Qatar GP laptime comparisons with 2010

RussF1 said:

We are talking about a single lap effort in QP, so there's clearly more to it than the shoulder.

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Renjith said:

One reason could be that he was trying out race simulation for the first 45 mins of the QP and that his shoulder lost the strength by the time he put on the softer tyres

Also, to be fair, Stoner had 3 years riding exp on the Ducati where as this was Rossi's first race.



To add to that Hayden went back by 5/10 th of second in race pace and its exactly the difference between Stoner's 2010 best race lap and Rossi's 2011 best race lap.

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ptk50 said:

But this one is the best "Also, to be fair, Stoner had 3 years riding exp on the Ducati where as this was Rossi's first race" - As a longtime VR fan - this is sooooooooo weak - how's your memory - take a look at early 2007 season for how Ducati's new boy performed against VR and the Yam.

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ptk50 said:

Renjith - some of your stuff is just tooooooooooo much

duhhhhhh - then maybe it would have been smarter to try for the quali earlier - like before the shoulder was knackered for the day

But this one is the best "Also, to be fair, Stoner had 3 years riding exp on the Ducati where as this was Rossi's first race" - As a longtime VR fan - this is sooooooooo weak - how's your memory - take a look at early 2007 season for how Ducati's new boy performed against VR and the Yam.

The good news for me out of the times is how close VR is in 2011 to his 2010 Yam times - pre Motocross .... up. Rossi is eating .... right now - not being on the podium and no matter what he or the press say - he hates it. Honda has developed a really fast bike and Stoner is racing it really fast. Haven't seen that much Repsol colors at the front since Mick, Tady and Co were i=out there. Pedders has got to get his thumb out of his arse and not let Hogay beat him on a weaker bike. VR and JB have a lot to do to get back in the fight at the front for which VR needs to focus on just the one job - that's tough .... - but necessary - no more Motocross or anything other detractor.



Looks like being a great season and not the lame duck 800 series swan song some predicted

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Renjith - some of your stuff is just tooooooooooo much

duhhhhhh - then maybe it would have been smarter to try for the quali earlier - like before the shoulder was knackered for the day

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As a longtime VR fan - this is sooooooooo weak - how's your memory - take a look at early 2007 season for how Ducati's new boy performed against VR and the Yam.

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Renjith said:

This is a very weak argument without any base. Who are you comparing Stoner's pace in 2007 Ducati to? The 2007 Ducati in itself was very different to 2006 version and you don't have anyone to compare to who rode a 800cc Duc the previous season and that too successfully. Where as, in case of Rossi, you are comparing to a previous very successfull 800cc Duc rider who had 3 years to adjust his style and settings to the bike.

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armco said:

Okay, you've confused me. Are you implying that Stoner's 1 year of 250's and 1 year on the LCR Honda was a better preparation for the Ducati than Rossi's decade plus of MotoGP racing streching back to the 500's? The comparison was between '07 Stoner and '11 Rossi, not '10 Stoner vs '11 Rossi.

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Renjith said:

No need for any confusion, the original post was comparison between Stoner 2010 and Rossi 2011 which the ptk50 somehow managed to confuse as Stoner 2007 and Rossi 2011.



I agree that Stoner 2007 Ducati was far more impressive than that of Rossi 2011. But Stoner 2010 and Rossi 2011 laptimes as not incomparable as the OP pointed out

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ptk50 said:

I suggest you do some basic reading on MotoGp - particularly 2007 - aka Stoner's 1st year on the Duc 800



so your statement ""Also, to be fair, Stoner had 3 years riding exp on the Ducati where as this was Rossi's first race" really does miss the point.



Leave out the algorithms - compare Stoner Ducati 1st race 2007 with Rossi Ducati 1st race 2011

or look at Stoner Ducati 1st race 2007 and Rossi Yamaha 1st race 2007 - it's really easy



Jumkie - where are you !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Renjith said:

One reason could be that he was trying out race simulation for the first 45 mins of the QP and that his shoulder lost the strength by the time he put on the softer tyres

Also, to be fair, Stoner had 3 years riding exp on the Ducati where as this was Rossi's first race.



To add to that Hayden went back by 5/10 th of second in race pace and its exactly the difference between Stoner's 2010 best race lap and Rossi's 2011 best race lap.

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RussF1 said:

As for what strategy Rossi may have been working on in QP, I guess we won't know unless we hear it from him, but he was clearly doing 3-5 flying lap runs during QP, like most other top runners were, while some others down the field were in fact doing longer runs of 5+ laps, and in that case they could be said to be working on race pace simulations.

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To be completely unbiased in our analysis though, we do need to acknowledge that as a general rule riders tend to record their fastest race laps from about mid race distance onwards as the fuel load lightens (assuming they are pushing hard for the whole race distance) and clearly in 2010 Stoner's best lap was lap 5 only because he dropped it on lap 6

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Your comment around the Ducati being 5 tenths slower in 2011 for Hayden, somehow being relevant to Rossi's pace, I'm not sure I agree with.



but rather Hayden just went missing in the race for whatever reason, and perhaps they tried something in the way of a setup change for the race out of desperation due to their position in the field.

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Renjith said:

Dude.. you are really something..



I never compared Stoner 2007 with Rossi 2011 (it's you who came up with that). I am repeating it for the 100 millionth time - I consider Stoner's 2007 Ducati debut much more impressive than Rossi 2011.



However, (now start reading carefully...)

The OP was comparing Stoner's 2010 times to Rossi's 2011 time (which I consider to be of not much point). No one, I repeat no-one (nada, zilch.. whatever) brought the 2007 times.



All I am saying is that Stoner by 2010 has been riding Ducati for a considerable time and had raced in Qatar for 4 years in the Ducati. So he obviously will be having a better setup based on the previous years data. But for Rossi it will be more of starting from scratch as far as setup data is concerned.



There is no fancy algorithm here.



And moreover, what do you mean by comparing Stoner 2007 to Rossi 2011? The lap time? Or the race position?

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ptk50 said:

Dear Professor,



First of all who gives a .... about CS 2010 time compared with Rossi's. He was faster - END

Cut across the anal comparisons and get to the meat of it:

Since 2007 Stoner has always been faster than Rossi at Qatar - regardless of bike. Occasionally he's crashed because of (amongst other things) his speed. Surprisingly Rossi was almost as fast on the Duc in 2011 as he was on the Yam in 2010. But Stoner was even faster on the factory Honda - which he was racing for the first time. Comparing Rossi and Hayden times is like comparing Hogay or Spies with CE - two different worlds. Rossi and Duc have a lot of work to do - BASTA

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Jumkie said:

First of all, I'm not buying that Ptk & Ren disagree. Is this still carry over from Goatboy's ill-fated attempt at humor?



Second, Russ, somebody said "welcome to the forum", though I remember you from last year, so "welcome back".



Third, thanks for putting those lap time comparisons up.



Fourth, here is my take on it. Short version: Stoner out performed Rossi.



---You can stop reading if you don’t want an explanation with various degrees of extrapolation.----



I keep reading how the Honda is so dominant on several threads (and admit, from testing, it sure looked that way); but remove Stoner from the equation, and they don't look so over the top. It’s the absence of the Ducatis that really make the test picture appear even more skewed. Its the same way in the race results, though Rob & Talps (the opinion I disagree with the most on this thread) continues to believe the debunked myth that "fast" means some silver bullet in races; ( though I would direct his attention to the top speed times of satellite Ducatis today and in 07, nothing has changed, they are still faster than their factory counterparts; yet lower in finishing orders, though the explanation this year has its caveat). And Talps belief that the Honda is a silver bullet.



I know each of you had your points and logic. But I think its fair while 'comparing' that we could compare the riders first experience with the brand. I think the point trying to be made says something about each rider, specifically Stoner & Rossi. However, a point that is also missed is, the Ducati itself, in that its just crap to start with (yes, even in 07). Hayden provides a great bridge for extrapolation, since we accept he is a good rider who has been teammates with both the men being compared (Stoner & Rossi). Notwithstanding, I would also direct your attention to another rider who at the time displayed race winning talent the year before; but struggled in 07 on his debute, on a bike that only ignorant people still think was something superior (yes even back in 07). I mention Marco Melandri because if we are to compare Stoner's debut and Rossi's debut (I know you were not comparing 07/11 Ren & Russ, but Ptk did, and I think its fair as they are 'debuts') to make some statement about either rider’s skill & talent. (To make the discussion a bit more focused, I won't detail all the different factors surrounding their debuts, like testing restriction, prior experience, tires, etc. so superficially as that comparison is, given their debuts on the machine, I think Stoner is clearly the more successful debut (but Ren, you basically already conceded that, so no surprise).







Regarding the comparison between Stoner and Rossi's lap times between 2010-11; in hopes of making a statement about their adaptation, talent, and development aboard the Ducati, is equally complicated. But I think a few points could be made (barring weather conditions, and time changes, increase in practice, Rossi's first race, injury, etc), I'd say its fair to assess that Rossi has struggled to adapt and to improve the bike. Just going by race lap times, I think its safe to assume not only did Rossi struggle but also the Ducati has gone backward. First the facts before I extrapolate, Nicky was slower this year than at the 'start' of 2010 (that means the bike that was present after winter testing from 2009). The Ducati did progress during the season andwas doing rather well against the well sorted Yamaha & Honda (if you recall, Ducati were running 1-2 before Nicky spilled at Valencia, and in the last few rounds did quiet well, Hayden battling Rossi at PI). This is the Ducati from PRE-Valencia test. I think we could all fairly accept that if Nicky was riding the same 2010 bike, he could at very least match his times from Qatar last year. Agreed? So to better his times on a bike that was "improved" over the season, should not be a stretch to accept he might have bested his times, at least very slightly, right? Now add that over the winter testing, the bike continue to be tinkered with in hope of "improving" it. But what really happened? We see Nicky's times slower. In fairness, its not just slower if you consider that the times he posted were from the 09+winter test bike, so that "slower" becomes even more significant.



Now, can this previous comparison of Hayden 2010 & Hayden 2011 shed any light on Rossi in regards to Stoner's 2010 times? I think so (again with much caveat). The bike that Rossi tested post-race-Valencia race was basically the 2010 bike that had underwent season improvements (as little or as much as that may have been). So in theory, it should have been the better Ducati compared to the Qatar season opener last year. Lets for a moment imagine Rossi raced this bike without any winter "improvements", could his skill (considered the standard) at very least match Rossi’s 2009+winter testing Yamaha? Well I think that's not a stretch to say yes, at very least, since clearly at the end of the 2010 season, not only was Casey (a person who I think really skews the numbers) but Nicky was battling Rossi while on different machines. That is to say, the season ending Ducati was a great match with the season ending Yamaha. So to compare Rossi's lap times with the season "beginning" Yamaha with a Ducati that was at very least developed up until Valencia 2010, may be fair. Agreed? So lets look what actually happened in terms of lap times. Rossi was slower, not just in one or two sessions, but across the board, practice, qual, warm-up, and race. What is the explanation, take your pick: backward development, injury, lack of experience on Duc, weather, etc. Notice, I'm making no comparison between Stoner and Rossi (which frankly is a bit more complicate). However I will repeat the point that Rossi aboard the new Ducati rode slower on a bike that had been developed over 2010+winter testing compared to a well sorted Yamaha from 2009+winter testing.



Now lets take a look at Stoner. Excluding practices, since honestly not much can be extrapolated, but rather focusing on qualifying & race (since this has actual consequences upon the championship, hence a better gage of their capability) Casey qualified near .87 faster this year than last year. Sure, we can chalk it up to the pervading tone that Honda is a rocket ship (though I do NOT subscribe to this, and sounds ominously similar to the 07 argument). It would be a hard sell to convince me otherwise considering the following: while Stoner aboard a Honda improve .87 Q this year, that is an improvement from a Ducati that was the 09+winter testing. Not so spectacular when you think of it that way right? And how about Lorenzo? Jorge improved close to .6, (not so far from .8+) which doesn't sound to me the Honda is the space shuttle some are trying to say regarding its improvement. So again, Stoner improved from last years season starting Ducati to this year’s Honda, are we surprised? Well so did Lorenzo by a close margin, and this simply points to the improvement and normal progression of machine and tires, this is to be expected over a year, so no, the Honda does not have some special superhero powers, except to say, the rider is the difference in that scenario.



I'd like to return a little bit to Hayden for a moment and say, despite we are keeping the analysis rather simple, keep in the back of your mind that Nicky is NOT on the same package as Rossi. As I said in another post, Ducati described it as "the future" so we can conclude explicitly, it is NOT the package for the NOW already started round one. (Think about this for a moment please)



Getting back to the analysis of Stoner, the fast lap in RACE comparison is not as a significant improvement as one might think: .171 from last year to this year (yes, I know Casey crashed last year). Regardless, this margin is not earth shattering. Notwithstanding, that would make sense when we see Lorenzo, who during the race improved from last year too, to a tune of .312 (you would think the Yamaha has actually undergone more improvement, but then again, Lorenzo was hurt). However, Nicky was significantly slower, .438 to be exact. This is the “new” bike that Rossi had to contend with, and it is here where I can begin to mount a comparison between Stoner and Rossi.



First, the picture of development, I think I could make a strong argument that development actually went backward. Consider again that Nicky could not match the times from a year’s worth of development that ended the last day of the 2010 season at Valencia. While in this same span of time, Lorenzo clearly made gains, at very least in qualifying, and most significantly in his fast lap during race. Now if we are going to point to Rossi’s injury for off-set, then I would also like to point to Lorenzo’s injury at the beginning of the 2010 season (at a point when it was the worst during his campaign.)



Second, the performance picture between Stoner and Rossi, I think I could make an argument that Stoner is the better performer (while making an oversimplified off-set for the complexity of comparing them straight up). Though Stoner made gains on an improved Honda, we can NOT simply chalk it up to his bike. For one, he bested the very capable riders who already had experience on the Honda. We accept that motorcycles improve from year to year, and we see this evident in Lorenzo’s qualifying 2010 to 20111, but in race, the difference is much more a mild compared to Lorenzo. So for Casey to outperform his experience teammates who had more experience on the brand speaks more about Casey than it does about the improvements to the bike itself.



In regards to Rossi, he clearly was slower from year to year, fact. So if we are to factor in Casey’s improvements given the “better” Honda, then it would be fair to factor in what should have been the “improved” Ducati from winter testing onward. However since I concede the Ducati actually took a step backward, then judging Rossi compared to Stoner is infinitely more complicated. I think the best we can do is extrapolate how Rossi did against his teammates, that is IF one were on the same bike (where I argue Hayden is on an inferior work-in-progress package). So from that standpoint, even that is not straight up. I’ve already said Rossi is on the ONLY Ducati in his configuration. So where can I go to get some comparative evidence to extrapolate something between Stoner and Rossi’s performance? Frankly, not much there, those I suppose the best we could do is comparing Nicky to Rossi, which I will do in my last paragraph. Anyway, for now, my working conclusion, is that a 7th place Rossi is where a ‘great’ rider finishes on a bike that was sub par to begin with at the end of last season (evidence by Nicky not podiuming regularly, again Casey skews the numbers). Then add to that, the bike has gone backward in development from the point that a great rider could achieve 4ths. Yes, that was a long complicated sentence, but read it again, basically I’m saying, the bike was crap, and went backward, but even in its crap state, Nicky could regularly get 4ths. Rossi ran a crap bike made worse over winter, so naturally a 7th is the best he could do. Even though we are trying to answer the question how we can compare Rossi & Stoner’s performance, I can NOT help but POINT AGAIN to the reality I’ve said 100s of times: GP is a machine driven competition and sheds very little light upon riders (except for the freak that is Casey). Ok, so adding to my conclusion, I think if Rossi is to be given the status of ‘the standard for GP performance’, then its fair to conclude that he was surpassed by Stoner. Why? My answer: Given that Rossi was on a worse evolution of the season ending Ducati 2010, its almost safe to say at very least it was closer to the 2009+winter testing Ducati (that is, the bike Stoner rode last year at Qatar). Given this oversimplified logic, then I conclude Rossi under achieved in the area of performance. Sure, he had less experience on the bike, but if we are going to say Rossi is the standard, then what exactly does that count for? We must apply it to his performance as being the best, the living legend, the GOAT, right? And the best was not able to match the times Stoner produced on a bike from 2009+winter testing.



If you’ve read this far, 1. you are as crazy as me, and 2., there is one other thing I’ve thought about to compare Stoner & Rossi performance. As I said, Rossi had to compete on a worse version of the 2010 Ducati. Lets shelve for a moment the fact that it’s his development team that produced the bike in the state Rossi competed in during the race. So… It would be fair to reduce (make look better) Rossi’s lap times if we could quantify just how much worse the bike has been made. We can try to quantify this in lap time by taking the difference from Hayden’s last year to this year and off-set Rossi’s lap time (yes, I know I already said Hayden has an inferior package, but this is done to help Rossi in this comparison, so just go along with my simplified logic on this one). Understand? Ok, so Hayden in qualifying was .28 slower, and in race was .43 slower this year compared to last. Lets conclude that this is much WORSE the Ducati is. So I’m going to reduce Rossi’s lap times to off-set the amount the Ducati is worse. Get it? That is, I’m going to subtract from Rossi’s lap times what I believe accounts for the backward development. (In case you say, that can’t be done, well talk to Rossi because he quantified his shoulder injury saying was costing him X amount per lap). So the new Rossi lap time with the offset subtracted are: Qual 1:55.35 and Race 1:55.62. This STILL is slower than Stoner, by a significant amount (Stoner Qual: 1:54.137 & Race: 1:55.366). So even with the off-set, Rossi was slower, I think Rossi underachieved, advantage Stoner.

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