JEREZ QUALIFYING

Statistically, Stoner is the best wet weather rider since he has been in the series. He wont take any big chances, but i expect him to be vying for the win. What he is saying is you cant win the title this weekend, but you can sure as hell lose it. I saw where Rossi 's team is doing the math on coming in for new tires,- as opposed to staying out on worn out out rubber if conditions are mixed. Him and Stoner both are saying the wet tire is shredded after 10 or so laps if its not completely wet.

hawkdriver said:

No sense risking it at his bogey track or running at the front with guys who are going to be taking huge risk if it's wet.

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Agreed. Which is why I asked Jumkie how Stoner's statement (if this is what he is referring to) could be construed as "odd". Its a very long season and there is no point risking injury in a bid to win under those circumstances - especially considering JLo and Dani are serious title contenders this year (as they were last year).

povol said:

Statistically, Stoner is the best wet weather rider since he has been in the series. He wont take any big chances, but i expect him to be vying for the win. What he is saying is you cant win the title this weekend, but you can sure as hell lose it. I saw where Rossi 's team is doing the math on coming in for new tires,- as opposed to staying out on worn out out rubber if conditions are mixed. Him and Stoner both are saying the wet tire is shredded after 10 or so laps if its not completely wet.

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Apparently Jorge was also very pissed about the wet tyres durability after FP yesterday....doesnt believe they will last even half race distance.

Jumkie said:

Ah, so maybe you should drop a FB post to VR, since he said they don't know why the Duc behaves like this in the rain in contrast to the dry. You solved the mystery buddy. Rossi said that last year's bike (800) was also competitive in wet conditions (though I could barely detect this "competitiveness" from my cold and wet vantage point at Silverstone last year), and he was pleased to confirm it once again, though he was at a loss to explain why the bike doesn't perform as well in the dry. (See post practice interview)



Nicky offered an explanation:



“We tried to understand why in real rain we had a bike that was fast,” said Hayden. “We used to think with the carbon chassis that in the dry we were too stiff and our theory was that the stiffness actually helps to heat the tyre more, because in the rain you don't always want something real soft.



“Even with suspension you think you need to soften it up, but when you do that the wet tyres don't push into the ground and they don't push through the puddles and you don't generate the heat and work the tyres.”



Nicky's under the impression it has something to do with putting heat into the tires. Being that they are using aluminum now, it seems the new bike continues to does this same thing well provided its in wet conditions.





On a related note, Nicky also mentioned he didn't want to tear up too many tires since they were limited. So then, the question I have is, will Bridgestone ever provide an intermediates for these patchy (non-rain/non-dry) conditions? Will Dorna or the riders ever push for it? Wtf.

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From Motomatters:



The other problem is clearly one of power delivery. The engine is too aggressive, and this makes managing the throttle through the corners quite a handful. Too much electronic intervention is required to tame the power delivery, and this is interfering with the connection between the rider's right wrist and the power at the back wheel. The reason the bike improves massively in the wet is because the engine never really gets into its power band, the bike spinning up well before the engine turns vicious. Andrea Dovizioso put it very well, when he said "the best riders in the wet are the ones that use the least throttle." Gentle, smooth, coaxing the bike forward is the way to go in the wet. Once the track dries, and the wet mapping cutting power by 20-odd percent is replaced with the full-fat fire-breathing one, the bike once again becomes unmanageable.

Mick D said:

From Motomatters:



The other problem is clearly one of power delivery. The engine is too aggressive, and this makes managing the throttle through the corners quite a handful. Too much electronic intervention is required to tame the power delivery, and this is interfering with the connection between the rider's right wrist and the power at the back wheel. The reason the bike improves massively in the wet is because the engine never really gets into its power band, the bike spinning up well before the engine turns vicious. Andrea Dovizioso put it very well, when he said "the best riders in the wet are the ones that use the least throttle." Gentle, smooth, coaxing the bike forward is the way to go in the wet. Once the track dries, and the wet mapping cutting power by 20-odd percent is replaced with the full-fat fire-breathing one, the bike once again becomes unmanageable.

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The part you quoted above started with this:



"The problem is, though, that Ducati do not understand exactly why they are so fast in the wet, while they continue to struggle in the dry."



Sure, they are throwing up possible explanations, as did Nicky, as did Rossi, as did Kropo above, but...read again "Ducati do not understand exactly why..." Apparently, J4rno does, hence why I said, maybe he should send VR a pm.

Jumkie said:

The part you quoted above started with this:



"The problem is, though, that Ducati do not understand exactly why they are so fast in the wet, while they continue to struggle in the dry."



Sure, they are throwing up possible explanations, as did Nicky, as did Rossi, as did Kropo above, but...read again "Ducati do not understand exactly why..." Apparently, J4rno does, hence why I said, maybe he should send VR a pm.

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My understanding of whats been said on the matter is they do not understand why there is, relatively, much better front end feel in the wet. The disappearance of power delivery issues when power is cut for rain does not seem to be a mystery at all... Logically, to me, it seems that the Duc is fine, even really good, at 8/10ths but a raging handful at 10/10ths where power delivery and front-end issues rear their ugly heads. The mystery is how to make the bike behave as well at 10/10ths - every bike builder's conundrum!

Mr Squiggle said:

I assume you are referring to his statement that the championship would not be decided by winning the Jerez race this weekend. If so in what way is that "odd"?

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In the post practice interview, the question was posed to him in regard to his comments leading up to the weekend; the interviewer says "you've almost dismissed the possibility of a win by talking about never needing to win here..." Stoner's response sounded very defeatist to me. He goes on to say whatever result he gets at Jerez it doesn't have much bearing on the rest of his season, to me confirming the acquiescent tenor in the question being asked. As he’s talking, its felt like he catches himself and for the viewers benefit goes through the motions of saying he tries to win whether he likes it or not, blab la bla, with little to no conviction. He also says he would have a much better opportunity in the dry. His tone sounded resigned to whatever is in store for him at Jerez rather than expressing a resolve to push for a win. I thought it was 'odd' given that he is such a great wet weather rider for him to sound a bit resigned to whatever he is dealt, rather than making it happen. Here, in terrible wet conditions last year, he was making good progress in the race, and in Silverstone, in even worse conditions, he was untouchable, this while Lorenzo crashed. This idea of a "bogey" track should be ........ to him, in the sense that he is fast, was fastest in testing just a couple of months ago, and there should be no reason why its considered a "bogey track unless he accepts the ........ label that others and himself may have created for him physiologically.



But I’m sure you'll interpret his words quiet differently…

.

Mick D said:

My understanding of whats been said on the matter is they do not understand why there is, relatively, much better front end feel in the wet. The disappearance of power delivery issues when power is cut for rain does not seem to be a mystery at all... Logically, to me, it seems that the Duc is fine, even really good, at 8/10ths but a raging handful at 10/10ths where power delivery and front-end issues rear their ugly heads. The mystery is how to make the bike behave as well at 10/10ths - every bike builder's conundrum!

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Yes, but J4rno said he had solved the mystery, so I sarcastically said, well then, you should FB Rossi your eureka moment. Again, both factory riders hypothesized it was the behavior of the suspension favorably heating up the tire rather auspiciously. That power need be finessed in the rain is hardly an inscrutable issue.

Jumkie said:

In the post practice interview, the question was posed to him in regard to his comments leading up to the weekend; the interviewer says "you've almost dismissed the possibility of a win by talking about never needing to win here..." Stoner's response sounded very defeatist to me. He goes on to say whatever result he gets it doesn't have much bearing on the rest of his season. As he’s talking, it like he catches himself and for the viewers benefit goes through the motions of saying he tries to win whether he likes it or not, blab la bla, with little to no conviction. He also says he would have a much better opportunity in the dry. His tone sounded resigned to whatever is in store for him at Jerez rather than expressing a resolve to push for a win. I thought it was 'odd' given that he is such a great wet weather rider for him to sound a bit resigned to whatever he is dealt, rather than making it happen. Here, in terrible wet conditions last year, he was making good progress in the race, and in Silverstone, in even worse conditions, he was untouchable, this while Lorenzo crashed. This idea of a "bogey" track should be ........ to him, in the sense that he is fast, was fastest in testing just a couple of months ago, and there should be no reason why its considered a "bogey track unless he accepts the ........ label that others and himself may have created for him physiologically.



But I’m sure you'll interpret his words quiet differently…

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A very fair and reasonable response....and then you go spoil it with your last comment. To be honest it is the reason I dont engage with you much these days as you seem to always want to attack someone or have some sort of dig for no good reason.



I hadnt seen the entire interview which is why I asked the question of you....

Jumkie said:

This idea of a "bogey" track should be ........ to him, in the sense that he is fast, was fastest in testing just a couple of months ago

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Fastest in the dry Jerez test, not so much in the wet.



Being calm is a good thing.

Mr Squiggle said:

A very fair and reasonable response....and then you go spoil it with your last comment. To be honest it is the reason I dont engage with you much these days as you seem to always want to attack someone or have some sort of dig for no good reason.



I hadnt seen the entire interview which is why I asked the question of you....

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Likewise.



Anyway, what is your interpretation of his comments, as saying they will differ to mine wouldn't be quite far fetched lately?

Beef Supreme said:

Fastest in the dry Jerez test, not so much in the wet. Being calm is a good thing.

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True, but I didn't sense "calm" but rather 'resignation'. Its of no real value to discuss except on meaningless forums such as this, but as somebody once said, the things we all debate are not very important, its just a matter of life and death.

Jumkie said:

Likewise.



Anyway, what is your interpretation of his comments, as saying they will differ to mine wouldn't be quite far fetched?

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I have only seen the sound bites from the interview not the entire interview so I cant really give you an informed comment....but from what I read I stated my opinion above......



[font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]"Its a very long season and there is no point risking injury in a bid to win under those circumstances - especially considering JLo and Dani are serious title contenders this year (as they were last year)."[/font]

Mr Squiggle said:

I have only seen the sound bites from the interview not the entire interview so I cant really give you an informed comment....but from what I read I stated my opinion above......



[font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]"Its a very long season and there is no point risking injury in a bid to win under those circumstances - especially considering JLo and Dani are serious title contenders this year (as they were last year)."[/font]

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But its ok for JLo and Dani to "risk"? The lesson from Qatar is, they all are gonna need to fight for wins, in wet, dry, wind, etc. Again, I thought his resignation was odd for him being the fastest during testing and knowing his wet race credentials. ...., he risked securing the title under crap last lap conditions last year. Not sure why suddenly its ok for him to declare a win is not necessary just because its predicted to rain. I didn't even consider he was just down playing the race for the benefit of relieving pressure or lowering expectations from last race's upset, as he doesn't seem to play the media with such savvy as say when Valentino did at Laguna upon return from leg injury (when Kenny Roberts Senior called him out with "yeah right, ........").

Jumkie said:

But its ok for JLo and Dani to "risk"? The lesson from Qatar is, they all are gonna need to fight for wins, in wet, dry, wind, etc. Again, I thought his resignation was odd for him being the fastest during testing and knowing his wet race credentials. ...., he risked securing the title under crap last lap conditions last year. Not sure why suddenly its ok for him to declare a win is not necessary just because its predicted to rain. I didn't even consider he was just down playing the race for the benefit of relieving pressure or lowering expectations from last race's upset, as he doesn't seem to play the media with such savvy as say when Valentino did at Laguna upon return from leg injury (when Kenny Roberts Senior called him out with "yeah right, ........").

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Every rider on the grid must weigh up the risk/reward ratio and it is different for every individual on the grid. If Stoner feels he can win on the day I am sure he will go for it....if not better to look at the bigger picture. I am sure if Rossi has any chance to get on the podium he will be far more willing to risk "everything" than those riders who are looking to secure points for a title challenge.



You honestly believe all riders look at a single race win as the defining moment in their championship aspirations? Sounds pretty daft to me....unless it comes down to the final race of the year and then all bets are off as OBVIOUSLY they will risk it all to finish ahead of their rival....2006 being a perfect example.

Jumkie said:

In the post practice interview, the question was posed to him in regard to his comments leading up to the weekend; the interviewer says "you've almost dismissed the possibility of a win by talking about never needing to win here..." Stoner's response sounded very defeatist to me. He goes on to say whatever result he gets at Jerez it doesn't have much bearing on the rest of his season, to me confirming the acquiescent tenor in the question being asked. As he’s talking, its felt like he catches himself and for the viewers benefit goes through the motions of saying he tries to win whether he likes it or not, blab la bla, with little to no conviction. He also says he would have a much better opportunity in the dry. His tone sounded resigned to whatever is in store for him at Jerez rather than expressing a resolve to push for a win. I thought it was 'odd' given that he is such a great wet weather rider for him to sound a bit resigned to whatever he is dealt, rather than making it happen. Here, in terrible wet conditions last year, he was making good progress in the race, and in Silverstone, in even worse conditions, he was untouchable, this while Lorenzo crashed. This idea of a "bogey" track should be ........ to him, in the sense that he is fast, was fastest in testing just a couple of months ago, and there should be no reason why its considered a "bogey track unless he accepts the ........ label that others and himself may have created for him physiologically.



But I’m sure you'll interpret his words quiet differently…

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He's just being realistic based on his record at jerez and at the same time I see it as a way to reassure himself in case it does rain and he takes less risk on the track. If he doesn't have a great race it isn't the end of the world, no need to put any pressure on himself the season is just getting started and he has plenty of strong tracks coming. How does the joke about the old and young bull go again.

hawkdriver said:

He's just being realistic based on his record at jerez and at the same time I see it as a way to reassure himself in case it does rain and he takes less risk on the track. If he doesn't have a great race it isn't the end of the world, no need to put any pressure on himself the season is just getting started and he has plenty of strong tracks coming. How does the joke about the old and young bull go again.

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Perhaps. Just thought it was odd of him to say it out loud in a resigned kind of way. Anyway, its of no consequence except in the realm of powerslide analysis. The race is still on Sunday right?

Mr Squiggle said:

You honestly believe all riders look at a single race win as the defining moment in their championship aspirations? Sounds pretty daft to me....unless it comes down to the final race of the year...

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No, but dismissing one before the race IS daft. Hence why I thought the comment was odd. Either way, if he does settle for podium instead of the win, it may be a case of no harm no foul. Time will tell.

Jumkie said:

No, but dismissing one before the race IS daft. Hence why I thought the comment was odd. Either way, if he does settle for podium instead of the win, it may be a case of no harm no foul. Time will tell.

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Look to Rossi's comments pre Laguna Seca 2008. He seemed to suggest he had no hope in stopping Stoner unless he had a gun. We all know what happened next.