Most of us on here have always said that only Marquez will beat Marquez, much like how he did in 2015. This appears to have happened again. Personally I think Marquez has 2 options, he comes back and tries to win a miracle title - which in doing so would make him the GOAT. He equals Rossi's titles against stronger comp etc, along with missing races in a shortened season, or morale victory with most wins blah blah blah. But it's highly unlikely. Of course it will depend on the extent of the injury. If there is no nerve damage and hes back to almost 100% by the time they go to Brno then he is a chance.
His second option is to use this year together with Honda to almost treat every session and race like a test. Sure try to get the best possible results during the race but work the whole season towards finding solutions for all of the Honda's short comings and set himself up for the next few season with a much improved and more rideable bike. He's a competitor and wont want to give this season away but by doing so he could almost guarantee himself the next 3 or 4. It seems with the way the testing and schedule is set up improvements made can give an advantage that last for more than a season while issues can take seasons to work out. Personally I try to make every misfortune an opportunity and I believe this is how Marquez could achieve that.
This has thrown the 2020 title wide open. I think the title race comes down to 3 guys, Dovi, Vinales and Quartararo. Jack Miller may be the wild card. I read that Rins has fractured his shoulder not just dislocated it so i think his chances at the title are probably done.
The season so far is:
Spain Jerez 19 Jul
Andalusia Jerez 26 Jul
Czech Republic Brno 9 Aug
Austria Red Bull Ring 16 Aug
Styria Red Bull Ring 23 Aug
San Marino Misano 13 Sep
Emilia Romagna Misano 20 Sep
Catalunya Catalunya 27 Sep
France Le Mans 11 Oct
Aragon Motorland 18 Oct
Teruel Motorland 25 Oct
Europe Valencia 8 Nov
Valencia Valencia 15 Nov
Looking at each race
Jerez = advantage Yamaha. Vinales made the wrong tyre choice so may win next time out. If Dovi can find himself on the podium next weekend then he will be looking pretty good heading into Brno and Austria.
Brno & Austria = Advantage Dovi and Ducati. If Dovi can win 2 or 3 races here and pull Jack or Petrucci behind him to second in each race that favours Ducati he could head into Misano with a championship lead. Around this time is likely when Marquez will return, if Marquez is close to 100% holding him off and not having a Yamaha on the podium will be a huge help.
Misano - I would think advantage Yamaha but Ducati has also put some good results in at the circuit so this may be a 50/50
Catalunya - Advantage Dovi.
Le Mans - based on the past it should be advantage Dovi but I don't know if it will be that clear cut either.
Aragon - probably 50/50 but historically Dovi has done well here. If Marquez is 100% the race will be for second.
Valencia - Advantage the Yamaha boys. However Dovi did win here in 2018 so he could still get a decent result.
Other factors:
Rain - Dovi is arguably the best wet weather rider on the grid. You could argue between him and Marquez.
Consistency - Dovi historically has an advantage here. But quartararo is a bit of an unknown because last year was his rookie season. His constistency could be a key but only time will tell. Vinales' consistency is woeful and most likely will be the reason if he never wins a title
Double Ups:
Dovi works methodically so the double ups could be good for him. On the other hand if Vinales dials the Yamaha in well on the first race he will likely keep that advantage during the second race. Quartararo is still a bit of an unknown but as a young guy it can only be to his advantage and could allow him to do better the second time around if he has a bad weekend the first time around. I think it's probably worth mentioning if conditions change a fair bit between weekends it could cause Maverick some problems. He has been stuck a few times already not knowing why things that worked previously aren't working anymore.
Marquez:
If/when he comes back at almost 100% and starts competing for or winning races I think this favours Dovi. The other two have a huge hunger to beat Marquez and as happened to Vinales in PI last year could come unstuck trying to. Dovi on the other hand is more mature and will likely let Marquez go if Dovi is ahead of his championship rivals.
Changing/Difficult conditions: Slightly different to rain but advantage Dovi here. Fabio may be excellent in these kinds of conditions where its difficult but not really raining or a bike swap is required etc. Vinales is IIRC ......... in them.
So based on the above, I think Dovi is the best chance at this championship. There only seems to be Jerez on the calendar where Yamaha will retain, at least historically a bike advantage over him. Changing conditions from weekend to weekend could through Vinales in a spin. Quartararo is still IMO a bit of an unknown, yes he just got his first win but it was due to Marquez throwing it away and Vinales' tyre choice may have been a factor as well. He had inconsistency last year much the same as Maverick did but in his rookie year it's hard to evaluate whether that was because it was his rookie year or like Vinales' he needs everything to line up.
I don't see Jack having the consistency to really challenge for the title, I could see Miller given basically the same support as Dovi if Petrucci continues.
One last thing. The rear tyre edge grip has seemed to catch a few guys out already, obviously none as bad as Marquez but we did see Mav have a similar moment and I'm sure I noticed a couple more similar over the weekend. That could end up being a factor in itself, if things riders could get away with last year when the bike was leaned over are now a no-go we could see the return of the highside.
His second option is to use this year together with Honda to almost treat every session and race like a test. Sure try to get the best possible results during the race but work the whole season towards finding solutions for all of the Honda's short comings and set himself up for the next few season with a much improved and more rideable bike. He's a competitor and wont want to give this season away but by doing so he could almost guarantee himself the next 3 or 4. It seems with the way the testing and schedule is set up improvements made can give an advantage that last for more than a season while issues can take seasons to work out. Personally I try to make every misfortune an opportunity and I believe this is how Marquez could achieve that.
This has thrown the 2020 title wide open. I think the title race comes down to 3 guys, Dovi, Vinales and Quartararo. Jack Miller may be the wild card. I read that Rins has fractured his shoulder not just dislocated it so i think his chances at the title are probably done.
The season so far is:
Spain Jerez 19 Jul
Andalusia Jerez 26 Jul
Czech Republic Brno 9 Aug
Austria Red Bull Ring 16 Aug
Styria Red Bull Ring 23 Aug
San Marino Misano 13 Sep
Emilia Romagna Misano 20 Sep
Catalunya Catalunya 27 Sep
France Le Mans 11 Oct
Aragon Motorland 18 Oct
Teruel Motorland 25 Oct
Europe Valencia 8 Nov
Valencia Valencia 15 Nov
Looking at each race
Jerez = advantage Yamaha. Vinales made the wrong tyre choice so may win next time out. If Dovi can find himself on the podium next weekend then he will be looking pretty good heading into Brno and Austria.
Brno & Austria = Advantage Dovi and Ducati. If Dovi can win 2 or 3 races here and pull Jack or Petrucci behind him to second in each race that favours Ducati he could head into Misano with a championship lead. Around this time is likely when Marquez will return, if Marquez is close to 100% holding him off and not having a Yamaha on the podium will be a huge help.
Misano - I would think advantage Yamaha but Ducati has also put some good results in at the circuit so this may be a 50/50
Catalunya - Advantage Dovi.
Le Mans - based on the past it should be advantage Dovi but I don't know if it will be that clear cut either.
Aragon - probably 50/50 but historically Dovi has done well here. If Marquez is 100% the race will be for second.
Valencia - Advantage the Yamaha boys. However Dovi did win here in 2018 so he could still get a decent result.
Other factors:
Rain - Dovi is arguably the best wet weather rider on the grid. You could argue between him and Marquez.
Consistency - Dovi historically has an advantage here. But quartararo is a bit of an unknown because last year was his rookie season. His constistency could be a key but only time will tell. Vinales' consistency is woeful and most likely will be the reason if he never wins a title
Double Ups:
Dovi works methodically so the double ups could be good for him. On the other hand if Vinales dials the Yamaha in well on the first race he will likely keep that advantage during the second race. Quartararo is still a bit of an unknown but as a young guy it can only be to his advantage and could allow him to do better the second time around if he has a bad weekend the first time around. I think it's probably worth mentioning if conditions change a fair bit between weekends it could cause Maverick some problems. He has been stuck a few times already not knowing why things that worked previously aren't working anymore.
Marquez:
If/when he comes back at almost 100% and starts competing for or winning races I think this favours Dovi. The other two have a huge hunger to beat Marquez and as happened to Vinales in PI last year could come unstuck trying to. Dovi on the other hand is more mature and will likely let Marquez go if Dovi is ahead of his championship rivals.
Changing/Difficult conditions: Slightly different to rain but advantage Dovi here. Fabio may be excellent in these kinds of conditions where its difficult but not really raining or a bike swap is required etc. Vinales is IIRC ......... in them.
So based on the above, I think Dovi is the best chance at this championship. There only seems to be Jerez on the calendar where Yamaha will retain, at least historically a bike advantage over him. Changing conditions from weekend to weekend could through Vinales in a spin. Quartararo is still IMO a bit of an unknown, yes he just got his first win but it was due to Marquez throwing it away and Vinales' tyre choice may have been a factor as well. He had inconsistency last year much the same as Maverick did but in his rookie year it's hard to evaluate whether that was because it was his rookie year or like Vinales' he needs everything to line up.
I don't see Jack having the consistency to really challenge for the title, I could see Miller given basically the same support as Dovi if Petrucci continues.
One last thing. The rear tyre edge grip has seemed to catch a few guys out already, obviously none as bad as Marquez but we did see Mav have a similar moment and I'm sure I noticed a couple more similar over the weekend. That could end up being a factor in itself, if things riders could get away with last year when the bike was leaned over are now a no-go we could see the return of the highside.
