Can Pedrosa mount a charge for the world title?

Pedrosa gets a huge win this week and gains 14 pts on Stoner and 25 pts on Vale.

The current standings are:

1. Stoner 196
2. Rossi 164
3. Pedrosa 144

Remaining circuits are Laguna, Brno, Misano, Estoril, Motegi, PI, Sepang, and Valencia. Pedro needs ~7 pts per circuit on Casey and ~3 points per on Valentino.

Laguna is Honda territory. Brno is Rossi/Ducati territory, Misano is who knows, Estoril is haunted by the ghost of every American motorcycle racer, Motegi is Ducati territory, PI is Stoner's home turf & Rossi territory, Sepang is Ducati/Rossi land, Valencia is up for grabs.


Q: Can Pedrosa make a serious bid for the title with so much unfriendly territory ahead of him? Where is he supposed to get wins on that schedule?

Q: Hayden loves Laguna, PI, Sepang, & Valencia. Plus, he might have something to prove at Estoril. Is Hayden going to win valuable championship points from Pedrosa now that he's fast again? or do you think Honda will tell him to back off?

Q: Casey is a great rider on great equipment, but can he actually make it an entire season without destroying one desmosedici on race day?

Wait isnt Misano replacing Estoril this year?

According to Motogp.com Estoril is the weekend after Misano (Sept. 16)

I thought Estoril was gone too, but it doesn't seem to be that way after all.

For him to win both Rossi and Stoner would have to crack and I can't see that happening! The michelins still have some way to go as well as the bridgestones have had it on them for most of the season. Can't see him coming any higher than third.

It is possible but will almost certainly require a Casey non score, which is possible. Dani is liable to win at any of the circuits left this year, so i'll be hoping he can reel in the gap (preferably without misfortune for others).

Yes it’s possible. And it is also probable, but not very likely. But if Stoner and Rossi took each other out, well new ball game, and its anybody of these three up for grabs.

I hope Pedrosa doesn't get close, Hayden's doesn't need more at the Repsol/Honda camp ignoring him.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Tom @ Jul 17 2007, 01:44 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>It is possible but will almost certainly require a Casey non score, which is possible. Dani is liable to win at any of the circuits left this year, so i'll be hoping he can reel in the gap (preferably without misfortune for others).

I agree.
The probablility that Stoner bins it or get a technical dnf is high, but for Pedrosa to encounter a similar problem is equally high.
So all in all it's not very likely he will win.
Bruno might be a turning point though. If Yamaha or Honda or both can get more grunt into their machines it will make Stoners charge harder. Even more so if Honda are able to distribute new engines to the customer teams as well. But Dani would probably need another dnf from Rossi as well to pass him. Rossi has allready stamped a heavy domination mark on Dani as he has passed Dani under braking more times than he has passed any other rider this season and every time he came out on top.

He dont stand a snowballs chance in hell,but could send a strong message for next year.

This is racing, so anything can happen.
52 points down isnt that much with 8 races to go, so yes its possible but..............

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Racejumkie @ Jul 17 2007, 12:49 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Yes it’s possible. And it is also probable, but not very likely. But if Stoner and Rossi took each other out, well new ball game, and its anybody of these three up for grabs.

I hope Pedrosa doesn't get close, Hayden's doesn't need more at the Repsol/Honda camp ignoring him.

It is very possible with 8 races left, and really Dani is Honda only shot at the title...Melandri, Hayden, Nakano, Checa and Duhamel (or other replacement) all have NO shot at the 2008 title, so Honda should throw all their resources at helping Dani, and I am sure AP will make sure they do just that...

Hayden will make a few good shows, but his title defense pretty much ended in April and so Honda has little choice but to ignore him. Nicky can only help Dani win the title, so the rest of 2007 is Nicky paying back Dani for Valencia 2006.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (MigsAngel @ Jul 17 2007, 03:55 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Hayden will make a few good shows, but his title defense pretty much ended in April and so Honda has little choice but to ignore him. Nicky can only help Dani win the title, so the rest of 2007 is Nicky paying back Dani for Valencia 2006.

Migs.....paying back Nicky for crashing him out at Portugal in Valencia was the beginning in my opinion, but I'll leave it at that. Nick knows he doesn't have a shot at the title, and he will be a good teammate and help Dani if there is a remote possiblility of overhauling Rossi in championship standings, but the chance is very remote. Were going to see a very determined Rossi from here on out...that's guaranteed. As far as overhaulin Stoner and Rossi? Hmmmm...I don't think its possible unless both get into demolition mode and take each other out every race, but hey anything is possible.

Pedrosa will also need help from Hayden. Hayden will need to be at the sharp end of the grid in all the remaining races and hope Stoner and Rossi make errors.

Anything is possible, but he'd need a shedload of good fortune, and Stoner and Vale to have the crappiest luck going!

Pete

can Dani win the title?

no. i really dont see it happening this year. if honda hadnt made such a mess of the 800's then yeah i would go as far as saying i think he had a serious chance at the crown but not now. he's too many points behind, stoner and rossi would have to have the luck that pasini has had this year and the chances of that are remote to say the least.

having said that, we are talking about motogp and it wouldnt be the first time i have been proved wrong...

I fully expect Pedrosa to pick up points this week at Laguna since it is not a strong track for Ducati or Bridgestone. If Pedrosa manages to put 5-10 points on stoner he would only be 47-42 points back (closer than Rossi last year).

Now that Hayden is competitive but out of the championship it seems like this helps Pedrosa b/c Hayden may be able to sneak in front of Stoner at a few tracks.

Laguna, PI, Sepang, & Valencia all seem like places where Hayden might be able to slip in front of Stoner. Sepang is the only track on that list that really plays well for Ducati.

P.S. I know Ducati went 1-2 at Valencia last year, but Hayden took .7 out of Bayliss in 2 laps before Rossi took a tumble. I think Hayden would have won that race even if the Doctor stayed up. Consequently, I think Dani would have finished on the podium if he weren't blocking.

Let's say Honda, Yamaha, & Michelin get their acts together over the summer break. If they come back and Rossi or Hayden or both finish in front of Stoner at those tracks & Pedrosa in front of Rossi and Hayden that should be enough points to take the title.

Obviously it's not that easy b/c Brno, Motegi & Sepang are Ducati heaven but it seems like it's not that far fetched either.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (mylexicon @ Jul 17 2007, 06:37 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotemain'>Obviously it's not that easy b/c Brno, Motegi & Sepang are Ducati heaven but it seems like it's not that far fetched either.

I find it hard to rate the tracks in favor of tires and factories this year. The new 800s has changed the picture quite a lot. New tires seems to have shifted preferences at som places. Capirossi won at Jerez last year. This year it was one of the weakest Ducati performances.
Sure the long straights suite the Ducati, but few saw what was comming in Italy, allthough it's easy to see in retrospect that the lack of any backstraight made it easier for the others.
At sachsenring few saw how important the uphill would be in the qualification, allthough it didn't play an important role in the race.

It's all good and make it exciting, but I won't give out the podium places based on previous preferences. This year it seems they have shifted a lot.

Seems very unlikely, he would first need to win a bunch of races and finish on the podium on the rest.
Then he needs Rossi to screw up a bit (unlikely) and then Casey to screw up big time (very unlikely).

rossi came back from 51 pts down to 5 ahead at about this time last year, but pedro is up against 2 strong racers so i would say he has 2 hopes,bob hope and no ....... hope !!