, but does he have the mental strength to hold up if he starts feeling pressure. He's getting good result right now, but he needs to keep that going, and if he finds himself in the midst of a bad weekend, he needs to be able to come back at the next one stronger.

 

[Hollywood]

I think its going to come down to Bagnaia and Fabio. Two very different performing bikes, the Yamaha is strong in the corners, while the Ducati has a horsepower advantage in the straights. However I think Ducati has made better improvements in their bike's cornering ability, compared to Yamaha's improvements in hp. So at this point I think I am going to pick Bagnaia.

 

[Bern1]

P4p’s analysis holds up generally in my view.

The interesting thing is going to be watching the intersection of the career of a known all time great (MM), against all the younger up and coming riders.

At some point in time, whether that will be this season or a future one, they will cross.

 

[Hollywood]

MM will become a factor in the championship some how, because he is always a podium threat. However I do not think Honda has a very good bike at the moment, so he may struggle with qualifying, though he can make up for it during the race with his craft.

 

[p4p1]

MM will become a factor in the championship some how, because he is always a podium threat. However I do not think Honda has a very good bike at the moment, so he may struggle with qualifying, though he can make up for it during the race with his craft.

I don’t disagree but the bike isn’t any worse than it has been previously either. Marquez has just made it look much better than it is. Top Honda this weekend despite the bike being ridden by two moto2 world champions.

 

[Hollywood]

I don’t disagree but the bike isn’t any worse than it has been previously either. Marquez has just made it look much better than it is. Top Honda this weekend despite the bike being ridden by two moto2 world champions.

In prototype racing if you do not improve your machine then you fall behind all those other manufactures that do. In Honda's case they may have not improved their bike but they may have just fallen behind Aprilia in the pecking order of MotoGP machinery.