Déjà Vu?
Tom Sykes - Haven't we been here before? Last race weekend of the season and the title is still up for grabs. A lone, lime green Kawasaki fighting to hold off a hard charging red and black Aprilia? The fate of the universe hanging in the balance? Well, maybe not that last one but certainly all of the rest. Fortunately for racing fans the adage of "history is wont to repeat itself" holds true and for another season the fight for the trophy comes down to this final hour. Not fortunate for Tom Sykes, but fortunate for us.
What is fortunate for Tom Sykes is that he has several things going for him for the past couple of seasons:
1. Jerez is a new track for WSBK, which means that everyone gets to start at base zero in determining setup.
2. We've had several examples of just how good Tom is in adapting to new tracks already - Laguna Seca, Istanbul, Moscow. Tom's a fast learner, and has consistenly hung back in practice while learning the track before decimating the field in qualifying and on race day.
3. He doesn't have to win! Having pushed himself to a comfortable 37 point advantage over Laverty he only needs to salvage a few points per-race to clinch the championship.
4. He usually wins! Despite a slow start he has racked up an impressive number of top step honors this season, including several doubles.
Prediction - Tom will charge hard in race 1, but will be unable to get away from the hard charging factory Aprilias who are fighting for both a ride next year (Laverty) and the championship (Laverty/Guintoli). He'll battle long enough for the lead riders to open a gap to the second group then, probably after a scare from riders with much less to lose, will play it safe to clinch the title - possibly off podium. Race 2 will see the return of the Red Helmet. Having secured the first Kawasaki championship for... a long time and earning himself a nice bonus Tom will ride hard, bang fairings if necessary, and end the season on the top step. 9 months later he will celebrate the win with the birth of another child. That last is predicated on his wife not being one of the many expecting in the paddock at the moment. Having abandoned the Eurofeed for beIn I don't get that commentary any more.
Sylvain Guintoli - When the 2012 season ended who would have thought that Sylvain Guintoli would end up here? Or when the 2013 season started for that matter! 2012 ended with Guintoli almost rideless, but then opened 2013 with a double podium, a win and a seat at the head of the championship table. Yet as announcer Jonathan Green is wont to say, "having done all the donkey work at the front" by leading the championship for most of the season Guintoli finds himself in the final round in third place, one point behind his teammate and 38 points adrift from current leader Sykes. Blame it on the ill-timed (is there any other kind?) injury that he sustained that seemingly derailed his title hopes, blame it on the ill-times (again, any other kind?) red flags that have plagued the season, on more than one occasion derailing a good result for the French rider, blame it on the rain that was slowly falling. Any way you slice it though, Guintoli has work to do this weekend if he wants to keep a shot a winning the championship.
Fortunately for race fans, and for Guintoli too, he's got a few things going for him when the lights go out:
1. He seems to be healing up. He has looked stronger on race day at Laguna Seca and Magny Cours than he has for much of the season. Sure he didn't win at his home track, but with that being the Kawasaki test track it was a pretty tough ask.
2. He is a scrapper. He has taken a bit of criticism this season as his championship hopes (and lead) slipped well past that he didn't seem capable of a good scrap on track. At Laguna, and definitely at Magny Cours he put that to rest with a near double DNF as he fought with Laverty on an increasingly wet track.
3. He's still got a ride! Win or lose in 2013, Guintoli's position on the team in 2014 is solid. Not having that kind of pressure leaves him free to focus on putting as much distance between himself and Sykes as possible (preferably with the Englishman somewhere behind).
Prediction - A game Guintoli will exploit the legendary aerodynamics of the Aprilia to try a block pass into turn 1 to secure the hole shot. He will mix it up with Sykes, Melandri and Laverty early in the race before seemingly fading just a little at the one third mark. After resting for the middle third he will experience a resurgence after preserving his tires to fight for the checkered in race 1. For race 2 he will go for broke but still keep something in the bag. The last 5 laps will see the most aggressive Guintoli we have seen this season.
Eugene Laverty - It has been a long and hard road for Laverty with Aprilia Racing in WSBK. When the Irish star joined the team he was paired with none other than Max Biaggi, the man around whom the RSV4 had been designed and built. With Max around the bike worked better for no-one else. Then, with Max retired and Eugene as the de-facto lead rider there was all of the expectation for him to step up and retain the rider's and manufacturer's crown for the Italian factory. The season certainly started will enough, with Eugene securing a win and podium at the season opener to slot into 2nd place in the championship just behind his teammate. Unfortunately that was the highpoint of his championship for most of the season. It wasn't that Laverty was slow - throughout 2013 he still racked up wins (more than Laverty in fact) and podiums. The problem was his often cited inconsistency. A string of mechanical failures combined with a couple of expected rider errors saw Laverty languish away from top of the championship standings for the first 3 quarters.
Still, they aren't called the "Fighting Irish" for nothing and Laverty recovered well. Now sitting in 2nd place for the championship Laverty has a very real chance to clinch the championship for Aprilia and derail the Tom Sykes party train. As for what he'll need to do it:
1. Laverty is without a doubt the man for whom the Aprilia works best this season. Maybe it's because of his apprenticeship under Biaggi. Maybe it's because he's had an extra year to learn its intricacies. It could even be because he's being groomed for a spot with Aprilia in GP so has extra support. Whatever the case, when his bike works it works very well.
2. That Irish temper means that Laverty's not afraid of a bit of a scrap. Maybe he's really a ginger, but Laverty will trade paint if push comes to shove. As strong as both Sykes and Guintoli have been lately, having a bit of mongrel (thanks again to Green for the phrase) might be just the thing to interrupt their rhythm and put himself ahead.
3. Laverty is the only one of the top 3 (possibly even 4!) riders not officially signed for 2014. While he's been linked to Aprilia in the GP class aboard the next generation ART, nothing is official and until the ink has wet the paper everything remains speculation (for reference see: Nicky Hayden, Aspar, Aprilia and Gigi Dal'Igna).
Prediction: Laverty has a point to prove this weekend, and he'll be out to make a statement. He's not a dirty racer, so don't look for him to punt anyone off track. However he knows how to race hard and black passes may come into play a bit more this time out. He'll scrap for every inch of pavement available and will wring the neck of the RSV4 for every horse he can eke out of the package. After an absolute war for the first race he'll come out ahead to clinch the win. There may be tears under the helmet. Race two will see him try to pull the same trick but run into the red and block roadblock of Guintoli. Trying to prove that he is better rider, both Aprilia riders become embroiled in a race long battle that allows Sykes to slip by and take the checkered flag. Laverty moves on to MotoGP and becomes Aprilia's star rider on a highly competitive ART mkII for 2014 where he clinches a surprise title for the "other" Italian brand.
Tom Sykes - Haven't we been here before? Last race weekend of the season and the title is still up for grabs. A lone, lime green Kawasaki fighting to hold off a hard charging red and black Aprilia? The fate of the universe hanging in the balance? Well, maybe not that last one but certainly all of the rest. Fortunately for racing fans the adage of "history is wont to repeat itself" holds true and for another season the fight for the trophy comes down to this final hour. Not fortunate for Tom Sykes, but fortunate for us.
What is fortunate for Tom Sykes is that he has several things going for him for the past couple of seasons:
1. Jerez is a new track for WSBK, which means that everyone gets to start at base zero in determining setup.
2. We've had several examples of just how good Tom is in adapting to new tracks already - Laguna Seca, Istanbul, Moscow. Tom's a fast learner, and has consistenly hung back in practice while learning the track before decimating the field in qualifying and on race day.
3. He doesn't have to win! Having pushed himself to a comfortable 37 point advantage over Laverty he only needs to salvage a few points per-race to clinch the championship.
4. He usually wins! Despite a slow start he has racked up an impressive number of top step honors this season, including several doubles.
Prediction - Tom will charge hard in race 1, but will be unable to get away from the hard charging factory Aprilias who are fighting for both a ride next year (Laverty) and the championship (Laverty/Guintoli). He'll battle long enough for the lead riders to open a gap to the second group then, probably after a scare from riders with much less to lose, will play it safe to clinch the title - possibly off podium. Race 2 will see the return of the Red Helmet. Having secured the first Kawasaki championship for... a long time and earning himself a nice bonus Tom will ride hard, bang fairings if necessary, and end the season on the top step. 9 months later he will celebrate the win with the birth of another child. That last is predicated on his wife not being one of the many expecting in the paddock at the moment. Having abandoned the Eurofeed for beIn I don't get that commentary any more.
Sylvain Guintoli - When the 2012 season ended who would have thought that Sylvain Guintoli would end up here? Or when the 2013 season started for that matter! 2012 ended with Guintoli almost rideless, but then opened 2013 with a double podium, a win and a seat at the head of the championship table. Yet as announcer Jonathan Green is wont to say, "having done all the donkey work at the front" by leading the championship for most of the season Guintoli finds himself in the final round in third place, one point behind his teammate and 38 points adrift from current leader Sykes. Blame it on the ill-timed (is there any other kind?) injury that he sustained that seemingly derailed his title hopes, blame it on the ill-times (again, any other kind?) red flags that have plagued the season, on more than one occasion derailing a good result for the French rider, blame it on the rain that was slowly falling. Any way you slice it though, Guintoli has work to do this weekend if he wants to keep a shot a winning the championship.
Fortunately for race fans, and for Guintoli too, he's got a few things going for him when the lights go out:
1. He seems to be healing up. He has looked stronger on race day at Laguna Seca and Magny Cours than he has for much of the season. Sure he didn't win at his home track, but with that being the Kawasaki test track it was a pretty tough ask.
2. He is a scrapper. He has taken a bit of criticism this season as his championship hopes (and lead) slipped well past that he didn't seem capable of a good scrap on track. At Laguna, and definitely at Magny Cours he put that to rest with a near double DNF as he fought with Laverty on an increasingly wet track.
3. He's still got a ride! Win or lose in 2013, Guintoli's position on the team in 2014 is solid. Not having that kind of pressure leaves him free to focus on putting as much distance between himself and Sykes as possible (preferably with the Englishman somewhere behind).
Prediction - A game Guintoli will exploit the legendary aerodynamics of the Aprilia to try a block pass into turn 1 to secure the hole shot. He will mix it up with Sykes, Melandri and Laverty early in the race before seemingly fading just a little at the one third mark. After resting for the middle third he will experience a resurgence after preserving his tires to fight for the checkered in race 1. For race 2 he will go for broke but still keep something in the bag. The last 5 laps will see the most aggressive Guintoli we have seen this season.
Eugene Laverty - It has been a long and hard road for Laverty with Aprilia Racing in WSBK. When the Irish star joined the team he was paired with none other than Max Biaggi, the man around whom the RSV4 had been designed and built. With Max around the bike worked better for no-one else. Then, with Max retired and Eugene as the de-facto lead rider there was all of the expectation for him to step up and retain the rider's and manufacturer's crown for the Italian factory. The season certainly started will enough, with Eugene securing a win and podium at the season opener to slot into 2nd place in the championship just behind his teammate. Unfortunately that was the highpoint of his championship for most of the season. It wasn't that Laverty was slow - throughout 2013 he still racked up wins (more than Laverty in fact) and podiums. The problem was his often cited inconsistency. A string of mechanical failures combined with a couple of expected rider errors saw Laverty languish away from top of the championship standings for the first 3 quarters.
Still, they aren't called the "Fighting Irish" for nothing and Laverty recovered well. Now sitting in 2nd place for the championship Laverty has a very real chance to clinch the championship for Aprilia and derail the Tom Sykes party train. As for what he'll need to do it:
1. Laverty is without a doubt the man for whom the Aprilia works best this season. Maybe it's because of his apprenticeship under Biaggi. Maybe it's because he's had an extra year to learn its intricacies. It could even be because he's being groomed for a spot with Aprilia in GP so has extra support. Whatever the case, when his bike works it works very well.
2. That Irish temper means that Laverty's not afraid of a bit of a scrap. Maybe he's really a ginger, but Laverty will trade paint if push comes to shove. As strong as both Sykes and Guintoli have been lately, having a bit of mongrel (thanks again to Green for the phrase) might be just the thing to interrupt their rhythm and put himself ahead.
3. Laverty is the only one of the top 3 (possibly even 4!) riders not officially signed for 2014. While he's been linked to Aprilia in the GP class aboard the next generation ART, nothing is official and until the ink has wet the paper everything remains speculation (for reference see: Nicky Hayden, Aspar, Aprilia and Gigi Dal'Igna).
Prediction: Laverty has a point to prove this weekend, and he'll be out to make a statement. He's not a dirty racer, so don't look for him to punt anyone off track. However he knows how to race hard and black passes may come into play a bit more this time out. He'll scrap for every inch of pavement available and will wring the neck of the RSV4 for every horse he can eke out of the package. After an absolute war for the first race he'll come out ahead to clinch the win. There may be tears under the helmet. Race two will see him try to pull the same trick but run into the red and block roadblock of Guintoli. Trying to prove that he is better rider, both Aprilia riders become embroiled in a race long battle that allows Sykes to slip by and take the checkered flag. Laverty moves on to MotoGP and becomes Aprilia's star rider on a highly competitive ART mkII for 2014 where he clinches a surprise title for the "other" Italian brand.
