The Future of Superbike

My spidey sense tells me the winds of change are blowing somewhere in the FIM and the MSMA. Here's my interpretation of the Superbike eras, and where we could be headed.

The homologation special era (1988-2002)



Format: From the outset, World Superbike was basically a homologation special competition. The FIM required just 500 examples to be built for the FIM to consider homologation. Few holds were barred so the machines were quite exotic--V4, gear cams, 5-valve, titanium connecting rods, etc.

The problem: Certain brands and manufacturers had the ability to build these machines and support privateer racers, while selling surplus units to the public. Other brands did not. The mission of Superbike is wide spread competitiveness so the Ducati-Honda cup during the late 750cc era was not ideal for the sport.



Mods-For-Everyone Era (2003-2017)



Format: As MotoGP switched to 990cc 4-stroke, the Flamminis decided WSBK should be 1000cc, and the manufacturers should have access to robust modifications techniques. Paradoxically, the more tuning allowed by the regulations within the performance framework, the more equal the racing would become. Ducati dominated the early seasons, but eventually the competition would even out.

The problem: Mods for everyone is quite fair, but it's also quite expensive. The global financial crisis thinned the grid as manufacturers withdrew support. After MotoGP began expanding for the new 1000cc formula, WSBK was basically left with two manufacturers that cared. One of them had Rea, and one didn't.



The BOP Era (2018-present)



Format: The current BOP era would see the FIM return to homologation specials, but with a new set of balancing regulations to keep the field competitive. Few modifications would be free; instead, the parts needed to achieve the prescribed performance threshold would be homologated and made available for all teams.

The problem: Superbikes continue getting faster, and they are outrunning tracks in the national series and even at the international level (e.g. Monza). Furthermore, the prodigious power output requires sophisticated electronics to manage, particularly four-cylinder bikes with an even firing order. Though these incredible bikes are appreciated for entertainment purposes, it is unclear if high revving 250-cc-per-cylinder machines will survive emissions regulations. It's also unclear if the economy recovers if there will be enough privateers at the international and national level with the ability to absorb the 500 units required for homologation.


The Future?

Format: If you examine the problems of the existing formula, they can be addressed with a simple solution -- reduce power output. Lower peak horsepower will result in lower top speeds and trap speeds (assuming constant grip and weight), which will bring more tracks and more riders back into play for Superbike. Lower power output will put less emphasis on engine firing order and the electronics required to make it work. The easiest way to achieve lower power outputs in Superbike is to up-tune Next-Generation World Supersport when the 600s move on to greener pastures (Moto2?) The Suzuki 750, MV F3, and Ducati Panigale V2 can all easily hit 150+ horsepower with minimal modifications. This also gives the manufacturers more flexibility regarding displacement per cylinder and operational engine speeds to help meet emissions.

The problem: Superbike could be losing 50hp. If the FIM and Dorna move this direction to make superbike more accessible and better differentiated from MotoGP, could it survive the fan apocalypse?

Hollywood said:

Does the world need 2 premier motorcycle road racing series?

what happens when electric bikes take over?

Given that the sport bike market is way down over the last decade, whats the incentive for the manufactures?

Click to expand...

In my opinion, the manufacturers have no incentive, but they also have no choice. The 600s are being outlawed, in a roundabout fashion, by emissions regulations. In truth, they could probably survive with mild detuning, and state-of-the-art variable cam timing, but sales are not significant enough in Europe to warrant such a huge investment, particularly since race teams can barely afford to run 600s under the old WSS rules circa 2013-2014.

Emissions regulations will probably require lower rev ceilings and higher displacement per cylinder. The manufacturers could simply detune the existing bikes, but the public will not go for it. The supersport segment is predicated on performance. Customers expect rising power output and performance. Customer demand compels the manufacturers to reinvent the Superbike concept.

If the MSMA moves to a new format, the 1000s will be orphaned. That will create an interesting situation. Will MotoGP move to world Super-Superbike, with the national series running the current 1000cc BOP rulebook? Will Superbikes become exotic machines like the RC213V-S used for a new look GP series? Will Moto3 be punted to the national series, and MotoGP is merged with world superbike?

Even if electric becomes a thing, I think gasoline-burners will still be racing somewhere. We still race horses.

Keshav said:

I still drop by the local weekend bike meets in my area and have noticed so many more guys riding small 350cc bikes from KTM and BMW - that are very sexy looking. My feeling is a lot of people are happy enough as long as they can project that Racer-Guy image. Last week when my other bike was in the shop, I came up behind about 20 guys in expensive leathers all of them on Ducatis with the noisy dry clutches and super loud exhaust systems. I was on my mildly tuned F800R, and sliced through them like they were standing still. They might as well have been the Southern Baptist Ladies Cotillion Scooter Club. All about the image. My experience is that very few of the guys on liter bikes come anywhere near using 60% of the bike’s potential. Either they’re afraid of getting a scratch on the bike, or they’ve had one small crash and decided to ride as risk free as possible.

Click to expand...

It will probably always be that way, too. Superbikes and supersports are somewhat heavy with aggressive geometry and high seat height. They are often unsettled on public roads at low-ish speeds. Most riders with a properly setup standard bike (faired or otherwise) would probably go much faster and be happier.

It's all about the image, though, as you mentioned.

I also agree with Bern and Hollywood that the Superbike and Supersport segments have nowhere to go within their own concept. The power outputs are maxed, most of the new bikes already have the big name electronics (engine braking, wheelie control, etc). But I think the concept can be altered. Consider the case of the Aprilia RS660. Aprilia chopped two cylinders off of a 600cc supersport bike, and then boosted displacement by 10%. It's a 100hp sportbike that weighs about 10-20 pounds less than the average supersport. It's a 270 crank, IIRC, which provides a nice firing order without the drawbacks of a V-twin, like the increased maintenance costs and the butt-burn from the rear cylinder and exhaust.

To me, it's an exciting "new" concept in supersport bikes. Maintain 100hp, delete 10-20 pounds, make the bike narrower and more wieldy. Buyers seem to be responding, and there are rumors about a raft of new bikes on the way. Personally, I think Yamaha made a mistake with the Yamaha R7. They wanted to enter the market quickly to capitalize on demand, but that bike will be deadwood in 1-2 years time when Kawasaki, Honda, and others release their new twin supersports.

Maybe the MSMA are just reshuffling the deck chairs on the titanic, but lightweighting could be a path forward for the sportbike industry.

Hollywood said:

The bikes have gotten lighter over the last 20 years, but how much lighter can they go with out resorting to exotic materials that drive the price up. even if they got dramatically lighter, it wouldnt be a game changer that everyone has to have.

Click to expand...

True. Reducing wet weight 20 lbs with a fuel-efficient parallel twin will not attract riders like an inline four revving to 14,000 rpm.

The industry would ultimately rely upon strong fundamentals. Similar peak power to a supersport with more torque. Less weight than a supersport. Lower cost to build (and buy?). Fewer valves to adjust. Fundamentals won’t warm the loins of speed hungry squids, but they can fix a broken supersport segment, imo.

You’re right about hitting the limit, though. Swapping the 600s for new parallel twins provides big gains, but I don’t see another evolution on the horizon. The key will be maintaining the novelty of this concept for as long as possible. Production bike racing usually performs this task. When the formula is new, power output is modest, but over time, the bikes gain 1-2hp per year to give the appearance of technological progress. Twins Cup bikes make about 100hp now. In 15-20 years the FIM will have them around 135. Displacements will rise and street performance may increase slightly.

Same thing will happen if they reboot Superbike by retuning Next-Gen Supersport. Bikes will probably start at a modest 155hp, increased to 185 over 20 years.

If this type of plan is implemented, when does it begin? Formulas run in 15 year periods in WSBK so 2032? Will production bike racing make it that long? Will anyone care?

Hollywood said:

the next evolution in high performance bikes will be electric

Click to expand...

Someday, but is that day already dawning?

Electric motors are the opposite of what a motorcycle needs--high torque and relatively modest power. New electric motors with higher rpm will be required. Battery density is usable, but electrics are still overweight. Plus, the market will prioritize the use of limited battery supplies. The auto industry will consume marginal increases in battery production.

More importantly, I don't think they have a commercial strategy for monetizing electric motorsport. Perhaps regulators will force their hand, but even in that event, racing is more likely to perish than thrive at the hands of regulatory machinations. Electric motorcycles can't even run 10 laps at considerably reduced race pace.

I think we have at least another generation of racing fossil fuel engines.

#22 said:

Despite some pushes, IC engines aren't going anywhere for a long time.

The most likely scenario I see for bikes is to move to renewable/synthetic fuels.

Click to expand...

Carbon-neutral drop-ins are the way things should work. Will they work that way? Not sure. Lots of people looking at the petro-transportation complex and licking their chops. Drop-in biofuels would allow both of them to survive, maybe even thrive in the 21st century.