Which current GP rider...

Who do you think are the three riders in GP least likely to have success in 2007? Who would you replace them with from the field of 250s?

My opinion:

Sylvain Guintoli—I would replace him with Andrea Dovizio
Alex Hofmann—I would replace with Jorge Lorenzo
Olivier Jacque—I would replace with Hiroshi Aoyama

What’s yours?

Carlos Checa - Replaced with Ant West
Alex Barros - Replaced with De Angelis

What do you mean by least likely to have success?
Podiums, race wins, fastest laps, or to be near the back throughout the year?
Someone has to finish last you know and better to be last in motogp than first in any other form of motorcycle racing in my book.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (rgvneil @ Jan 6 2007, 06:26 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>What do you mean by least likely to have success?
Podiums, race wins, fastest laps, or to be near the back throughout the year?
Someone has to finish last you know and better to be last in motogp than first in any other form of motorcycle racing in my book.

Hi rgvneil, I was thinking a combination of back markers, least points scored, poor performances, etc...like you said, "near the back". And yes, you are right, "someone has to finish last."

But here is what I'm getting at: Of those running near the back, are there riders in 250s that would perform better? In other words, you suggest that being last in GP is better than "any other form of motorcycle racing", I'm trying to see if anybody thinks if these back runners are the best or can they be replaced by anybody that would be better? (I realize this is all speculation, but that's what most of do in the off season anyway, and it makes for some fun dialog).

So what do you think, who do you think are going to be the riders consistently running in the back, and do you think someone currently running in 250s could out perform them and possibly do better?

It's a good question to pose, in particular who from 250 will join the 800 class. The thing is, all these guys, with a few exceptions, are pretty talented. The guys who finish last can attribute a lot of their problems to a combination of inferior machinery, second rate tyres and a general lack of funds. It used to be the case say, 20 even 10 years ago that a star rider could still feature on a sub stantard bike, but that is'nt and wont ever be tha case again. Technology is playing such a huge part. If OJ does nothing on the kawasaki this year and you put Aoyama on the same bike in 2008, I can't see him blowing your socks off. But if the kawasaki is any good at all, I bet you OJ will make good use of it. Whatever bikes that consistently finish in the bottom three never have a line of guys wanting to sign up come contract time anyway so those bikes will rarely have a top rider on them. It's unlikely in my view that you'd ever see Aoyama on the kwak anyway though I agree 100% with Aoyama, Lorenzo and Dovizioso for the change to 800's. Who on a Honda or Yamaha has a contract running out at the end of this year? Anyone?

I think this questions a tricky one, because being at the back to me does not have to mean the rider is massively underachieving, for example they may be young and gaining experience or they may be on poor machinary.

Based on the performances we have seen in the past, i think the riders most likely to underperform and who i feel should be replaced with more promising riders for the future are;

Colin edwards - How many chances is this guy gonna get, hes been around long enough to do better than this, if he doesnt win a race in 07 i think he should leave.

Olivier Jaque - I was very disapointed to see him get this ride and i would expect poor results. Kawasaki need to team experience with the young randy de puniet while he learns, but a shortage of good, available riders left them with limited options.

Makoto Tamada - Seems to just be filling up seats and grid slots for nothing, but everyone knows he can be super fast. With any luck the fresh start in 07 will bring his confidence back, if not he can go and win win on superbikes like other gp rejects.

As for the 250 riders that could replace these guys i think after this 07 season we will see a few ont heir way up. Obvious answers are Hiroshi Aoyama and Alex de Angelis, both looking like they could be seriously fast, but maybe not ready just yet. Alternatively, doviziozo looks ready but i dont believe he is actually fast enough, he has a lot to preove next year. Lorenzo needs more time to mature, hje is still young, but soon he will be in the top class and hes gonna be good. What about Babera????

Couldn't agree with Skid more. The consistent bottom riders are generally there because of equipment or the team. I'm not saying anyone could win a World Championship with a factory ride but as Skid said, the technology helps those in the upper eschelon of racing and holds back the lesser funded teams. That being said I feel that it's irrelevant who rides for Tech 3 or d'Antin as they will always be near the bottom. I think the three guys that I would have to boot (not happily by the way) would be Edwards, Nakano and Elias. I am a fan of all three riders but all three have had opportunities on respectable packages and haven't done too much.

I'd like to see Ant West, Jorge Lorenzo and Alex de Angelis. West replacing Edwards at the factory Yamaha squad, Lorenzo replacing Nakano at Konica Minolta Honda and de Angelis at Gresini Honda.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Ooost @ Jan 9 2007, 03:21 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>replacing Nakano at Konica Minolta Honda
wow... oostin i think that i'd want to see how nakano does on a honda 1st before bumpin him out. alot of people rate him but his record is less than impressive. let's see if super shinya has been held back by inferior machinery. i thought u liked nakers

I'd second that. Nakano showed a few good results on the M1 in it's early stages of development. He's got the talent and the temperament to race at the front. He could rock a few boats on a Honda. Edwards has earned his respect at Yamaha for backing Rossi when it counted though I'd like to see a hungrier guy on the second yam. Elias may yet come good.

Like I said, I'm a fan of all three riders but their results have been lackluster IMO. I know it's a bit early to dismiss Nakano but looking through the competitive rides available, he has the worst track record of anyone holding one of those seats. Hopefully he can come good on the Honda, I'm really hoping he can because I'm a fan. Maybe it would be better to sack Checa at LCR Honda.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Racejumkie @ Jan 5 2007, 09:41 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Sylvain Guintoli—I would replace him with Andrea Dovizio
Alex Hofmann—I would replace with Jorge Lorenzo
Olivier Jacque—I would replace with Hiroshi Aoyama

No for the first two.. Andrea is a Honda boy and if Humangest team is doing well, we may see a Humangest Honda MGP team... just like the LCR Honda for Stoner.

Lorenzo is a superb rider.. and the trend is that with very good Spanish backing... he will do most likely reappear on the Honda Fortuna (not to be mistaken for the 2006 Fortuna Honda Gresini).. b/c 1) Fortuna broke ties with Yamaha.. 2) Fortuna pulled resources away from Toni Elias to focus on Lorenzo... We may see a Fortuna Ducati.. or he may jump ship and ride for Repsol.. in 09

I see this as a likely case IF KTM doesn't open a 800cc project and if he has good results for KTM in 2007.. He may go to Yamaha too.. since his ties with Honda is broken, I only see him going back to Honda after 3/4 years later.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (antfan @ Jan 6 2007, 05:19 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Carlos Checa - Replaced with Ant West
Alex Barros - Replaced with De Angelis

The sad thing about Anthony West is that he doesn't seem to have many people backing him.. I heard that he complains too much.. but his interviews seem okay to me.. I think Carlos has two more good years ahead... so does Alex Barros..

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Tom @ Jan 6 2007, 03:59 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>I think this questions a tricky one, because being at the back to me does not have to mean the rider is massively underachieving, for example they may be young and gaining experience or they may be on poor machinary.

Based on the performances we have seen in the past, i think the riders most likely to underperform and who i feel should be replaced with more promising riders for the future are;

Exactly the response I was looking for; insightful. Thanks for taking the time to respond with substance (along with a everybody else on this thread). I guess I was just looking for some thought about this tricky juxtaposition.


I thought about Edwards also, but being an American, I just wanted to give him one more chance. But I agree with you, he is underperforming. Interestingly enough, he was quoted saying in 05 before the Laguna Seca race, that Hayden had enough of a package to score some wins and suggested that perhaps it was time for Honda to move on to another rider. (see the DVD:The Doctor, The Tornado, and the Kentucky Kid). But I think it was his “writing on the wall” (means to forecast a doom) that this would be the case for him. I don’t particularly like the guy, but he was pretty fast here in the US and in WSBK (he strung together a series of consecutive wins and dominated on the Honda). But in GP he had a pretty good package (better than KRJR) which therefore I think he should have come higher in points. Edwards has had more time in international racing than Hayden as well.

On another note, can anybody tell me why the Frenchman Sylvain Guintoli deserves a GP ride?


<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Ooost @ Jan 8 2007, 11:21 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>I feel that it's irrelevant who rides for Tech 3 or d'Antin as they will always be near the bottom.


I think the three guys that I would have to boot (not happily by the way) would be Edwards, Nakano and Elias.

Interesting. Why do you suppose these "non-factory" teams race?

Also, agree with you on Edwards. (not so sure about Nakano, don't know much about him).

But Elias? Why? He is young. He proved he can win. Of all the guys that diced it up this year with Rossi for the line, did you know he was the only guy to have won that battle? Check it out, go back and review race by race. He earned much respect and admiration from me for that performance alone, and I think on that account he deserves a few more years. (just my humble opinion).

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Racejumkie @ Jan 9 2007, 08:37 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Interesting. Why do you suppose these "non-factory" teams race?

Also, agree with you on Edwards. (not so sure about Nakano, don't know much about him).

But Elias? Why? He is young. He proved he can win. Of all the guys that diced it up this year with Rossi for the line, did you know he was the only guy to have won that battle? Check it out, go back and review race by race. He earned much respect and admiration from me for that performance alone, and I think on that account he deserves a few more years. (just my humble opinion).
The only reason I can come up with for the bottom feeding teams racing is a passion for it. They get no help from the factory, older equipment, little to no tire support and little to no sponsorship money. There isn't much incentive for a guy like Luis d'Antin to run a team other than the fact that he loves racing.

I feel bad for saying it about Edwards because I think he is a real class guy but he just hasn't showed me much in MotoGP. I hope he proves me wrong.

I agree that Elias showed a lot of potential and improvement in 2006, especially in Estoril. But if you look at his results they were consistenly inconsistent. I think he might be a case of somebody who is blindingly fast on his day but his days don't come around that often.

This is all hypothetical though, it's far too early to sack Elias just yet.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Ooost @ Jan 9 2007, 01:08 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>The only reason I can come up with for the bottom feeding teams racing is a passion for it. They get no help from the factory, older equipment, little to no tire support and little to no sponsorship money. There isn't much incentive for a guy like Luis d'Antin to run a team other than the fact that he loves racing.

Wow. So really its a three or four horse race then. I wonder how good Rossi would appear on an inferior bike then. (No, I'm not trying to start a fight, but just making a point, I'm only using Rossi because it is generally accepted that he is the benchmark to beat). In other words, the top Yamaha & Honda (& last year top Ducati) are really the only realistic contenders then? (I purposefully omitted Suzuki & Kawasaki, because their performances seem equivalent to these "non-factory" teams.) So we can safely bet that the champ will come from one of these brands then, right? Hum, correct me if I'm wrong, but it sure seems to me that its about 4 guys trying to win the championship with a bunch of other guys as fodder/filler.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Racejumkie @ Jan 9 2007, 06:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>So really its a three or four horse race then.
i'd say more like a 9 horse race. 11 if suzuki come thru with a competetive bike. 12 if the d'antin ducati barros will ride is at least the same as the factory boy's & at the start should be. hell even checa might surprise which would make it 13. we start with a clean slate this year.

Fact.. Yamaha has only one winner in the new M1... that is Rossi.. Honda have multiple winners and just recently Ducati had proven that someone else other than Loris can win on the machinery..

This brings the case about Edwards.. After reading many books about the current Yamaha setup, the factory is only interested in helping Vale.. Of course, if Vale has a good year e.g. 2005, Edwards was very close to the top (P4).. However, 2006 was a bad year for Vale so Edwards didn't perform well.. There were even some races where Yamaha brought in new parts that Colin didn't test but he ran the race with new parts and with Vale's setup and still scored points! Furthermore, towards the end of the year, namely Portugal, we saw how much fight Edwards had in him with comparable bike to Rossi... so if Yamaha brings out a good package next year, namely if Vale will win races from the start of the season... we can expect good things from Colin.

On the other hand, Elias' performance in Portugal was quite impressive but the truth is he is no where near the talent of Pedrosa... in fact, I rate him almost as equal as De Puniet. In the 250.. Elias constantly lost to Pedrosa and always blamed Dani's weight... although this is true, a true fighter like Rossi will not use such a lame excuse.. If you put De Puniet on Honda machinery.. I bet we can see good performance from him that equals to Elias' results.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (frosty58 @ Jan 9 2007, 05:18 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>i'd say more like a 9 horse race. 11 if suzuki come thru with a competetive bike. 12 if the d'antin ducati barros will ride is at least the same as the factory boy's & at the start should be. hell even checa might surprise which would make it 13. we start with a clean slate this year.

I read that Suzuki and Kawasaki are considering customer engines to potential teams in the future... this is good for the manufacturer as they can receive additional feedback from the feeder teams that allow better development in the future..

Personally, I think Suzuki has a better shot in offering customer engines.. perhaps using Michelin tyres... Kawasaki is in a mess right now, so they will still concentrate on the factory team

Jumkie, the teams that I feel can contend for race wins are Repsol Honda, Yamaha, Ducati Marlboro, Gresini Honda, LCR Honda, Konica Minolta Honda and Rizla Suzuki. Kawasaki is in disarray, Ilmor is still young and d'Antin Ducati and Tech 3 Yamaha don't have the funds or support to compete with the rest.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Racejumkie @ Jan 10 2007, 06:37 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>On another note, can anybody tell me why the Frenchman Sylvain Guintoli deserves a GP ride?

Tech3 is a French team, and Gilloutine is cheap to boot.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Racejumkie @ Jan 10 2007, 06:37 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>all the guys that diced it up this year with Rossi for the line, did you know he was the only guy to have won that battle? Check it out, go back and review race by race. He earned much respect and admiration from me for that performance alone, and I think on that account he deserves a few more years. (just my humble opinion).

Gee, Jumkie, that wouldn't be because Elias winning that race cost Rossi 5 points that would have seen him take the championship from Hayden, would it?

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (richo @ Jan 9 2007, 06:00 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Gee, Jumkie, that wouldn't be because Elias winning that race cost Rossi 5 points that would have seen him take the championship from Hayden, would it?

I've been waiting for somebody to bring that up. Actually, those five points would have been big had Rossi not dumped his bike in Valencia. But even had he not crashed, all Hayden had to do was run P1 with somebody runing P2 (more than likely it would have been a Ducati) for him to have won the title. Which I contend is what exactly was gonna happen anyway. But the record indicates that Rossi did dump his bike. However, if you recall that race, Hayden was in complete control of the position he wished. Check out the entire race again and you'll see I have a point. Moments before Rossi went down, Hayden was in position to take the lead, on top of that he was the fastest man on the track (see the red indicator next to his name on that lap). Just then his board notified him of Rossi's crash. At that moment he allowed Bayliss to scurry along in P1. When it became apparent that Rossi had gotten back up and was running P14, Hayden had allowed Loris passed; but quickly came back up on his rear wheel in case Rossi moved up positions he would overtake P2. Check the tape; Hayden was moving positions at will. At that time his board calculated that P3 would be ok because Rossi was running P13 (and if you remember, P12 was way beyond his grasp since P12 was running several minutes in front with only a handfull of laps to go). Now I know you LOVE your boy Bayliss (and so do I) but I believe Hayden could have overtaken at will. As he said in a post race interview, he was gonna win or crash trying, but he didn't have to since Rossi crashed out. So those five points, are irrelevant. It would not have been decided by those five points even though at the end of the points total, the difference was five points, that is not what was in play on the track at the Valencia race.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Racejumkie @ Jan 10 2007, 08:38 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>I've been waiting for somebody to bring that up.
It would not have been decided by those five points even though at the end of the points total, the difference was five points, that is not what was in play on the track at the Valencia race.
Nicky did seem to be in control at Valencia jumkie, but you have to admit on reflection and all things considered, those 5 points 'were' crucial, and the circumstance so bizarre, if you were a religious man you blame it on the hand of God. Is Nicky a religious man?

Christ, maybe there is a God,....I'm really really sorry,....for everything!