Time to go ?

Kropotkin said:

Simoncelli would still crash on the first lap.

Click to expand...

hahaha.



I like your match ups Krops. Good stuff. Hey, why don't we put them on a Suzuki GP or Ducati GPs? I'd say as of this year, Ducati is only now accepted as a liability (though some of us have been saying it for several years). ...., Burgess and Rossi themselves accused Stoner of not pushing it, remember? I don't recall too many journalist calling them out. Why? Gotta wonder what they know, eh? Impressions from a distance, they are quite the mothafukers, eh???



As you say, there is only one hard bike, interestingly, only now that Rossi is struggling are people admitting it. Ok, this is a fun exercise. My match up (yes, from my limited viewpoint): think back to testing for a moment, remember the trading of top spots by the Hondas (including Hiroshi minus Toni). What an impression, right? I'd say its left an impression, but come race, Hiroshi was dropped from the works package, and what happened, suddenly he really looked like a mid packer. Correct me if I'm wrong, but did not Simo and Hiro trade while in the intermediate class? Last year Simo & Hiro didn't look that different on occasion either, until injuries set in. What changed? Dovi beating Rdp "every time?" Rdp & Dovi, I'd say, Dovi being the better rider, still they are fairly matched, the Honda giving us all the impression that Dovi is in fact a top 5 rider, while no such impression afforded to Rdp. Alvaro and Edwards, close to even, though again, the false impression that Edward is better than Alvaro because the impression ingrained coming from contrasting packages. Interesting you say 250 Ninjas, so its safe to assume Edwards would have beat Alvaro in the intermediate GP class? Doubt it.



Lets imagine the reverse, as you assigned the "grid fillers to the better rider's packages. How about we put Dovi on Randy's bike together, like teammates. Dovi pushing the Duc beyond its limits like Randy, doubt it. Sure Randy crashes a grip, but why? Dovi strikes me a guy like KRjr, that is, will ride the bike to the bike's safe zone capability, where as Randy had no problem going over it. As teammates on a Duc, advantage Rdp. Now lets put Edwards on Alvaro's bike; push. Lets put Pedro on Karel's bike, advantage Karel (and he doesn't even belong in MotoGP <hehe>) Now let put Dovi and Alvaro on Alvaro's bike. Close to push, very slight advantage Dovi, right? Lets put Pedro on Alvaro's bike, advantage Pedro, but certainly no wins against the Hondas or the Yamahas of the world, right? In fact, lets put Lorenzo, Pedro, Spies, Simo, Dovi, on Alvaro's bike, do any win a title? Doubt it. That's where this idea of "alien" come from, do you see it??? Lets put the "aliens" on Suzuki's and Ducati, and lets move the "grid fillers" to today's factory Hondas and Yamahas, what do you suppose would happen? Which current supposed "alien" riding on the "mid pack PACKAGE" consistently beats the "mid-packers" on the better machines? I doubt any. Why? Let me answer it, because the designation of ALIEN is to give the false impression that these rider far and away a category above, but in reality, shift the packages, and we'd see that no such reality applies. You'd have slight advantages, but nothingSO DOMINANT as to think that there is a class of riders that are utterly out of this world! Look at BSB, WSBK, Moto2, AMA, all fairly within package range for the top riders. Do you see any "aliens"? No. Why, because the dichotomy of package haves and have nots is within a parameter that less than in MotoGP. So I contend, this idea of "aliens" is ........, and it says more about the package than it does about the riders. The impression has been so ingrained now, that we think we are seeing something out of this world, but that is superficial, and without profound analysis of what is the reality.



I wonder where you rate Hayden in all this fun speculation? Do you think Spies is a much better rider that Nicky? How about instead of Ninja 250s, we put them all on 1000cc Superbikes. Does that alter you "alien" ideas any?

Kropotkin said:

Put De Puniet on a factory Honda and he gets beaten by Dovizioso every time. Put Bautista on a factory Yamaha and he gets beaten by Edwards every time. Put Capirossi on a factory Honda and he is racing with Aoyama on the satellite machine.



There is only one difficult package in MotoGP, and that's the Ducati. Even that is fast, if you're prepared to push through the turbulence and get to the sweet spot. Rossi won't do that, Stoner would. Pedrosa wouldn't, Lorenzo might.



Put the MotoGP field on stock Kawasaki 250 Ninjas, and the four Aliens would be lapping half a second or more quicker than the rest of the field. Stoner would usually be fastest, wins would be shared out fairly equally, and Simoncelli would still crash on the first lap. The rider is still 80% of the package, but all four of the aliens are already riding at close to 100% of their capacity, so the differences between them are more noticeably caused by the bikes they're on.

Click to expand...

Nice post and I agree completely.



Too answer Jum's post. If you role reversed and put the Aliens on the Suzuki and Satellite Ducati's the gap at least would be much less than what it is now. Why? Because the rider still matters. If anything has proved that it is the difference between Stoner and Rossi on the Ducati.

Jumkie said:

hahaha.



I like your match ups Krops. Good stuff. Hey, why don't we put them on a Suzuki GP or Ducati GPs? I'd say as of this year, Ducati is only now accepted as a liability (though some of us have been saying it for several years). ...., Burgess and Rossi themselves accused Stoner of not pushing it, remember? I don't recall too many journalist calling them out. Why? Gotta wonder what they know, eh? Impressions from a distance, they are quite the mothafukers, eh???



As you say, there is only one hard bike, interestingly, only now that Rossi is struggling are people admitting it. Ok, this is a fun exercise. My match up (yes, from my limited viewpoint): think back to testing for a moment, remember the trading of top spots by the Hondas (including Hiroshi minus Toni). What an impression, right? I'd say its left an impression, but come race, Hiroshi was dropped from the works package, and what happened, suddenly he really looked like a mid packer. Correct me if I'm wrong, but did not Simo and Hiro trade while in the intermediate class? Last year Simo & Hiro didn't look that different on occasion either, until injuries set in. What changed? Dovi beating Rdp "every time?" Rdp & Dovi, I'd say, Dovi being the better rider, still they are fairly matched, the Honda giving us all the impression that Dovi is in fact a top 5 rider, while no such impression afforded to Rdp. Alvaro and Edwards, close to even, though again, the false impression that Edward is better than Alvaro because the impression ingrained coming from contrasting packages. Interesting you say 250 Ninjas, so its safe to assume Edwards would have beat Alvaro in the intermediate GP class? Doubt it.



Lets imagine the reverse, as you assigned the "grid fillers to the better rider's packages. How about we put Dovi on Randy's bike together, like teammates. Dovi pushing the Duc beyond its limits like Randy, doubt it. Sure Randy crashes a grip, but why? Dovi strikes me a guy like KRjr, that is, will ride the bike to the bike's safe zone capability, where as Randy had no problem going over it. As teammates on a Duc, advantage Rdp. Now lets put Edwards on Alvaro's bike; push. Lets put Pedro on Karel's bike, advantage Karel (and he doesn't even belong in MotoGP <hehe>) Now let put Dovi and Alvaro on Alvaro's bike. Close to push, very slight advantage Dovi, right? Lets put Pedro on Alvaro's bike, advantage Pedro, but certainly no wins against the Hondas or the Yamahas of the world, right? In fact, lets put Lorenzo, Pedro, Spies, Simo, Dovi, on Alvaro's bike, do any win a title? Doubt it. That's where this idea of "alien" come from, do you see it??? Lets put the "aliens" on Suzuki's and Ducati, and lets move the "grid fillers" to today's factory Hondas and Yamahas, what do you suppose would happen? Which current supposed "alien" riding on the "mid pack PACKAGE" consistently beats the "mid-packers" on the better machines? I doubt any. Why? Let me answer it, because the designation of ALIEN is to give the false impression that these rider far and away a category above, but in reality, shift the packages, and we'd see that no such reality applies. You'd have slight advantages, but nothingSO DOMINANT as to think that there is a class of riders that are utterly out of this world! Look at BSB, WSBK, Moto2, AMA, all fairly within package range for the top riders. Do you see any "aliens"? No. Why, because the dichotomy of package haves and have nots is within a parameter that less than in MotoGP. So I contend, this idea of "aliens" is ........, and it says more about the package than it does about the riders. The impression has been so ingrained now, that we think we are seeing something out of this world, but that is superficial, and without profound analysis of what is the reality.



I wonder where you rate Hayden in all this fun speculation? Do you think Spies is a much better rider that Nicky? How about instead of Ninja 250s, we put them all on 1000cc Superbikes. Does that alter you "alien" ideas any?

Click to expand...

Right.....



1. I chose 250 ninjas at random. Just an example. Put 'em on Vespas, same result.



2. You can't put anyone on a Duc. That has less to do with outright skill and more with the willingness to push through the rough zone to find the sweet spot. You have to push the front of the GP11 very hard to get any heat into the front tire, and the front tire doesn't work until there is some heat in it. That takes a leap of blind faith, that by hammering into a corner, the front will grip, and not let go. Usually it grips. Sometimes it doesn't.



3. Put 'em on Suzukis: Better. The Suzuki's problem is rear grip, not so much front grip, so that's a different proposition. In that case, the four aliens would be lapping a second faster than the rest of the field, just as they are now. You're wrong, Jum, the current four aliens (and maybe Spies, and Simoncelli during qualifying) really are on a different planet to the rest, in terms of talent and understanding (well, not understanding in Simoncelli's case). Put 'em all on satellite Hondas and Stoner, Pedrosa, Rossi and Lorenzo would all still have the same gap over Aoyama that they have now.



4. Simoncelli vs Aoyama. I think Aoyama is the better 250 rider. But Simoncelli is the better MotoGP rider. Different bikes suit different riders, Stoner was a decent 250 rider, but showed none of the genius that he has done on a MotoGP bike.



5. Hayden. I'd say he's as good as Dovi. Which is better than the non-aliens, but still not near the aliens.

Dump the oldies and non-performers. Bring in the Arthur Sissisii, and Brad Smiths' and give them a go.

Kropotkin said:

Put De Puniet on a factory Honda and he gets beaten by Dovizioso every time. Put Bautista on a factory Yamaha and he gets beaten by Edwards every time. Put Capirossi on a factory Honda and he is racing with Aoyama on the satellite machine.



There is only one difficult package in MotoGP, and that's the Ducati. Even that is fast, if you're prepared to push through the turbulence and get to the sweet spot. Rossi won't do that, Stoner would. Pedrosa wouldn't, Lorenzo might.



Put the MotoGP field on stock Kawasaki 250 Ninjas, and the four Aliens would be lapping half a second or more quicker than the rest of the field. Stoner would usually be fastest, wins would be shared out fairly equally, and Simoncelli would still crash on the first lap. The rider is still 80% of the package, but all four of the aliens are already riding at close to 100% of their capacity, so the differences between them are more noticeably caused by the bikes they're on.

Click to expand...

This is the best explanation I've read concerning this subject by a long shot. Well done.

Just curious Jums,





Until Kropo put you well and truly in your place......Why is it that you only would like to see Rossi omitted from the Aliens list? Obviously you feel Pedrosa and Jorge could also jump on the Ducati and runs rings around him.......?

Perhaps the old has beens still have a use in MotoGP. The Moto1 teams could be the new retirement home for geriatrics. It is going to be a step development curve for the teams and at least the old guys know what a prototype chassis should feel like and should be able to provide some decent feedback. Especially if you have teams with rookie mechanics and engineers as well.



So maybe time will see things pan out like:



- The current top guys on factory bikes

- The up and coming young guys getting a shot will be on satellite bikes

- The old guys on the way out will be developing Moto1 bikes along side someone who has bought a ride

Thanks for the exchange Krops. Maybe we disagree with the definition of what is an “alien”. If an “alien” exists, he must win regardless of what he rides, as the status should not be dependent on package. Otherwise, my point holds, that its package depended, regardless of simply stating these guys have a ‘special talent and understanding far beyond the others.’ We now see this reality thanks to Rossi (a deemed “alien”, that “aliens” are DEPENDENT ON PACKAGE, and you simply cannot get around this truth LOGICALLY. That is, if you are to follow the logic that “aliens” have some special utterly out of this world ability to ride a motorcycle. I think we can both appreciate the match ups are speculation, except, it seems we disagree with this idea that "aliens" exist in the class. Again, I think this "alien" moniker is a creation that speaks more to the differences in package in the series. Lets for a moment, eliminate the riders all together. Lets rate package only, the space between the ranking representing level of PACKAGE competitiveness:



HRC Honda

Factory Yamaha

Gresini Honda1

.

Tech3 Yamaha

.

Factory Ducati

Gresini Honda2 Factory Suzuki

.

Sat Ducati



Do we agree? Oddly enough this crudely is about where the riders finish. Coincidence?

Kropotkin said:

Right.....



1. I chose 250 ninjas at random. Just an example. Put 'em on Vespas, same result.

Click to expand...

In your last point you say Aoyama may be a better 250 rider where as Simo a better MGP rider, so you do agree then that there is an element of 'suitability' factor. By your same logic, I content putting them on superbikes we’d say a different picture.

Kropotkin said:

2. You can't put anyone on a Duc. That has less to do with outright skill and more with the willingness to push through the rough zone to find the sweet spot. You have to push the front of the GP11 very hard to get any heat into the front tire, and the front tire doesn't work until there is some heat in it. That takes a leap of blind faith, that by hammering into a corner, the front will grip, and not let go. Usually it grips. Sometimes it doesn't.

Click to expand...

Well then, we should immediately call for a ban of Ducati. Or at very least an Asterix. Perhaps a footnote? I mean, for anybody to compete on the Ducati is surely handicapped. Hell, it might make an “alien” look ordinary, eh?

Kropotkin said:

3. Put 'em on Suzukis: Better. The Suzuki's problem is rear grip, not so much front grip, so that's a different proposition. In that case, the four aliens would be lapping a second faster than the rest of the field, just as they are now. You're wrong, Jum, the current four aliens (and maybe Spies, and Simoncelli during qualifying) really are on a different planet to the rest, in terms of talent and understanding (well, not understanding in Simoncelli's case). Put 'em all on satellite Hondas and Stoner, Pedrosa, Rossi and Lorenzo would all still have the same gap over Aoyama that they have now.

Click to expand...

Lapping a second faster than the current rider, ok, may I say, the statement reminds me of Burgess’ now infamous assessment, he was sure to know Stoner wasn’t pushing and Rossi would match or better Stoner. Ah, speculation, eh buddy? Lapping a second faster than the non-aliens, that’s what you are saying, right? You’re probably right, or probably wrong. With all do respect, you don't know any more than I do on this point, as we are both speculating, right? Or do you know? Other than speculation, what do we have to offer as evidence? (We have nothing to go on at the top level). Perhaps their intermediate class achievement? Well even if we were to compare Stoner’s and Alvaro’s (both non 250 champs, though clearly one is an ‘alien’ the other is not) we’d find Alvaro had more wins and podiums. So that’s no good, eh? I wouldn’t disagree with you that Stoner would lap a second faster than Alvaro, but Alvaro hasn’t got any top tier factory package in the top class to speak of, we can only imagine what the picture might look like if Alvaro was on Dani’s package while Stoner suffered on Ducati. Kinda should give us pause for thought. Maybe not, I mean, Alvaro had 28 podiums to Stoner’s 10, and 8 victories to Stoner’s 5. So we cannot be certain that Alvaro-HRC wouldn’t match Stoner-Ducati, but I'll concede, how about Pedro? Wait, Pedro is slower most of the time than Stoner, so that’s no good either. Even Barbara had comparable numbers to Stoner in the intermediate class. do you follow? My point, the package again has inoculated our perceptions. Certainly if we go on past achievement, we can see a different speculative picture emerges, but we only have to go on what we have, and what we have is very similar guys going to very different packages. I don’t doubt that the top riders have a special understanding as you say, but that is also a product of their packages and the teams that have sounded them. Stoner, a non 250 champ, with similar numbers to the other two mentioned seems clear and above now, while Pedro and Lorenzo, both promoted to the top tier from a top tier continued to show extraordinary results. Is there a connection there? I think there is. Package, the unmistakable “alien” creator. Shelve the rest of this point until my conclusion…

Kropotkin said:

4. Simoncelli vs Aoyama. I think Aoyama is the better 250 rider. But Simoncelli is the better MotoGP rider. Different bikes suit different riders, Stoner was a decent 250 rider, but showed none of the genius that he has done on a MotoGP bike.

Click to expand...

“Different bikes suit different riders”, hence my contention that the “alien” moniker might need adjustment. If all were on superbikes, would that paint a different picture, or conversely, if all were on 250s; if they are “aliens” then why is it dependent on something? Oh, I think I know the answer: package. Barbera, Stoner, and Alvaro had very similar 250 stats to eachother. And so did Lorenzo and Pedro, While Pedro and Lorenzo went to the top tier teams immediately, do you find that interesting?

Kropotkin said:

5. Hayden. I'd say he's as good as Dovi. Which is better than the non-aliens, but still not near the aliens.

Click to expand...

I would agree with you if you can tell me which year Hayden was not in the detrimental shadow of his extraordinarily influential teammates (except Stoner, because as you concede, it’s a matter of Ducati, since even the “GOAT” looks on par with Nicky).





And my last point that “aliens” do not exist in GP, but rather excellent riders with superior packages is as follows. The power of .... packages.... For my last point, let me begin with a question, how many years would you estimate that Rossi would put up struggling on a Ducati? 2 years, 3, 4…? Now contrast that to riders who have no choice. That we know of Rossi is a function that he’s been on the best package, surely you don’t think he would be considered the Goat if his career would have languished on a Ducati, Kawasaki, or Suzuki. Similarly, that we acknowledge the existence of “aliens” (as oppose to just some very good riders like we do in other series) is a testament to the package. Spies, a man knocking on the door to these supposed “aliens” is now challenging his ironclad “alien” status teammate, but by happenstance he didn’t end up at Suzuki, were he was destined. I can read the headline now, “just another failed superbike champ” had he gone to Suzuki. “Aliens” don’t exist unless there is a perception that they are special, and this would not work if they were on subpar machines.





Allow me to say this again, “Aliens” don’t exist unless there is a perception that they are special, and this would NOT work if they were on SUBPAR machines! That Rossi (as I’ve read you say before) would not suffer on a Ducati for long is a function of what he was capable of doing with the best package. Marco Melandri, an intermediate class champ, like Lorenzo & Pedro, and one time runner-up in the MotoGP series with serious achievement, looked destined to be an “alien”; but he had the .... luck of going to Ducati after what looked to be an "alien" like season. After 2006, had he continued in that form, would you have considered him par for Pedro and Lorenzo? I would. He also was on record as saying, “aliens do not exist in MotoGP”, and I tend to agree. You may say he had an axe to grind, but by the same token, he would be in a position to know, now wouldn't he? Now in Wsbk, is he an "alien", well "aliens" don't exist in Wsbk, but he is a 'front runner'--a term I prefer! Bayliss, by all accounts, you’d think would be an “alien”, why wasn’t he successful in GP but immediately successful in Wsbk? Package matters my friend. Politics in GP matters! It may be easy to say Edwards just never cut it, but then again, he was also in the shadow of Rossi before he was relegated to the satellite to make room for Lorenzo. Yamaha has behaved the best in this regard, as the Spanish vs Italian clout was canceled out, and what happened? A phenomenal rookie was allowed the challenge the Great One, and eventually beat him on equal footing. Not so at HRC, who still considered Pedro the heir, that is until they realized they had miscalculated for years, enter Stoner. A paradigm shift. And now Dovi and almost Simo are regular podium contenders. Package counts, GP politics counts. You say these top four are special, yes, but NOT out of this world! They are as special as any regular race winners to their respective series. They are special not just because they win regularly, but because they have the means to win regularly. I suppose I could go on and on with examples of how the package makes this supposed, “alien”. This “alien” status seems only to exist in GP in very much the same way the power and package structure appears in the hierarchy of GP, not a coincidence to me. Your contention that these four have a special understanding is fine, but they’re afforded this privilege, that is my point! They wouldn’t be so extraordinary on subpar packages, i.e. The Great Standard of “aliens” now on Ducati (yeah, I know, you want to disqualify the Ducati comparison, but only because we haven’t had the privy of seeing 2,3,4, good riders languish on other brands like Suzuki and what was Kawasaki, but I’d bet the farm if Rossi would have gone to another subpar brand, we’d be making the same ‘disqualification’). Again, remember, nobody was 'disqualifying' Ducati before Rossi.



Anyway, it seems we disagree on a very minor point, as assuming we even agree on what the term means. And such are the discussions here (as you well know). You think "aliens" exist, I think they don't for the reason I propose. Its a massive waste of time to split the hairs, but just like in Silverstone, where we spent the entire day watching the proceedings live, just to go home and watch the same .... on playback, it a hopeless addition and a massive waste of time. Ah, but what a great waste it is, eh.

Talpa said:

Just curious Jums,





Until Kropo put you well and truly in your place......Why is it that you only would like to see Rossi omitted from the Aliens list? Obviously you feel Pedrosa and Jorge could also jump on the Ducati and runs rings around him.......?

Click to expand...

I won't expect you to understand much, as the grown ups are talking. But here is the answer to your loaded question. I don't want to see ONLY Rossi omitted (as you seem to have missed the whole point of our adult exchange). Go ahead and re-read it, this time a bit more slowly. I contend they should ALL be omitted, or at least the moniker that they are "aliens"; perhaps with the only exception of Stoner, and even then I made a caveat. I just got through a long reply to Kropo. Go ahead and read it a few times. I think I answered your question in more ways than one. But if you find the reading difficult, I'll do you a solid here (that means I'll help you out). In short, "aliens" are only known as special because they have the package to allow you this perception. On subpar packages, we might not know they were as special as to denote them as "aliens". The reason why I use Rossi (though your blind worship lead you to misunderstand my point) is that he is the standard of "alien" status. If we are going to talk "aliens" surely Rossi is one of them. YET, you wouldn't know it from his results, now would you. So how are you going to follow the logic then that "aliens" are utterly out of this world in talent and understanding when you have one languishing as a "mid-packer". Oh right, its the PACKAGE! Now you understand? (I very much doubt it). Though you should, because if anything, I know you think Rossi is God. So for him to look like a mere mortal MUST MEAN its not his fault. So I'm saying, the term "alien" is ........, in favor of making the point MotoGP has a tier package system, those who have, and those who don't. Get it?

L8Braker said:

Every series needs grid fillers. MotoGP certianly cannot afford to loose talent which all in the series are seriously talented. MotoGP needs more characters like Biaggi, Melandri, Haga, Rea, and Fabrizio....which would also be grid fillers but would make for some interesting mid-pack racing...hell talk Mladin into racing and no one would even care about what Stoner has to say...

Click to expand...

If we need more characters, get Guy Martin and John McGuinness out there!

Jumkie said:

Thanks for the exchange Krops. Maybe we disagree with the definition of what is an “alien”. If an “alien” exists, he must win regardless of what he rides, as the status should not be dependent on package. Otherwise, my point holds, that its package depended, regardless of simply stating these guys have a ‘special talent and understanding far beyond the others.’ We now see this reality thanks to Rossi (a deemed “alien”, that “aliens” are DEPENDENT ON PACKAGE, and you simply cannot get around this truth LOGICALLY. That is, if you are to follow the logic that “aliens” have some special utterly out of this world ability to ride a motorcycle. I think we can both appreciate the match ups are speculation, except, it seems we disagree with this idea that "aliens" exist in the class. Again, I think this "alien" moniker is a creation that speaks more to the differences in package in the series. Lets for a moment, eliminate the riders all together. Lets rate package only, the space between the ranking representing level of PACKAGE competitiveness:



HRC Honda

Factory Yamaha

Gresini Honda1

.

Tech3 Yamaha

.

Factory Ducati

Gresini Honda2 Factory Suzuki

.

Sat Ducati



Do we agree? Oddly enough this crudely is about where the riders finish. Coincidence?











In your last point you say Aoyama may be a better 250 rider where as Simo a better MGP rider, so you do agree then that there is an element of 'suitability' factor. By your same logic, I content putting them on superbikes we’d say a different picture.









Well then, we should immediately call for a ban of Ducati. Or at very least an Asterix. Perhaps a footnote? I mean, for anybody to compete on the Ducati is surely handicapped. Hell, it might make an “alien” look ordinary, eh?









Lapping a second faster than the current rider, ok, may I say, the statement reminds me of Burgess’ now infamous assessment, he was sure to know Stoner wasn’t pushing and Rossi would match or better Stoner. Ah, speculation, eh buddy? Lapping a second faster than the non-aliens, that’s what you are saying, right? You’re probably right, or probably wrong. With all do respect, you don't know any more than I do on this point, as we are both speculating, right? Or do you know? Other than speculation, what do we have to offer as evidence? (We have nothing to go on at the top level). Perhaps their intermediate class achievement? Well even if we were to compare Stoner’s and Alvaro’s (both non 250 champs, though clearly one is an ‘alien’ the other is not) we’d find Alvaro had more wins and podiums. So that’s no good, eh? I wouldn’t disagree with you that Stoner would lap a second faster than Alvaro, but Alvaro hasn’t got any top tier factory package in the top class to speak of, we can only imagine what the picture might look like if Alvaro was on Dani’s package while Stoner suffered on Ducati. Kinda should give us pause for thought. Maybe not, I mean, Alvaro had 28 podiums to Stoner’s 10, and 8 victories to Stoner’s 5. So we cannot be certain that Alvaro-HRC wouldn’t match Stoner-Ducati, but I'll concede, how about Pedro? Wait, Pedro is slower most of the time than Stoner, so that’s no good either. Even Barbara had comparable numbers to Stoner in the intermediate class. do you follow? My point, the package again has inoculated our perceptions. Certainly if we go on past achievement, we can see a different speculative picture emerges, but we only have to go on what we have, and what we have is very similar guys going to very different packages. I don’t doubt that the top riders have a special understanding as you say, but that is also a product of their packages and the teams that have sounded them. Stoner, a non 250 champ, with similar numbers to the other two mentioned seems clear and above now, while Pedro and Lorenzo, both promoted to the top tier from a top tier continued to show extraordinary results. Is there a connection there? I think there is. Package, the unmistakable “alien” creator. Shelve the rest of this point until my conclusion…









“Different bikes suit different riders”, hence my contention that the “alien” moniker might need adjustment. If all were on superbikes, would that paint a different picture, or conversely, if all were on 250s; if they are “aliens” then why is it dependent on something? Oh, I think I know the answer: package. Barbera, Stoner, and Alvaro had very similar 250 stats to eachother. And so did Lorenzo and Pedro, While Pedro and Lorenzo went to the top tier teams immediately, do you find that interesting?









I would agree with you if you can tell me which year Hayden was not in the detrimental shadow of his extraordinarily influential teammates (except Stoner, because as you concede, it’s a matter of Ducati, since even the “GOAT” looks on par with Nicky).





And my last point that “aliens” do not exist in GP, but rather excellent riders with superior packages is as follows. The power of .... packages.... For my last point, let me begin with a question, how many years would you estimate that Rossi would put up struggling on a Ducati? 2 years, 3, 4…? Now contrast that to riders who have no choice. That we know of Rossi is a function that he’s been on the best package, surely you don’t think he would be considered the Goat if his career would have languished on a Ducati, Kawasaki, or Suzuki. Similarly, that we acknowledge the existence of “aliens” (as oppose to just some very good riders like we do in other series) is a testament to the package. Spies, a man knocking on the door to these supposed “aliens” is now challenging his ironclad “alien” status teammate, but by happenstance he didn’t end up at Suzuki, were he was destined. I can read the headline now, “just another failed superbike champ” had he gone to Suzuki. “Aliens” don’t exist unless there is a perception that they are special, and this would not work if they were on subpar machines.





Allow me to say this again, “Aliens” don’t exist unless there is a perception that they are special, and this would NOT work if they were on SUBPAR machines! That Rossi (as I’ve read you say before) would not suffer on a Ducati for long is a function of what he was capable of doing with the best package. Marco Melandri, an intermediate class champ, like Lorenzo & Pedro, and one time runner-up in the MotoGP series with serious achievement, looked destined to be an “alien”; but he had the .... luck of going to Ducati after what looked to be an "alien" like season. After 2006, had he continued in that form, would you have considered him par for Pedro and Lorenzo? I would. He also was on record as saying, “aliens do not exist in MotoGP”, and I tend to agree. You may say he had an axe to grind, but by the same token, he would be in a position to know, now wouldn't he? Now in Wsbk, is he an "alien", well "aliens" don't exist in Wsbk, but he is a 'front runner'--a term I prefer! Bayliss, by all accounts, you’d think would be an “alien”, why wasn’t he successful in GP but immediately successful in Wsbk? Package matters my friend. Politics in GP matters! It may be easy to say Edwards just never cut it, but then again, he was also in the shadow of Rossi before he was relegated to the satellite to make room for Lorenzo. Yamaha has behaved the best in this regard, as the Spanish vs Italian clout was canceled out, and what happened? A phenomenal rookie was allowed the challenge the Great One, and eventually beat him on equal footing. Not so at HRC, who still considered Pedro the heir, that is until they realized they had miscalculated for years, enter Stoner. A paradigm shift. And now Dovi and almost Simo are regular podium contenders. Package counts, GP politics counts. You say these top four are special, yes, but NOT out of this world! They are as special as any regular race winners to their respective series. They are special not just because they win regularly, but because they have the means to win regularly. I suppose I could go on and on with examples of how the package makes this supposed, “alien”. This “alien” status seems only to exist in GP in very much the same way the power and package structure appears in the hierarchy of GP, not a coincidence to me. Your contention that these four have a special understanding is fine, but they’re afforded this privilege, that is my point! They wouldn’t be so extraordinary on subpar packages, i.e. The Great Standard of “aliens” now on Ducati (yeah, I know, you want to disqualify the Ducati comparison, but only because we haven’t had the privy of seeing 2,3,4, good riders languish on other brands like Suzuki and what was Kawasaki, but I’d bet the farm if Rossi would have gone to another subpar brand, we’d be making the same ‘disqualification’). Again, remember, nobody was 'disqualifying' Ducati before Rossi.



Anyway, it seems we disagree on a very minor point, as assuming we even agree on what the term means. And such are the discussions here (as you well know). You think "aliens" exist, I think they don't for the reason I propose. Its a massive waste of time to split the hairs, but just like in Silverstone, where we spent the entire day watching the proceedings live, just to go home and watch the same .... on playback, it a hopeless addition and a massive waste of time. Ah, but what a great waste it is, eh.

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That was the longest apologia for Nicky Hayden I have ever read.



A: Rossi could win on the Ducati (or get very close) if he pushed harder and was willing to risk crashing. He isn't. He's 32. I think if Rossi was 23, he'd be winning, and bitching just as much as he is now.



B. Put them all on superbikes and the order is the same, Rossi, Stoner et al at the front, Spies and Simoncelli pushing to catch them, with Hayden and Dovi not far behind, the rest fighting over the scraps.



C. The difference between a Superbike, a MotoGP bike and a 250 is one of horsepower and traction. Stoner always says that he wanted to get on a big bike as quickly as possible, because the more powerful and heavier the bike was, the happier he felt.



The point is that the talent levels in the current era are higher than they have ever been. If a young Kevin Schwantz or Mick Doohan, or even Giacomo Agostini, rolled into the paddock today on a factory Honda, they would get their arses handed to them with a pretty bow and a cherry on top by the Fab Four. The current aliens make fewer mistakes than any other rider in history, and are closer to the limit than anyone has ever been. That's the nature of these machines: make a mistake and you lose a tenth, and that's time you're never going to get back again. That won't change until with ditch the Bridgestones and the electronics (in that order).



Rossi's natural talent was such that he could beat the likes of Gibernau and Biaggi with one arm tied behind his back. Stoner, Pedrosa and Lorenzo all came in to the championship knowing they had to beat Rossi, so they raised their game until they were competitive, driving Rossi to get better, in a vicious circle that has produced the current crop. That makes me hopeful for Spies, as Mladin did to Spies what Rossi has done to the other aliens.



So, if you want to see the definition of an alien, watch the races, and while you're watching, count the number of mistakes. Jorge Lorenzo doesn't make any. Casey Stoner doesn't make any. Dani Pedrosa doesn't make any. Nor does Valentino Rossi. Randy de Puniet or Colin Edwards .... up regularly, and finish 15 seconds behind the leaders. Battles at the front are decided by 1 or maybe 2 mistakes. Watch the racing 2006 and you'll see 4 or 5 mistakes a lap. That's what makes great racing.



And for the record, Nicky Hayden completely deserves his title. He was testing parts for the '07 bike while still scoring podiums almost every race. Meanwhile, Furusawa, Burgess and Rossi had their heads up their own arses and were making mistake after mistake. They fully deserved to lose that title, with Rossi's crash at Valencia the fitting end to his challenge.



However, when Hayden was at Ducati with Stoner, they got pretty close to equal treatment. The difference in results between those two had nothing to do with a difference in package, merely a difference in talent.

Kropotkin said:

That was the longest apologia for Nicky Hayden I have ever read.

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Take a look back through the archives, sometime--especially at the end of 2006; some of those reach biblical proportions!

Kropotkin said:

A: Rossi could win on the Ducati (or get very close) if he pushed harder and was willing to risk crashing. He isn't. He's 32. I think if Rossi was 23, he'd be winning, and bitching just as much as he is now.

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At some point will he become desperate enough to try?

Kropotkin said:

B. Put them all on superbikes and the order is the same, Rossi, Stoner et al at the front, Spies and Simoncelli pushing to catch them, with Hayden and Dovi not far behind, the rest fighting over the scraps.

C. The difference between a Superbike, a MotoGP bike and a 250 is one of horsepower and traction. Stoner always says that he wanted to get on a big bike as quickly as possible, because the more powerful and heavier the bike was, the happier he felt.

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This still doesn't address the point that Jumkie raised. If you believe Aoyama is a better 250 rider than Simoncelli, then surely the differentiation must have some meaning. Hayden can't find those last few tenths on an 800, but he could on a 990.

Kropotkin said:

The point is that the talent levels in the current era are higher than they have ever been. If a young Kevin Schwantz or Mick Doohan, or even Giacomo Agostini, rolled into the paddock today on a factory Honda, they would get their arses handed to them with a pretty bow and a cherry on top by the Fab Four. The current aliens make fewer mistakes than any other rider in history, and are closer to the limit than anyone has ever been. That's the nature of these machines: make a mistake and you lose a tenth, and that's time you're never going to get back again. That won't change until with ditch the Bridgestones and the electronics (in that order).

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I'm surprised to see you venturing onto this slippery slope. A young Schwantz, Doohan or Ago would've come through the ranks in the same fashion as the current crop and would have the ability to hone their talent for the required skillset (unless you are arguing that their talent was/is overrated). I mean, you could just as easliy argue that a young Stoner, Pedrosa, Rossi or Lorenzo in Ago's era would have smeared themselves all across the asphalt, kerbing and concrete at the IOM or the old Brno circuit, or been diced, sliced, juliened and/or pulped by armco and haybales in Schwantz or Doohan's time...



The current 'aliens' still make a lot of mistakes. Hell, Stoner made one on the last lap at Mugello and it cost him second. Lorenzo outbraked himself two or three times going into the first turn. Rossi went to Ducati. Pedrosa didn't drink enough milk as a child. I could go on...



Edwards summed it up best (refering to Rossi in this case): "Rossi will tell you himself, he makes just as many mistakes as anyone else--but it's the way he recovers from those mistakes that sets him apart." Everyone remembers the last corner at Jerez in 2005; few seem to recall that the only reason Gibernau was leading at all was because Rossi had ...... up badly at the Dry Sack, outbraking himself completely. I think the silly curse comment (a throwaway line, if ever there was one; it only gained prominence because Gibernau's form dropped away so badly) was the last thing on his mind entering that turn--the humilation of gifting a win to Gibernau at his home GP was surely uppermost in his thoughts.

Rising Sun said:

Take a look back through the archives, sometime--especially at the end of 2006; some of those reach biblical proportions!





At some point will he become desperate enough to try?





This still doesn't address the point that Jumkie raised. If you believe Aoyama is a better 250 rider than Simoncelli, then surely the differentiation must have some meaning. Hayden can't find those last few tenths on an 800, but he could on a 990.





I'm surprised to see you venturing onto this slippery slope. A young Schwantz, Doohan or Ago would've come through the ranks in the same fashion as the current crop and would have the ability to hone their talent for the required skillset (unless you are arguing that their talent was/is overrated). I mean, you could just as easliy argue that a young Stoner, Pedrosa, Rossi or Lorenzo in Ago's era would have smeared themselves all across the asphalt, kerbing and concrete at the IOM or the old Brno circuit, or been diced, sliced, juliened and/or pulped by armco and haybales in Schwantz or Doohan's time...



The current 'aliens' still make a lot of mistakes. Hell, Stoner made one on the last lap at Mugello and it cost him second. Lorenzo outbraked himself two or three times going into the first turn. Rossi went to Ducati. Pedrosa didn't drink enough milk as a child. I could go on...



Edwards summed it up best (refering to Rossi in this case): "Rossi will tell you himself, he makes just as many mistakes as anyone else--but it's the way he recovers from those mistakes that sets him apart." Everyone remembers the last corner at Jerez in 2005; few seem to recall that the only reason Gibernau was leading at all was because Rossi had ...... up badly at the Dry Sack, outbraking himself completely. I think the silly curse comment (a throwaway line, if ever there was one; it only gained prominence because Gibernau's form dropped away so badly) was the last thing on his mind entering that turn--the humilation of gifting a win to Gibernau at his home GP was surely uppermost in his thoughts.

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You make many good points which I don't have time to answer. Except to say the comparison is then vs now, obviously Schwantz would be a different rider having come up through the ranks today. Edwards was right about the Rossi of 2005, but things have changed now. The mistakes are tiny, almost eliminated, because the 800s allow it.

Thanks Krop yours posts are so informative for me and many others I'm sure......

Krops, thanks for taking the time, I know you are very busy these days man. So am I actually busy too, and I shouldn't be clowning around on the forum. Btw, do you plan to make it across the pond this year?

Kropotkin said:

That was the longest apologia for Nicky Hayden I have ever read.

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Ah, I see your mind reading is not limited to just Stoner.

Kropotkin said:

A: Rossi could win on the Ducati (or get very close) if he pushed harder and was willing to risk crashing. He isn't. He's 32. I think if Rossi was 23, he'd be winning, and bitching just as much as he is now.

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Well in that case, Rossi could win on anything, all that would be required is youth and balls. So maybe all the packages are the same, since the potential is there, as you are suggesting, all that is required is to 'push'. So package doesn't matter...

Kropotkin said:

B. Put them all on superbikes and the order is the same, Rossi, Stoner et al at the front, Spies and Simoncelli pushing to catch them, with Hayden and Dovi not far behind, the rest fighting over the scraps.

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As long as they are not Ducati's right?

Kropotkin said:

C. The difference between a Superbike, a MotoGP bike and a 250 is one of horsepower and traction. Stoner always says that he wanted to get on a big bike as quickly as possible, because the more powerful and heavier the bike was, the happier he felt.

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So Stoner likes bigger bikes. Looks like a few others did all right on 990s too.

Kropotkin said:

The point is that the talent levels in the current era are higher than they have ever been. If a young Kevin Schwantz or Mick Doohan, or even Giacomo Agostini, rolled into the paddock today on a factory Honda, they would get their arses handed to them with a pretty bow and a cherry on top by the Fab Four. The current aliens make fewer mistakes than any other rider in history, and are closer to the limit than anyone has ever been. That's the nature of these machines: make a mistake and you lose a tenth, and that's time you're never going to get back again. That won't change until with ditch the Bridgestones and the electronics (in that order).





Rossi's natural talent was such that he could beat the likes of Gibernau and Biaggi with one arm tied behind his back. Stoner, Pedrosa and Lorenzo all came in to the championship knowing they had to beat Rossi, so they raised their game until they were competitive, driving Rossi to get better, in a vicious circle that has produced the current crop. That makes me hopeful for Spies, as Mladin did to Spies what Rossi has done to the other aliens.

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Or it’s as simple as a 'fab' with the 'four'. I don't dispute that today, every detail of the competitor is refined for the purpose of competing, my argument is simple, that they are all so refined, the magnitude of the separation to their fellow competitors has something to do with the lack of parity given the tools of the game. You sound like these guys are boxers, and are a cut above, but as you tell us over and over again in your superior body of work that small tiny details in equipment make big differences. IF it were NOT so, we would still have a tire war, Rossi would have stayed on Michelin, Stoner would have won the race last weekend, and many more examples. Imagine that, a simple difference between two juggernaut (no less) rubber companies, this was enough to decide titles. But you want to convince me that package doesn't matter in this ONE case, arguing that "aliens" must exist in MotoGP because they are the ones winning by a WIDE MARGINS. Again, I believe that ‘margin’ is the package. Otherwise, we would not see these wide margins for you to perceive that these “fab four” are “out of this world”. What close follower of the 800 era has said the parity between the teams has narrowed? If anything, they have widened. That’s why I mention the 2006 season, because the parity was there. And what was the result? Multiple winners, hell even Roberts Jr., on less than a sat bike, should have won Etoril. We call the ‘fab four’ “aliens” because they have been the only ones winning. Well what’s happened to the parity in the 800 era? Has it narrowed the parity or widened it? How many satellite bikes are in contention? Basically its been two factories and Stoner. Period. But you want to convince me package has nothing or little to do with it, right? Aliens don’t exist Krop, if anything, only one is, Stoner. The rest are front runners on great machines. Just like Wsbk.

Kropotkin said:

So, if you want to see the definition of an alien, watch the races, and while you're watching, count the number of mistakes. Jorge Lorenzo doesn't make any. Casey Stoner doesn't make any. Dani Pedrosa doesn't make any. Nor does Valentino Rossi. Randy de Puniet or Colin Edwards .... up regularly, and finish 15 seconds behind the leaders. Battles at the front are decided by 1 or maybe 2 mistakes. Watch the racing 2006 and you'll see 4 or 5 mistakes a lap. That's what makes great racing.

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In terms of titles, fewer mistakes lately you may mean. There's been plenty of mistake made, the thing is that in their championship seasons, the one who made the least did win. But that doesn't change the pace they can run, does it? In terms of pace, they are faster than the rest partly because few mistakes per lap, AND they are all very much on the best teams. What good is it for a mid-packer to make zero mistakes if his pace is still less? He’s still not going to win. We can discount say DePuniet for making mistakes, but then again, he's on a Ducati. Just as was the "alien" that is Stoner, who seemed to exemplify the very narrow band the Ducati can operate wheels up. Well, no need to go into that, since you have disqualified the Ducati on the basis that Rossi can't ride it, right? That leaves Suzuki and a very questionable LCR Honda. So to this idea of ‘alien’, why do you suppose nobody says there are "aliens" in the intermediate class? Its not just because MotoGP is the premier, is it? Surely, if one rider was noticeably a cut above, we might say he’s an ‘alien’ in that class. If there was an 'alien' last year it would have been Toni Elias. What is the difference, as you simplified it for us, power and traction. Well I'll say, in Moto2, built into the class is an element of PARITY (by design). We can easily see this because of the very close racing. If we had one rider consistently dominating, we could then say, hey, that guy is an "alien". That is by your definition, the regular dominant winner making the least mistakes. But why don't we see this regularly? Oh yeah, because their packages are much more similar across the board; something decidedly NOT the case in MotoGP! It’s the reason why we can have a guy who is a phenomenon like Elias in the lower class be a back marker in the MotoGP class. You say yourself; there is an element of suitability. But this is to be ignored in our speculations of what is an "alien”, right? And, why?

Kropotkin' timestamp='1310034306' post='286416 said:

And for the record, Nicky Hayden completely deserves his title. He was testing parts for the '07 bike while still scoring podiums almost every race. Meanwhile, Furusawa, Burgess and Rossi had their heads up their own arses and were making mistake after mistake. They fully deserved to lose that title, with Rossi's crash at Valencia the fitting end to his challenge.



However, when Hayden was at Ducati with Stoner, they got pretty close to equal treatment. The difference in results between those two had nothing to do with a difference in package, merely a difference in talent.

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Yeah, I've read you site on the subject, I've known your excellent opinions on this subject as well as others. However, in this exchange, I didn't dispute Nicky's equal treatment with Stoner, did I? I said that's the 'only' years I disqualified, and its based on your urging, since... the argument goes, if Rossi can not get on with Ducati, who can? That still leaves him being teammate to Pedro and Rossi. But this is a tangent, or as you'd like to mind read, apologia.



It’s been fun Krops. Thanks for your audience with great replies; I tried to reciprocate to the best of my limited ability, but as you can imagine, your opinion is of true "alien" status, mine, mid-packer at best, and that's not something I would debate. Much respect Krops.

Kropotkin said:

That was the longest apologia for Nicky Hayden I have ever read.





However, when Hayden was at Ducati with Stoner, they got pretty close to equal treatment. The difference in results between those two had nothing to do with a difference in package, merely a difference in talent.

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Bulls-eye!!



Thanks kropo, Whilst out-debating Jums is not particularly difficult, its always a pleasure to read you handing him his arse with a pretty bow



And Jums, it seems that only one adult is talking, the child he is talking to is still not listening......



It was Colin Edwards who coined the term 'Alien' and named the talent worthy of the title, I suggest his or Kropo's expertise is not in question, especially not from the likes of you......please continue though-its quite enjoyable

DRILL said:

Yes ,I know bud,but will he ever be champ?NO. Although Colin is very useful in bringing on and guiding his teammate ,time will run out for him eventually.I will say that CE2 is top of the `veteran` crop though.

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I guess we can eliminate most of the field. We can get this thing down to 5 guys if we try hard enough. If we narrow the field to only 5 riders, that will save TONS of money and would then allow for increased testing. In fact, lets get rid of all of the satellite teams, those guys are frankly incapable of winning also. I don't see any need for the CRT teams either.



This is great!



I also vote for this! Anyone not currently or predicted to challenge for the MotoGP title should be immediately removed from the series! I think we should create Moto4 or something like that where all the non-challengers can go to race each other. We'll put them on pocket bikes/ big wheels or something else so that injuries are not prevalent...

Kropotkin said:

That was the longest apologia for Nicky Hayden I have ever read.

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Hayden is a lot better than people give him credit for so Hayden fans are keen to talk him up. He was boosted into the sport by American Honda for marketing purposes. As a result, he has always been treated as window dressing. Ducati were the first manufacturer to take him seriously, but the GP has proven (with Rossi's arrival) to be a fickle mistress and uncompetitive without Casey Stoner.



Hayden's problem has always been (and will always be) that he abuses equipment. If an engine blows up when it overrevs, Hayden will destroy it. If a tire is designed to barely make race distance, Hayden will wear it down to the carcass. It wasn't a problem when he was riding production nails with hard tires that were designed to cope with crappy American pavement, but GP bikes are considerably more delicate.



For the first time in Hayden's GP career, I think he is finally on machinery that cannot be broken. There will be no fragility to the upcoming 81mm 1000cc machines, and the Bridgestone tires have proven to be nearly indestructible. Hayden could ride as hard has he wants and back the bike in until his heart is content without any consequences. Unfortunately, there is the problem with the fuel tank. The tank is designed such that MotoGP bikes can barely reach the finish line so Nicky is naturally capable of running the bike out of fuel by about 3/4 race distance without an electronic nanny to control his consumption.



If MotoGP added another 3L of fuel, Hayden would be at the sharp end every weekend as would Spies, Rossi, and Stoner. I suspect riders like Pedrosa and Lorenzo would end up like Max Biaggi. My point is not necessarily to glorify Hayden or put down Spanish riders, but to say that equipment IS very important, imo. If the formula changes so will the pecking order. The only mainstay at the front, regardless of the formula, would be Casey Stoner who has proven capable of riding over or around any problem or mechanical limitation. Everyone else has a Christmas list of performance attributes.



I think Moto2 has demonstrated that many riders can have their 15 minutes of fame when they are happy. MotoGP is not a place where many riders can have their 15 minutes. Sadly, WSBK is becoming similar, and for that reason, I'm inclined to believe that jumping from GP to WSBK is somewhat precarious b/c we have more world-class talent than world class machines. Pity.

I don't want any to leave. Id like to see more come to the series first before we start carving out dead wood. I'm not so sure half the peeps we consider dead wood are. Look at edwoods at silverstone and we still get to see some brilliance from capi now and again despite the piece of .... he is riding.

levigarrett said:

I guess we can eliminate most of the field. We can get this thing down to 5 guys if we try hard enough. If we narrow the field to only 5 riders, that will save TONS of money and would then allow for increased testing. In fact, lets get rid of all of the satellite teams, those guys are frankly incapable of winning also. I don't see any need for the CRT teams either.



This is great!

I also vote for this! Anyone not currently or predicted to challenge for the MotoGP title should be immediately removed from the series! I think we should create Moto4 or something like that where all the non-challengers can go to race each other. We'll put them on pocket bikes/ big wheels or something else so that injuries are not prevalent...

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This is a very clever post. Well done.