MotoGP Forum  

Go Back   MotoGP Forum > MotoGP Forum > MotoGP

MotoGP MotoGP Forum - MotoGP Class Motorcycle Racing Forum


Like Tree25Likes
Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
July 20th, 2020, 03:07 AM   #1
Senior Member
 
Joined: Aug 2015
From: Fremantle, Australia

Posts: 1,839
Likes: 789

Marquez's next move and the 2020 Champion

Most of us on here have always said that only Marquez will beat Marquez, much like how he did in 2015. This appears to have happened again. Personally I think Marquez has 2 options, he comes back and tries to win a miracle title - which in doing so would make him the GOAT. He equals Rossi's titles against stronger comp etc, along with missing races in a shortened season, or morale victory with most wins blah blah blah. But it's highly unlikely. Of course it will depend on the extent of the injury. If there is no nerve damage and hes back to almost 100% by the time they go to Brno then he is a chance.

His second option is to use this year together with Honda to almost treat every session and race like a test. Sure try to get the best possible results during the race but work the whole season towards finding solutions for all of the Honda's short comings and set himself up for the next few season with a much improved and more rideable bike. He's a competitor and wont want to give this season away but by doing so he could almost guarantee himself the next 3 or 4. It seems with the way the testing and schedule is set up improvements made can give an advantage that last for more than a season while issues can take seasons to work out. Personally I try to make every misfortune an opportunity and I believe this is how Marquez could achieve that.

This has thrown the 2020 title wide open. I think the title race comes down to 3 guys, Dovi, Vinales and Quartararo. Jack Miller may be the wild card. I read that Rins has fractured his shoulder not just dislocated it so i think his chances at the title are probably done.

The season so far is:
Spain Jerez 19 Jul
Andalusia Jerez 26 Jul
Czech Republic Brno 9 Aug
Austria Red Bull Ring 16 Aug
Styria Red Bull Ring 23 Aug
San Marino Misano 13 Sep
Emilia Romagna Misano 20 Sep
Catalunya Catalunya 27 Sep
France Le Mans 11 Oct
Aragon Motorland 18 Oct
Teruel Motorland 25 Oct
Europe Valencia 8 Nov
Valencia Valencia 15 Nov

Looking at each race
Jerez = advantage Yamaha. Vinales made the wrong tyre choice so may win next time out. If Dovi can find himself on the podium next weekend then he will be looking pretty good heading into Brno and Austria.

Brno & Austria = Advantage Dovi and Ducati. If Dovi can win 2 or 3 races here and pull Jack or Petrucci behind him to second in each race that favours Ducati he could head into Misano with a championship lead. Around this time is likely when Marquez will return, if Marquez is close to 100% holding him off and not having a Yamaha on the podium will be a huge help.

Misano - I would think advantage Yamaha but Ducati has also put some good results in at the circuit so this may be a 50/50

Catalunya - Advantage Dovi.

Le Mans - based on the past it should be advantage Dovi but I don't know if it will be that clear cut either.

Aragon - probably 50/50 but historically Dovi has done well here. If Marquez is 100% the race will be for second.

Valencia - Advantage the Yamaha boys. However Dovi did win here in 2018 so he could still get a decent result.

Other factors:
Rain - Dovi is arguably the best wet weather rider on the grid. You could argue between him and Marquez.

Consistency - Dovi historically has an advantage here. But quartararo is a bit of an unknown because last year was his rookie season. His constistency could be a key but only time will tell. Vinales' consistency is woeful and most likely will be the reason if he never wins a title

Double Ups:
Dovi works methodically so the double ups could be good for him. On the other hand if Vinales dials the Yamaha in well on the first race he will likely keep that advantage during the second race. Quartararo is still a bit of an unknown but as a young guy it can only be to his advantage and could allow him to do better the second time around if he has a bad weekend the first time around. I think it's probably worth mentioning if conditions change a fair bit between weekends it could cause Maverick some problems. He has been stuck a few times already not knowing why things that worked previously aren't working anymore.

Marquez:
If/when he comes back at almost 100% and starts competing for or winning races I think this favours Dovi. The other two have a huge hunger to beat Marquez and as happened to Vinales in PI last year could come unstuck trying to. Dovi on the other hand is more mature and will likely let Marquez go if Dovi is ahead of his championship rivals.

Changing/Difficult conditions: Slightly different to rain but advantage Dovi here. Fabio may be excellent in these kinds of conditions where its difficult but not really raining or a bike swap is required etc. Vinales is IIRC shithouse in them.

So based on the above, I think Dovi is the best chance at this championship. There only seems to be Jerez on the calendar where Yamaha will retain, at least historically a bike advantage over him. Changing conditions from weekend to weekend could through Vinales in a spin. Quartararo is still IMO a bit of an unknown, yes he just got his first win but it was due to Marquez throwing it away and Vinales' tyre choice may have been a factor as well. He had inconsistency last year much the same as Maverick did but in his rookie year it's hard to evaluate whether that was because it was his rookie year or like Vinales' he needs everything to line up.

I don't see Jack having the consistency to really challenge for the title, I could see Miller given basically the same support as Dovi if Petrucci continues.

One last thing. The rear tyre edge grip has seemed to catch a few guys out already, obviously none as bad as Marquez but we did see Mav have a similar moment and I'm sure I noticed a couple more similar over the weekend. That could end up being a factor in itself, if things riders could get away with last year when the bike was leaned over are now a no-go we could see the return of the highside.
SlartyBartFast and Bern1 like this.
p4p1 is offline  
 
July 20th, 2020, 04:41 AM   #2
Senior Member
 
Joined: Oct 2015
From: Quebec

Posts: 245
Likes: 78

I Ride: RZ500
Wow...holy wall of text. You wasted your time chief. No one is beating Fabio this year even if Marquez comes back...tomorrow. Mark this post. If last year and this weekend you haven't notice yet you are not paying attention.
Blackie Black likes this.
paparazzo is offline  
July 20th, 2020, 08:18 AM   #3
Senior Member
 
Hollywood's Avatar
 
Joined: Aug 2013
From: USA

Posts: 652
Likes: 219

I'm not ready to give this championship to Fabio and 1 round on a track that favors the Yamaha's corner speed. On a power track the Ducatis and Honda will be more of a factor.

What should Marc do? that was a nasty crash and a serious injury, all indication he will probably be out a month at least. How fast will he be able to rehab? and will he be able to keep his strength up (GP bike requires a lot of upper body strength and with a shoulder injury its hard to work out). Plus he is under contract for a long time, so he does not have to worry about fighting for a job. I think he should be smart about this, take as much time as he needs to come back at 100%.
Furiosa likes this.
Hollywood is offline  
July 20th, 2020, 09:21 AM   #4
Senior Member
 
moto vudu's Avatar
 
Joined: Oct 2015
From: Texas

Posts: 1,819
Likes: 769

Marc will be back and he'll attempt to prove his dominance again only to hit the gravel trap yet again... possibly ending his season if he has another highside.

I don't think there is an issue with rear edge grip. Marc was simply pushing the limit to make up time on others by braking later, carrying more corner speed, and getting on the throttle harder and earlier than other riders. There's only so much the tire can handle and his lack of respect for the bike bit him harder than usual.

Marc has this zone he gets into... we sometimes refer to it as he alter ego "Murder Mac" when his mentality is win at all costs and his ability to judge risk vs reward is severely compromised. There have been numerous incidents where he has hit other riders while attempting an unnecessary high risk pass instead of waiting another corner or two to safely overtake them. Nothing wrong with him having a strong desire to win, but given the speed he showed on Saturday. He would've won by dialing BACK his aggression and using his extra speed to wisely pick his spots. He has gotten away with a lot of things relatively unscathed but if he keeps it up with his high risk riding style the harsh realities of the sport will retire him.
paparazzo and Blackie Black like this.
moto vudu is offline  
July 20th, 2020, 09:42 AM   #5
Junior Member
 
Cutter's Avatar
 
Joined: Jun 2020
From: SoCal, USA

Posts: 26
Likes: 2

I Ride: BMW s1000r
I feel like Marquez was antsy for the season to resume, and got cocky wanting to show everyone up in the first race back. Dovi got this! Jack Miller is looking very promising as well
Cutter is offline  
July 20th, 2020, 01:40 PM   #6
Senior Member
 
Hollywood's Avatar
 
Joined: Aug 2013
From: USA

Posts: 652
Likes: 219

I agree, he used up that rear tire trying to catch back up and that is what caused him to loose it.
did Honda have another bike in the top 10? will they bring in someone like Bradl to sub for either Mar or Cal?
Hollywood is offline  
July 20th, 2020, 03:02 PM   #7
Senior Member
 
misfit's Avatar
 
Joined: May 2019
From: Wales, UK

Posts: 194
Likes: 87

I Ride: A bicycle. Heehee
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cutter View Post
I feel like Marquez was antsy for the season to resume, and got cocky wanting to show everyone up in the first race back. Dovi got this! Jack Miller is looking very promising as well
Can't say I blame Marquez for wanting to assert his authority in the first race. It's a mental game as well and when he went off, he knew this could put him on the backfoot with the mental boost the others would get from it. So he gave it his all. I hope that he comes out of this OK without nerve injury.
misfit is offline  
July 20th, 2020, 03:33 PM   #8
Junior Member
 
Cutter's Avatar
 
Joined: Jun 2020
From: SoCal, USA

Posts: 26
Likes: 2

I Ride: BMW s1000r
Quote:
Originally Posted by misfit View Post
Can't say I blame Marquez for wanting to assert his authority in the first race. It's a mental game as well and when he went off, he knew this could put him on the backfoot with the mental boost the others would get from it. So he gave it his all. I hope that he comes out of this OK without nerve injury.
If Marquez, God forbid in some hypothetical situation where he doesn't come back 100%, and Dovi or someone else starts continuously beating him, I think it would be easy to say that Marquez would still have a wide margin over the competition if it wasn't for the injury. The only hope Dovi, Fabio, Rins, even Rossi have to beat Marquez is a Marquez injury. And if said competition starts beating Marquez, we would know Marquez would still be light years ahead of them if not for injury. I wish Marquez the best and hope for a speedy recovery.
Cutter is offline  
July 21st, 2020, 03:40 AM   #9
Senior Member
 
Joined: Aug 2015
From: Fremantle, Australia

Posts: 1,839
Likes: 789

Marquez has no nerve damage from the crash and is aiming to return at Brno.
p4p1 is offline  
July 21st, 2020, 07:42 AM   #10
Senior Member
 
Joined: Apr 2015
From: Sometimes sweden, sometimes usa, sometimes greece.

Posts: 310
Likes: 33

With Marc out it is Dovis championship to lose. it will be a battle between him and vin.
imunderandoverit is offline  
Reply

  MotoGP Forum > MotoGP Forum > MotoGP

Tags
2020, champion, marquez, move



Thread Tools
Display Modes


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Valencia 2020 SadieMac MotoGP 0 February 13th, 2020 11:32 AM
Brno 2020 GP pepster1604 MotoGP 0 January 13th, 2020 03:14 AM
Dakar 2020 RallyWorld Dakar 0 December 2nd, 2019 07:56 AM
Another Piece Falls Into Place - Marquez Stays With Honda for 2019/2020 Macca MotoGP 46 March 5th, 2018 07:30 AM
How will the World Champion Marc Marquez cope without Stoners crew next season? Big Jorge MotoGP 18 November 11th, 2013 02:47 PM


Facebook Twitter Google+ RSS Feed



Copyright © 2005-2020 Powerslide. All rights reserved.
MotoGP Forum is a MotoGP enthusiast's forum, but it is in no way affiliated with, nor does it represent MotoGP or Dorna Sports, S.L. of Madrid, Spain.