Last hope for Valentino...2012

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RussF1 said:
Looking at it dispassionately, I do not think a win this year should be out of the question. The latter half of the season coincides with when Stoner went on a successful run last year and had a few good wins. So given a bit more improvement on the ducati between now and then, one could reasonably assume Rossi/Hayden should be at least fighting for a podium in Aragon, Sepang or more specifically in Phillip Island.



If you look at the absolute dominance of Stoner/Ducati at PI last year (even Hayden was competitive), you would have to think that with some more development between now and then, given the way the Ducati suits that track so well, Rossi & crew must have penciled that one in early in the year as a real opportunity to score a big result (ie, snag a win), and failing any further development steps, they should at least default to a real podium chance. Obviously Stoner suits the track quite well as well, so would probably stand between Rossi and a surprise win, all things being normal.



Given the way the season has gone thus far, they obviously would be reluctant to talk up their chances until they get there and confirm their performance, but I for one would think it's not unreasonable to be expecting big things from both ducati riders at that round.
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Are u being completely sarcastic?
 
Badfish said:
Stoner era? Don't be surprised if he retires in a year or two. Now that his missus is pregnant and kid's on the way,he will probably disappear back to his farm.
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I've had the same thought when I heard about Adriana being pregnant. It just might happen. I call fan-dips on Folger, Bradl and Davies in that case.



Badfish said:
I think Ducati are going to have come up with some thing pretty radical for Rossi to be competitive in 2012. Some one mentioned Rossi age but really don't think thats going to slow him down, probably be more worried about his mental state, can or will he bounce back.
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Exactly.
 
Evolution said:
Yes sure. Rossi was in good position for the title in 2010 just as well as Pedro was this year. Its not like saying that Crutch or RdP could have taken the title technically this year. You know it and everyone knows it. Dont let your hate cloud your posts.
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I hate hate haters.



Also, Evo, you're wrong.
 
McKneZ said:
I was thinking this for a long time... its my theory.



People around Vale and him self knew that it was very risky going to Ducati and the situation was kinda perfect a year ago...thinking about courent position in Yamaha and Stoner on Honda for future. But some of us were still optimistic for this year. The bike was the biggest risk....but 1 year testing while Yama and Honda are getting already too far...is perfect in my theory. Ducati have a great engine and can do the right job...and there is no pressure from teammate... so with the little luck , Rossi can again have equal if not the best bike...to play again with the field and win 1 or 2 championships 2012 onward and retire on a high....



This year's bike is just not capable of winning with Rossi save standards. Maybe Stoner could do it... but im not so sure.

If everything stayed the same i think... it would be again Vale vs Lore.... and Pedrosa would be third. This years bike is just to far away from Yama and Honda.



My point... he kinda knew all that will happen this year... so i think he is focusing just for a next years bike... and with this bike is just his testing year really. 2012 year is imo the last hope for a "suprise" season and a another championship win. He could do it... i hope they will be more equal in 2012 and that the bad performance from Rossi and the bike this year is just that...testisting year for 2012.



Can't imagine 2012 a faliure year for a ducati...like this year,....realy can't. It would be very frustrating for the vale fans and for the whole motogp lovers. And all you can say than is: goodbye Ducati...stick to WSBK.

Next year if he doesnt fight for the atleast podiums... than Ducati is not for him and not for anybody else...Stoner would also say no...im 100%.



So the title could be Last hope for Ducati... but people will miss Vale more
<




Noone would wannt this...



So lets hope for a great close racing in 2012! Even if Vale doesnt win
<






PS:Sry for my english (im a selflearner)
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Yeah. I'm pretty sure they paid him $15 million this year or whatever it is to be a test rider for Ducati this year. Psshhh. Ducati wanted results with Valentino this year...... he failed to deliver.
 
Tom said:
Rossi is great, but that does not mean he is immune to time, or questioning of his ability. Rossi has moved from the "very nice factory Yamaha" and he looks not better than average, so there is no reason to believe he is still a cut above Lorenzo like he once was. Quit living in the past and get with the times
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J4rn0 said:
It is difficult to judge Rossi's current level cause of the machinery gap he has to fill, and it has been difficult last year as well because of the injuries. It would be nice to find out if he could still be up there with Stoner and Lorenzo, on a competitive bike. I think so, and think he could mount a better challenge to Stoner -- clearly the dominant rider now -- than others. Lorenzo is a great rider but he's ridden only a very nice factory Yamaha so far, just like Pedro only ever rode a factory Honda. Somehow I cannot yet rank them among the truly great (where Stoner and Rossi already belong).
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From 2008 to 2010 the story went like:

Rossi: mentally the strongest rider in the field with the best development skills and the best racecraft.

Stoner: mentally far weaker with far worse development skills and a compulsive crasher.

Lorenzo: mentally strong and almost a match for Rossi in this area but he cant develop or even set up a bike without Rossi to copy. 2010 doesnt count because Rossi was injured.



Now in 2011 we have:

Stoner is either mentally the strongest and best development rider with equal racecraft of anyone OR he's lucky to have no injuries and a Honda which leaped foreward at just the right time.

Lorenzo still mentally stronger than Stoner (says Rossi) OR is now broken on the inferior Yamaha (winner of 3/4 800 titles). He just set the fastest time at Misano?http://motomatters.com/analysis/2011/09/02/2011_misano_friday_motogp_round_up_how_s.html

Rossi: simple its all Ducati's fault. No need to push he might fall off and get injured, he's achieved everything there is to achieve in Motogp OR he is just as mentally fragile as any other rider when things are against him and is 'sad' that he can't ride at least one bike as fast as the mentally weak Stoner.



Confusing or what. .... if things can change this fast, I may have to concede to Jumkie's (crazy?) theory that in the right place and right time Hayden could have been a multi time W/C!!!!!!!
 
michaelm said:
As someone who said the same thing about stoner in 2009 your opinion should be respected, and as it happens I agree anyway.



At the moment jorge and dani don't seem to believe stoner is beatable. Such lack of belief would not be a problem for valentino on a competitive bike.
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Thats a conundrum. Rossi lacks belief on the un-competitive Ducati, but would have more belief than Lorenzo on the Yamaha, the ride he left of his own free will. How much belief did Rossi maintain throughout 2007?



Stoner said reletively speaking its been bad luck for him, Lorenzo and Pedro to all come through at the same time career wise. This is because they have and will continue to take w/c titles from each other on a regular basis. Still thats exactly what I wanted (following the Rossi years). Another possible goldern era. They all still believe they can beat each other, they are all champions. Its not Biaggi and Sete vs Rossi anymore.
 
birdman said:
From 2008 to 2010 the story went like:

Rossi: mentally the strongest rider in the field with the best development skills and the best racecraft. No on all counts given what we knew of the Ducati.

Stoner: mentally far weaker with far worse development skills and a compulsive crasher. No on all counts given what we knew of the Ducati.

Lorenzo: mentally strong and almost a match for Rossi in this area but he cant develop or even set up a bike without Rossi to copy. 2010 doesnt count because Rossi was injured. No on all counts given what we knew of the Ducati.



Now in 2011 we have:

Stoner is either mentally the strongest and best development rider with equal racecraft of anyone OR he's lucky to have no injuries and a Honda which leaped foreward at just the right time. Stoner always was the best of the 4 stroke era , its just that you Boppers were in denial about the Ducati.

Lorenzo still mentally stronger than Stoner (says Rossi) OR is now broken on the inferior Yamaha (winner of 3/4 800 titles). He just set the fastest time at Misano?http://motomatters.c...d_up_how_s.html



Rossi: simple its all Ducati's fault. No need to push he might fall off and get injured, he's achieved everything there is to achieve in Motogp OR he is just as mentally fragile as any other rider when things are against him and is 'sad' that he can't ride at least one bike as fast as the mentally weak Stoner.



Confusing or what. .... if things can change this fast, I may have to concede to Jumkie's (crazy?) theory that in the right place and right time Hayden could have been a multi time W/C!!!!!!!
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What an absolute delusional truckload of bopper crap
<
 
birdman said:
Thats a conundrum. Rossi lacks belief on the un-competitive Ducati, but would have more belief than Lorenzo on the Yamaha, the ride he left of his own free will. How much belief did Rossi maintain throughout 2007?



Stoner said reletively speaking its been bad luck for him, Lorenzo and Pedro to all come through at the same time career wise. This is because they have and will continue to take w/c titles from each other on a regular basis. Still thats exactly what I wanted (following the Rossi years). Another possible goldern era. They all still believe they can beat each other, they are all champions. Its not Biaggi and Sete vs Rossi anymore.
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To become a little self righteous, unlike most of the people knocking rossi now, I kept posting regularly on here taking all the flak when things weren't going so well for stoner , as j4rno is doing rossi's current travails, so I have some sympathy for his position. I also endeavour to be logically consistent, and having blamed stoner's woes last year on the ducati and consistently argued that perceived faults in his riding were due to the ducati, I find it difficult to argue that rossi's tenure on the ducati proves his intrinsic mediocrity as some seem to be arguing, or that the ducati is not contributing significantly to his problems.



In my opinion what this year does prove is that what stoner did on the ducati was exceptional, and that rossi is not infinitely adaptable and that there does exist a bike he can't ride, being like everyone else unable to replicate stoner's unique method, the only way of riding the ducati 800 bike ever associated with race winning pace.



I enjoyed the schadenfeude of the ducati not proving to be quite what valentino expected after the "fix in 80 seconds" and "not pushing hard enough" comments as much as the next stoner fan, particularly since his situation is entirely of his own creation as you say. However, enough is enough, and this year does not negate his overwhelming success on every other bike he has ever ridden (6 different bikes for 3 different manufacturers by my count), and he won a race beating a then rampant jorge lorenzo and the rest of the field whilst still injured less than a full season ago. He still looked to have a minor edge on jorge in his last full season without injury, not that it wasn't his business to remain uninjured if he wanted to beat jorge last year.



I actually agree that rossi is not pushing as hard as he could on the ducati, but imo this is because he does not have a winning chance no matter how hard he pushes, and stoner pushing hard enough to win last year involved a 50% dnf rate; that he was still willing to push imo again says more about stoner ( particularly to those wont to call him a .....) than it does about rossi.



It is also only my opinion, but I am entirely confident that rossi on a factory honda or yamaha would be competing for a podium every race, would be beating pedrosa and competitive with stoner and lorenzo; whether he would be beating the latter two in the championship is more difficult to know, they are both obviously younger, hard charging and of quite elite quality as riders as everyone is saying, but I am not as sure as some that he wouldn't be beating them.



The 2007 season is actually rather relevant, stoner on the ducati was unbeatable that year, but rossi lit a fire under yamaha and came back in 2008 and rode sublimely to win fairly handily. Similarly, stoner actually wasn't mentally broken by laguna seca 2008 as was widely argued (and always disputed by me at least) and is now proving this on different/better equipment.
 
michaelm said:
To become a little self righteous, unlike most of the people knocking rossi now, I kept posting regularly on here taking all the flak when things weren't going so well for stoner , as j4rno is doing rossi's current travails, so I have some sympathy for his position. I also endeavour to be logically consistent, and having blamed stoner's woes last year on the ducati and consistently argued that perceived faults in his riding were due to the ducati, I find it difficult to argue that rossi's tenure on the ducati proves his intrinsic mediocrity as some seem to be arguing, or that the ducati is not contributing significantly to his problems.



In my opinion what this year proves is that what stoner did on the ducati was exceptional, and that rossi is not infinitely adaptable and that there does exist a bike he can't ride, being like everyone else unable to replicate stoner's unique method, the only way of riding the ducati 800 bike ever associated with race winning pace.



I enjoyed the schadenfeude of the ducati not proving to be quite what valentino expected after the "fix in 60 seconds" and "not pushing hard enough" comments as much as the next stoner fan, particularly since his situation is entirely of his own creation as you say. However, enough is enough, and this year does not negate his overwhelming success on every other bike he has ever ridden (6 different bikes for 3 different manufacturers by my count), and he won a race beating a then rampant jorge lorenzo and the rest of the field whilst still injured less than a full season ago. He still looked to have a minor edge on jorge in his last full season without injury, not that it wasn't his business to remain uninjured if he wanted to beat jorge last year.



I actually agree that rossi is not pushing as hard as he could on the ducati, but imo this is because he does not have a winning chance no matter how hard he pushes, and stoner pushing hard enough to win last year involved a 50% dnf rate; that he was still willing to push again imo says more about stoner ( particularly to those whose wont is/was to call him a .....) than it does about rossi.



It is only my opinion, but I am entirely confident that rossi on a factory honda or yamaha would be competing for a podium every race, would be beating pedrosa and competitive with stoner and lorenzo; whether he would be beating the latter two in the championship is more difficult to know, they are both obviously younger, hard charging and of elite quality as riders as everyone is saying, but I am not as sure as some that he wouldn't be beating them.



The 2007 season is actually rather relevant, stoner on the ducati was unbeatable that year, but rossi lit a fire under yamaha and came back in 2008 and rode sublimely to win fairly handily. Similarly, stoner actually wasn't mentally broken by laguna seca 2008 as was widely argued (and always disputed by me at least) and is now proving this on different/better equipment.
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Yeah I get all that ability, riding, bikes, styles, quality etc etc. Of course Rossi has the ability. It would be futile to try and argue otherwise. Im more interested in the belief as you eluded to. Does Lorenzo have the belief? I say yes. Year 2008 on the Michelins is an example. To push until suffering two broken ankles, not give up, come back, push more until winning his first race against Rossi and co. is impressive. He must have a lot of belief.



For Stoner remove the influence of Pedro or more specifically Puig, the gay sorry guy who helped him out so much with the KTM ride. What happens then? No Puig influence might mean Stoner gets a factory Honda ride much sooner, rather than a KTM, 250cc privateer Aprilia, LCR privateer Honda, and of course a Ducati. How many potential w/c would he have then?



So who out of all the w/c riders in motogp would you say have the belief in themselves to take the Stoner career path claim to fame. I say Pedro no, Lorenzo yes, Rossi before Ducati yes, at the moment not sure? Hayden no, Simmo no.



Now throw in another name. Doohan. No matter what bike, what circumstance I nominate Doohan yes. The same belief and determination he used to overcome the almost impossible with injuries and hardship. Winning when winning is possible I understand. Pushing on when winning seems impossible is something else. These are the guys who are very special to me, at least in my biased opinion.
 
michaelm said:
To become a little self righteous, unlike most of the people knocking rossi now, I kept posting regularly on here taking all the flak when things weren't going so well for stoner , as j4rno is doing rossi's current travails, so I have some sympathy for his position. I also endeavour to be logically consistent, and having blamed stoner's woes last year on the ducati and consistently argued that perceived faults in his riding were due to the ducati, I find it difficult to argue that rossi's tenure on the ducati proves his intrinsic mediocrity as some seem to be arguing, or that the ducati is not contributing significantly to his problems.
Click to expand...



I think you're missing the point to some extend. I don't argue that Rossi is intrinsically mediocre, or deny that the ducati is significantly contributing to his problems, and I don't see many others making those arguments. The point is this, speaking for myself at least: Rossi has been confronted with his own mortality in a very brutal way; first being beaten by his team mate, then being utterly unable to replicate the performance of his Australian nemesis on the ducati, while said Aussie took off to Honda and has dominated the field since then. To consider Rossi the very best rider ever on a bike was almost axiomatic not too long ago, now other stars are shining.

Now, what I'm saying and what I believe others are saying, is that these circumstances must be very hard too swallow for Rossi, and that it is unlikely (but not impossible) that he will ever fully recover mentally from two seasons of being not only beaten, but publicly humiliated.



To qualify this somewhat, I'll tell you that not too long ago, I feared the same about Stoner. He came back guns blazing, so there's always hope.



I know you're doing your best to be objective and fair micheal, but I think that by being too quick to frame any kind of opinion about Rossi that isn't positive as 'kicking a man when he's down' or the ever popular 'hating' (I know these aren't your exact words), you're actually contributing to the polarization. Ever heard of the Tomas theorem (if not, google it, it is a bit of sociological theory that is still very useful in everyday life)?



michaelm said:
In my opinion what this year does prove is that what stoner did on the ducati was exceptional, and that rossi is not infinitely adaptable and that there does exist a bike he can't ride, being like everyone else unable to replicate stoner's unique method, the only way of riding the ducati 800 bike ever associated with race winning pace.



I enjoyed the schadenfeude of the ducati not proving to be quite what valentino expected after the "fix in 80 seconds" and "not pushing hard enough" comments as much as the next stoner fan, particularly since his situation is entirely of his own creation as you say. However, enough is enough, and this year does not negate his overwhelming success on every other bike he has ever ridden (6 different bikes for 3 different manufacturers by my count), and he won a race beating a then rampant jorge lorenzo and the rest of the field whilst still injured less than a full season ago. He still looked to have a minor edge on jorge in his last full season without injury, not that it wasn't his business to remain uninjured if he wanted to beat jorge last year.



I actually agree that rossi is not pushing as hard as he could on the ducati, but imo this is because he does not have a winning chance no matter how hard he pushes, and stoner pushing hard enough to win last year involved a 50% dnf rate; that he was still willing to push imo again says more about stoner ( particularly to those wont to call him a .....) than it does about rossi.



It is also only my opinion, but I am entirely confident that rossi on a factory honda or yamaha would be competing for a podium every race, would be beating pedrosa and competitive with stoner and lorenzo; whether he would be beating the latter two in the championship is more difficult to know, they are both obviously younger, hard charging and of quite elite quality as riders as everyone is saying, but I am not as sure as some that he wouldn't be beating them.



The 2007 season is actually rather relevant, stoner on the ducati was unbeatable that year, but rossi lit a fire under yamaha and came back in 2008 and rode sublimely to win fairly handily. Similarly, stoner actually wasn't mentally broken by laguna seca 2008 as was widely argued (and always disputed by me at least) and is now proving this on different/better equipment.
Click to expand...



This is were we simply differ in opinion. To me, it really does look like Rossi lost some of his old fighting spirit in the last 4-5 races. And although I think he could challenge for the podium and occasional wins on a Honda or Yamaha, I believe Stoner and Lorenzo would outclass him at the moment. Except of course, if he could find some way to exploit some strategic advantage in the machine or tire department.
 
I would agree that Rossi has not been fighting much after Mugello. He seems resigned. He tried harder in the first part of the season, when he seemed more positive and coming to grips with the Ducati, especially at Catalunya. The failure of the GP11.1 seems to have left him kind of dejected. It is clear by now that he cannot steer the rear a la Stoner; he is a front wheel rider and a supreme one at that, unfortunately for him there seems to be no way this Ducati can be ridden that hard on the front.



There have been rumors for some time now of a split in the Ducati garage between Preziosi and the Ducati core team on one side, and Rossi & JB on the other. Preziosi would like to develop the current GP12 for next year, while Rossi's team wants to go the way of a more traditional bike. This is producing a compromise in the form of running the two projects in parallel and see later what to choose -- but Rossi and JB would prefer a firm decision now. They are not very happy. Neither is Preziosi.



Preziosi even said the other day that if possible he would be curious to see Stoner testing the GP12! That was immediately reported to Rossi, who said "Yes, why not, but then I would like to test the Honda!". All this was said smiling, but one could be justified in perceiving a growing unease in the Ducati camp. Then the exchange was inevitably reported to Stoner, who jumped on the occasion saying he doesn't believe the current Ducati can be that bad, that he tested the CF against the aluminum and CF is better, that he's still in very good terms with Preziosi, and so on. Hmmmm...
<




In a nutshell, I think Ducati's hesitations in taking a firm decision to go the way Rossi is indicating for next year (a twin spar aluminum frame), could be responsible for Rossi's apparent lack of motivation. I'm watching FP3 now and Rossi is 12th, Barbera 7th. Rossi looks like he's cruising around the track...
 
J4rn0 said:
I would agree that Rossi has not been fighting much after Mugello. He seems resigned. He tried harder in the first part of the season, when he seemed more positive and coming to grips with the Ducati, especially at Catalunya. The failure of the GP11.1 seems to have left him kind of dejected. It is clear by now that he cannot steer the rear a la Stoner; he is a front wheel rider and a supreme one at that, unfortunately for him there seems to be no way this Ducati can be ridden that hard on the front.



There have been rumors for some time now of a split in the Ducati garage between Preziosi and the Ducati core team on one side, and Rossi & JB on the other. Preziosi would like to develop the current GP12 for next year, while Rossi's team wants to go the way of a more traditional bike. This is producing a compromise in the form of running the two projects in parallel and see later what to choose -- but Rossi and JB would prefer a firm decision now. They are not very happy. Neither is Preziosi.



Preziosi even said the other day that if possible he would be curious to see Stoner testing the GP12! That was immediately reported to Rossi, who said "Yes, why not, but then I would like to test the Honda!". All this was said smiling, but one could be justified in perceiving a growing unease in the Ducati field. Then the exchange was inevitably reported to Stoner, who jumped on the occasion saying he doesn't believe the current Ducati can be that bad, that he tested the CF against the aluminum and CF is better, that he's still in very good terms with Preziosi, and so on. Hmmmm...
<




In a nutshell, I think Ducati's hesitations in taking a firm decision to go the way Rossi is indicating for next year (a twin spar aluminum frame), could be responsible for Rossi's apparent lack of motivation. I'm watching FP3 now and Rossi is 12th, Barbera 7th. Rossi looks like he's cruising around the track...
Click to expand...



I do not think Rossi would do well on Stoner's Honda. The power would be too aggressive, it would be too stiff and their would be too few electronics. It would take Rossi some time to turn it back into a tame bike that suits his style.



I have no doubt that Ducati are very disappointed they let Stoner get away and have similar levels of doubt that they grow tired of the lack of effort that Rossi appears to be putting in. I have a strong feeling that Hayden's bike and requests will see some attention between now and the end of the season and a series of better results coming as a result. Getting beaten by his team mate will either lead to a huge dummy spit or a resurgent effort from Rossi.
 
Mental Anarchist said:
I have no doubt that Ducati are very disappointed they let Stoner get away and have similar levels of doubt that they grow tired of the lack of effort that Rossi appears to be putting in. I have a strong feeling that Hayden's bike and requests will see some attention between now and the end of the season and a series of better results coming as a result. Getting beaten by his team mate will either lead to a huge dummy spit or a resurgent effort from Rossi.
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I was wondering how Ducati could save face ........ that would work! .
 
Wonder what Ducati's offer will be to Stoner during silly season next year? 20million Euro + have Marlboro's CEO kneel down before him and kiss his arse?
 
Save face? How? By arriving 6th or 7th with Hayden and Barbera, while Valentino Rossi cruises to 12th? That's suicide. I think Ducati would do better to follow Rossi and JB wholeheartedly for a couple of years, and see what comes out; but the engineer-driven DNA of the company seems to have trouble doing that, as it would mean converting to a rider-driven approach. Sure, they have been speaking about following Rossi's and JB leads a lot, but now that the legendary duo are asking them to bin the current design entirely, rather than just tweaking it, Preziosi and his team seem hesitant to the point of having afterthoughts. They probably never thought it would come to this.



But do they have an alternative? Stoner is gone for good, with his entire crew. It's next to impossible finding another Stoner, and even if they still had Casey now, with the single tire and the six engines rule working effectively against that peculiar design of the Desmosedici, their decline would continue inesorably. Time to move on and make a new bike, without looking back. I'm not sure about what they are going to decide though.



EDIT: I just heard that next week Rossi is going to test the 1000 at Mugello, wit a new aluminum frame (but not a twin spar full one, probably just a version of the present sub-frame, maybe extended a bit).
 
J4rn0 said:
But do they have an alternative? Stoner is gone for good, with his entire crew. It's next to impossible finding another Stoner,
Click to expand...



They could scour the short circuits ( flat dirt tracks ) of NSW and see what they can find ........ they found Bayliss and Stoner ....... they were from within that area and demographic.



Vermulen?
 
People talking about Rossi being past it are just the ones who are desperate to see him leave MotoGP. All this crap about 'we need to look to the future' is disengenuous to say the least. The likes of Bradl and Marquez will get their chance soon enough regardless of what Rossi does.



If on competitive machinery of course Rossi would be winning races. As for Lorenzo, he had a great year in 2010, but only really beat Rossi in two of first three races. Does anyone really think some of these posters would be saying Lorenzo beat Stoner last year if it had been Stoner who broke his leg mid-season?
 
Nino said:
People talking about Rossi being past it are just the ones who are desperate to see him leave MotoGP. All this crap about 'we need to look to the future' is disengenuous to say the least. The likes of Bradl and Marquez will get their chance soon enough regardless of what Rossi does.



If on competitive machinery of course Rossi would be winning races. As for Lorenzo, he had a great year in 2010, but only really beat Rossi in two of first three races. Does anyone really think some of these posters would be saying Lorenzo beat Stoner last year if it had been Stoner who broke his leg mid-season?
Click to expand...



Yes.

The assumption that they wouldn't does say something about you though.
 

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